Himachal’s third force

Vepa Rao
The Statesman, 1 December

The Bahujan Samaj Party could not have timed its major foray into Himachal politics better. It has put both the big parties ~ the Congress and BJP ~ on their guard and has injected into them a dose of insecurity. Discuss the forthcoming, second phase of Assembly election with any one, it ends on a sardonic note: “Let’s see what the BSP will do to the voting patterns. Except the die-hard workers in both the camps who “publicly” dismiss its impact, the general feeling is, “kuch bhi ho sakta hai (anything can happen)”. Such is the magic of Ms Mayawati's well-orchestrated “social engineering” that it is catching the ordinary people’s imagination.

It is also catching in its sprawled out net many disgruntled but experienced leaders (from the bigger parties) who have to either bow to party impositions or face political wilderness. Its role as a sanctuary for “rebels” from the Congress and BJP ~ especially those denied party tickets ~ is becoming more defined by the day.

Many from both the big parties camping in Delhi for tickets were in regular touch with the BSP so that they could switch over and fight the elections under its banner, instead of sitting out in the cold for another five years. The concept of “social engineering” with its exalted “inclusive” philosophy can provide just the right face-saving umbrella to come under.

It’s the power struggle within the Congress and the BJP that has weakened the two big parties and provided the ideal breeding conditions for the “third force” in Himachal Pradesh. The regular mud-slinging matches between the warring factions are the stuff of gossip everywhere, thereby lowering the two big parties’ image and their stalwarts' stature in the public eye. Both the big parties have ruled at different times, causing disillusionment among the people, as also the inevitable “anti-incumbency” factor. Bad experiences of some people during not only the present regime but also all the previous tenures of the BJP could be a force to reckon with. Memories of good deeds die quickly; but bad memories fester and infect the public faster.

Congress spokesmen claim that the BSP will cut into only the BJP votebanks; while its counterparts in the BJP have been returning the “compliment”! They also hope that this effort to set up “the third front” will fail ~ just like the two other attempts in the past by disgruntled Congress leaders, who eventually returned to the Congress fold.
Many sceptics quote figures from the last Assembly election (in 2003). The BSP had put up only 23 candidates (in a total of 68 constituencies) ~ they all lost, polling a total of only 21,469 votes. The BSP’s choice of the former Congress leader Major Vijay Singh Mankotia ~ the Rajput hailing from Kangra ~ as its chief in Himachal Pradesh may not inspire confidence among the Dalit voters.

The Schedule Caste population in District Kangra (with the largest number of Assembly seats) alone is about 22 per cent, while the OBCs account for 30 per cent. There are also doubts about how well and how long Ms Mayawati and Major Mankotia could work together ~ their political cultures and styles of functioning are so different. The fact remains that the BSP has not done much work at the grass-roots level in the state and has woken up to the coming election a bit late.

But at the same time, the main leaders in the Congress and the BJP are also unable to ignore the BSP’s threat to their parties’ supremacy in Himachal politics. That they issue statements underplaying the BSP’s importance regularly amounts to their admission of the new player’s potential to upset their applecarts in many constituencies ~ especially where victories hang by thin margins.

Of course, no one would think of the BSP forming the government, or even winning many seats. Political stalwarts in the state were amused when Ms Mayawati anointed Major Mankotia as Himachal's “next chief minister”, while launching her party’s electoral bid at an impressive public rally at Dharamshala in July.

Even she, a shrewd politician, would not be nursing illusions of capturing the state so soon. But power-sharing could be possible, just the way the former Union minister Mr Sukh Ram’s Himachal Vikas Congress helped the BJP to form the government with a wafer-thin majority in 1998. Even such a small gain could be one more step in the big elephant’s march towards Delhi.

This much-bandied prospect of Ms Mayawati becoming the Prime Minister sooner or later has also become another attraction. “Who knows” and “why not” are typical responses we hear often. The fiery Dalit lady who rose from a humble background to vanquish political giants and is now seen to be uniting all castes (unlike other parties that have been playing divisive politics) has somewhere touched a chord in many people’s hearts.

Ms Mayawati’s charisma among women voters cannot be underestimated ~ especially because in male-monopolised Himachal politics, both the Congress and the BJP have been treating women as mere appendages. Besides, who wouldn’t hitch his or her wagon to a fast rising national star like Ms Mayawati!

It is also believed that the BSP is ready to unload cash in plenty for the election campaign. Some say it would be more than about Rs 50 crore ~ a whopping amount in a small, cash-starved state this. The party has ferried around Major Mankotia and company in a hired chopper during the recent polls in the tribal areas. Whispers were doing the rounds that large envelopes containing currency notes and advertisement material were handed to journalists at Ms Mayawati’s Press conference in Dharamshala in July. In this state where honesty and simplicity still prevail, such bits of gossip make people sit up. To be fair, they may even be wild allegations. But during election time, such widespread perceptions in the public may count.

Data suggests that on an average only Rs 3 lakh was spent officially by 80 per cent of the winning candidates in Himachal’s last Assembly election in 2003 ~ against the Rs 7 lakh limit fixed by the Election Commission. And, the value system here, too, is no longer insulated ~ there must be many worthies who will go after the scent of big money. There are all the signs that money will wield more influence in the coming elections than before.

Himachal is on the threshold of an industrial boom. Mushrooming industries with money-bags in regions like Baddi and Barotiwala are waiting to fish in troubled waters. The BSP’s think-tank and its experienced managers are probably better equipped to handle such “opportunities” as local, self-conscious leaders. Add to it, the prospects of what people refer to as “UP-style politics” (aggressive, no-holds-barred efforts) entering the state!

The BSP’s role in the coming polls should be understood against this wider, emerging canvas of life in the state ~ not merely in terms of a few seats it may win or its inroads into other parties’ votebanks. Its potential to modify the composition of, and attitudes in, the other two big parties is considerable.

It can change Himachal’s political culture and chemistry in the long run. Provided of course, it works for long-term gains in the state, instead of lapsing into silence after the polls.

(The author is The Statesman’s Shimla-based correspondent.)