THE INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY - Developments in West Bengal

Amartya Sen
The Telegraph, 29-30 December

I see that our rajyapal, my friend Gopal Gandhi, told the graduating students of Jadavpur University, at its 52nd convocation on December 24, “Students who pass from this university should have a clarity of mind so that they speak lucidly and logically.” I have never been a student at Jadavpur University, but I have taught there, and I decided that Gopal Gandhi’s firm instruction must apply to me as well: we cannot ask the students to do something that their teachers cannot do. Certainly, there is need for seeking some clarity and reach in speaking about events and developments in West Bengal right now.

The first thing to note is that there are some very important distinctions to be made between the different issues involved in the current debates — distinctions that are sometimes missed. The first, and perhaps the most immediate, distinction is that between a general economic strategy and the general politics of governance (including matters of law and order) associated with that economic strategy. A second distinction relates not to the economics-politics division but arises within the political domain: that between the politics of administration (including maintaining law and order with justice) and the general importance of some political values, particularly that of democracy. The third distinction arises within the economic domain, in particular the difference between the nature of a general economic strategy, on the one hand, and the specific economic proposals, on the other, that are devised to carry out that strategy. I begin with the general industrial strategy that underlies the economic policy programme, but this will have to be supplemented, in the second essay (to be published tomorrow in this two-essay presentation), with considerations of the politics of governance, the importance of democracy, and the translation of the general strategy into concrete economic policies.

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I begin, then, with the policy strategy of rapidly industrializing West Bengal, involving various means but firmly including the use of private investment in industries and in modern services in this state. I would argue that this general strategy is basically correct. What is so good about rapid industrial development? The basic point is simple enough. In removing poverty, incomes would have to be raised (though there are a variety of other things also to be considered, since we do not live by income alone), and it is hard to do effective and secure income-raising without substantial industrial expansion. This works not just through direct income generation but also through its indirect consequences in energizing an economy and generating new skills (critics of industrial expansion often overlook the extent to which different parts of a working economy are interdependent). It is not surprising that no substantial country ever has crossed the barrier of poverty without very substantial industrialization. If the need for an industrial base and the corresponding skills applies to all countries in the world (as I believe it does), it has a particularly strong relevance to Bengal which was one of the more prosperous parts of the world based on strong industries in pre-colonial days, and was especially advanced in textile production. That industrial advantage was lost during colonial rule when the pre-mechanized industries went downhill without new and modern industries coming up, and to this has to be added the reputation that Calcutta developed in the second half of the 20th century as a hotbed of industrial action, scaring industrial investors away.

Strong rejection of this general approach comes from at least two distinct groups. There are, first of all, those who simply do not want capitalists in West Bengal, and do not, in particular, want to invite private capital to help industrialize the state. What is the point, the politically determined typically ask, of having a communist government if it is going to turn all soft on capitalism? The second group of opponents are on a very different track, even though in denouncing the government they can be strong allies. This group of critics would not want to take land away from agricultural use. There are some genuine “physiocrats” among this group, with agriculture-fetishism and a strong belief in the unparalleled — almost mystical — merits of agriculture. Their arguments were adequately rebutted about 200 years ago, and if life has ceased to be quite as “nasty, brutish and short” as Thomas Hobbes found it, the contribution of industrial development to that change would be hard to overlook.

However, the agriculture-favouring opponents have presented some other arguments that are indeed very weighty. Two in particular deserve very serious consideration. Some oppose the diversion of fertile and productive land into industrial use, which applies to some extent to Singur as well, since such land is clearly very useful for agriculture. Another important argument points to the possibility that taking land from agriculture would impoverish the agriculturalists who live on that land, no matter how large an income the new enterprises may actually produce for other people. I have seen various arguments making this point forcefully, including in one case invoking — I believe appropriately — my own concerns about entitlement failures of specific occupation groups and the effects that this might have on starvation of those groups (no matter what happens to the totality of incomes).

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How strong is the anti-capitalist high theory against private investment, with an implicit vision of a hugely prosperous State ownership economy? In particular, should not communists shun private investment? It is sad for high theory, but in most cases that would be a mistake, if the communists want rapid economic development for the removal of poverty (as they clearly do). It is not an accident that every communist country reliant on pervasive state ownership in the world has either moved to welcoming private investment quite substantially (as China has done), or has declined and been replaced by straightforward capitalist systems (as has happened in Russia and other countries in the former Soviet Union). The exception is Cuba, but its economic success is extremely limited. It remains a poor economy.

But is there, then, nothing to learn from Cuba? There is, in fact, a hugely positive lesson in the Cuban experience about how much can be achieved, despite economic poverty, through excellent public healthcare and school education. Despite its low income, Cuba has nearly the same life expectancy as the much richer population of the United States of America, primarily because of its medical system which is good and which does not leave a huge proportion of the population uninsured, as the US one does. There is, however, also a precise lesson here about how one need not become a capitalist camp follower simply because of accepting the pragmatic case for using private investment in industries. The role of the State in many fields, including in universal medical care and in universal schooling, remains extremely strong, and it is a lesson that has often been missed, even by countries that are formally communist.

Take China. Pre-reform China, before the privatization that began in 1979, had already achieved a high life expectancy (68 years at birth) and very high literacy rates through universal public healthcare and public education. To be sure, China also had a terribly inefficient communal agriculture, and this, combined with a general lack of democracy and a free media, was mainly responsible for the famines of 1958-61 which killed between 23 and 30 million people (the existence of this catastrophe is now denied only in the Indian subcontinent, not in China or anywhere else, and then again only by some whom I would call hard-core theorists — it is hard to call them Marxists since Marx had such strong respect for empirical information). But the general system of public healthcare with universal coverage and universal schooling had dramatic achievements in pre-reform China, and in 1979, China was 14 years ahead of India in life expectancy at birth.

The Chinese economy was, however, in a mess, and the reforms of 1979 put agriculture on a much surer footing through private farming under the new “responsibility system”. In industries too, the reforms achieved a great deal, when China went on to use private investment drawn from all over the world. But the reforms did not stop there. Such was the new belief in the magic of the market (China leaped from a comprehensive anti-market position to a comprehensive pro-market philosophy) that the Chinese also abolished overnight the entitlement to free healthcare for all. Everyone now had to rely on private purchase of health insurance, except in the relatively few cases where the employing organization did that for the employee. The bulk of the population got suddenly excluded from entitlement to public health service, and it is now thought that no more than 20 per cent of the population has assured healthcare. Since then, China’s progress in health and longevity has slowed down dramatically. Even India has been catching up with China, despite the messy state of India’s own healthcare: India’s shortfall from China in life expectancy at birth has been halved since 1979, from 14 years to 7 years. And a state like Kerala with universal medical coverage by the State (even though private medicine also thrives in Kerala on the secure foundation of public medical entitlement for all) is very substantially ahead of China in life expectancy. To take another measure, in 1979, China and Kerala both had an infant mortality rate of 37 per thousand, and this has now fallen only to 28 in China, whereas the rate is less than half that in Kerala (around 10 to 14, depending on which survey you use).

There is, thus, a lesson from Cuba that China missed (about the merits of universal public healthcare) and a lesson from China that Cuba missed (about the positive role of private investment in industries). And there are huge lessons from the experiences of the rest of the world. India in general, and West Bengal in particular, can learn from all. Neither a comprehensive anti-privatization philosophy, nor a comprehensive pro-privatization position, would offer what is needed.

Since I am now what is called a “senior citizen” —an euphemism for being old and feeble — when people are supposed to turn autobiographical, indulging incessantly in reminiscences, I shall follow that hallowed practice myself, beginning with my college days in the early Fifties. Like many students in Calcutta at that time, I was quite firmly on the left of the political spectrum, without joining any political party. If there was anything in particular that worried me greatly, it was the scepticism with which democracy — usually called “bourgeois democracy” — was viewed by those with whose radical commitment to economic equity and social justice I was, otherwise, much in sympathy. Krushchev’s denunciation of Stalin at the Twentieth Congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union in 1956 was yet to come, but we knew something already about the demise of other political parties in the Soviet Union, the arbitrary arrests and trials and purges, the “voluntary confessions” of former comrades, the famine in the Ukraine, the devastation of independent workers’ unions, and so on. And yet it was hard to join the political opponents of the Left, who very often deserved their reactionary reputation and seemed indifferent to removing terrible economic deprivations and social inequity with adequate speed and urgency.

So the chosen position of many of us was to remain broadly in support of the Left, with the hope that problems such as inadequate appreciation of the value of democracy and liberty would get rectified over time. A big cluster of people I knew well, including such diverse personalities as Sukhamoy Chakravarty, Satyajit Ray, P.C. Mahalanobis (to name just a few, with very different involvements and of varying ages) had somewhat similar attitudes about the Left, and over the years, this yielded a sizeable Left-oriented civil society in Calcutta. The broad support of the Left civil society might not have swung any elections, but it did make some difference to what was written in the newspapers and books, and what came out in films and theatres.

Establishment Left politics did, in fact, come to terms gradually with democracy and a multi-party liberal society. A deep-rooted conservatism might have prevented the CPI(M) from “de-Stalinizing” formally (I remember telling my 11-year-old daughter in answer to her question about who the moustached person was in the posters at the Howrah station, “Look at him carefully, Indrani, since you will not see his picture anywhere else in the world any more: his name was Joe Stalin”). But the operational beliefs of the party did change over time, and the dismissal of “bourgeois democracy” gave way to multi-party politics, defence of minority rights, championing of habeas corpus, celebration of media freedom — indeed most of the basic ingredients of democratic practice.

However, central to democracy is also the idea of “government by discussion” (I think John Stuart Mill, a socialist himself, floated the term, but it probably pre-dated him substantially). The question I am about to ask is whether some of the turmoil of the past year relates to a less vigorous practice of discussion than should ideally go with decisions and their execution. This may apply both to governmental policies at the top and to the strong-armed behaviour of party activists down the line. I do, of course, see the difficulty in having “government by discussion” when the principal opposition party seems much more keen on shutting down the town than in chatting about problems and their solutions, but the government does have a huge responsibility, especially given its large majority in the assembly, in initiating and trying hard to make a success of the dialogic route.

In yesterday’s essay, I defended the general strategy of industrialization chosen by the West Bengal government, including the participation of private investment. And yet, even though that policy is, I think, right, I would not say that there is nothing much to discuss there. A discussion allows differentiations and variations in a way that the announcement of an already cemented policy does not. I think, for example, the merits of the economic plans for Singur and Nandigram are hugely different. This is not only because the Nandigram plan called for ten times the amount of land (10,000 acres) than Singur needed (1,000 acres). It is also because Singur residents are, in general, much less dependent on agricultural income than Nandigram residents (the percentage of labouring families dependent on agriculture is 32 per cent in Singur and 52 per cent in Nandigram), and have much less risk of minority vulnerability (the Muslim population is 9 per cent of the total population in Singur, as opposed to 32 per cent in Nandigram). No less importantly, the Singur project is from an industrial group, the Tatas, with the best record in India of good relations with workers and sensitivity to public concerns, whereas the Nandigram proposal came from a group not known here in India and very often not thought to be terribly admirable by those who know something about it abroad.

The Nandigram proposal is now evidently abandoned (after abusive exchanges, rowdy demonstrations, street fights, violent evictions of residents on both sides of the divide in sequence, and most alarmingly, police shooting and killing), but the abandonment could have emerged on the basis of discussions before the parties involved declared full-scale war. There are things to discuss about the specifics of the Singur project as well, including global and local issues about the environment. There are also more immediate issues of land acquisition and pricing, which take me back to the arguments mentioned in the first essay on the possible case against transferring land from agricultural use to industrial utilization.

Is it fair to acquire land at prices which, though substantially higher than current market values of the land, when confined to agricultural use, are undoubtedly quite a bit lower than the prices that these bits of land would have commanded if they were sold in the market after being released from confinement to agriculture? Going further, is it really essential for the government to acquire the land that is needed, rather than allowing the industrial firm involved to buy it? Had the land been voluntarily sold to the Tatas, there would be no ground for complaint about non-consent, and no sense of being hard done by through governmental fiat. Such private purchase might, of course, be difficult to achieve when the plots are divided into quite tiny holdings, but the general policy, now in widespread use, of thinking of acquisition first, rather than of purchase, seems rather breathless.

It is not hard to see that the industrialists might favour, for reasons of relative costs and the ability to attract good management, locations that happen to involve fertile land (Singur’s proximity to Calcutta clearly moved the Tatas), and it is also true that the new industries can generate large incomes — much larger than the agriculture it replaces, even when based on multiple-cropping. But we also have to see where the new incomes go. The worry about the subsistence and living standard of the owners and cultivators of acquired lands is not, thus, misplaced, though the problem would be far less had the land transfer followed sales rather than compulsory acquisition. There is surely much to discuss here.

There is also the consideration that a larger aggregate income can be a huge source of public revenue, which can be used for any public purpose. It is often said that the country is not getting anything substantial, because of the inequality of the generated income, from India’s high rate of growth of gross domestic product. One reason why this critique may be mistaken is that public revenue is going up much faster than even the GDP growth that is generating this revenue expansion. In 2003-4, for India as a whole, the economic growth of 6.5 per cent was exceeded by the revenue growth of 9.5 per cent, and in 2004-5 to 2006-7, the growth rates of 7.5 per cent, 9.0 per cent, and 9.4 per cent have been respectively bettered by the expansion rates of government revenue of 12.5 per cent, 9.7 per cent, and 11.2 per cent (all figures in “real terms”, that is corrected for price change). This creates a wonderful opportunity to make much larger investments in public education, healthcare, public transport, environmental protection, and other public goods. There is, however, a catch here, since the SEZs that are being set up across the country do not do this — they are exempt from most taxes. Singur is not, of course, an SEZ (though it did get some tax concessions), but the proper SEZs, which are springing up all over the country, are huge forgone opportunities for raising public revenue.

There was — and is — strong ground for much more discussion on the case for and against SEZs in India as a whole, and in West Bengal in particular. It seems reasonable enough to propose particular tax concessions, as the West Bengal government did with the Tatas and may do with other industrial groups to break the isolation of West Bengal in the world of modern industries and enterprises, but the wholesale forgoing of public revenue in SEZs as a general policy certainly demands much closer examination and more critical scrutiny.

I began by talking about the Left civil society in Calcutta and West Bengal. As someone who, broadly speaking, belongs to that group, I do not think I have seen it as sceptical and alienated from Left politics ever before. And the shift goes, I think, well beyond the intellectuals of Left civil society and applies to people who are less vocal but whose disquiet about their previous favourites is not at all hard to detect. There is, I think, quite widespread frustration about not having much discussion on what seem eminently discussable questions. Joe Stalin, who smiled down from the walls of the Howrah station 20 years ago, would not approve, but the establishment Left does have to remember the long tradition of fighting for democracy and voice and dialogue in Left movements.

My support for the general economic strategy of industrialization of the government of West Bengal cannot but be combined with questions about the importance of democratic values. I believe I am right in claiming that more practice of “government by discussion” would have not only enriched and improved the process of economic decision-making, it would have actually led to better economic plans and better translation of the general strategy of industrializing — or re-industrializing — West Bengal. If this applies to the past, it is no less relevant for the future.

BB buried amid mass grief, anger

By M.B. Kalhoro
Dawn, 29 December

LARKANA, Dec 28: Overcome with grief and shock, thousands of people converged on Garhi Khuda Bux to bury former prime minister Benazir Bhutto next to her father Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in her family mausoleum on Friday.

Earlier, the slain opposition leader’s body was flown to Sukkur from Rawalpindi in a C-130 plane. Her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, and children Bilawal (19), Bakhtawar (17) and Aseefa (14) came aboard the same plane. The body was then taken to Moenjodaro airport by helicopter.

Mourners wept inconsolably and beat their chests when Ms Bhutto’s body finally reached Naudero House. They jostled to see the coffin of their leader who lost her life while acknowledging the cheers of jubilant party activists near Rawalpindi’s Liaquat Bagh.

Ghinwa Bhutto, the estranged sister-in-law of the slain prime minister, came to Naudero House. She was accompanied by Fatima Bhutto and Zulfikar Junior.

Sanam Bhutto, the youngest daughter of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, flew in from London. She has lost her three elder siblings to unnatural deaths. Her father was hanged in 1979 after being deposed in a military coup.

Mr Zardari and Bilawal sat in the ambulance that took the coffin, draped with the green, red and black tricolour of the PPP, to Garhi Khuda Bux from Naudero. Former Larkana nazim Khursheed Junejo drove the ambulance.

The road to the mausoleum was packed with so many Bhutto supporters that the journey of a couple of kilometres took over two hours. Mourners, who came mostly on foot, climbed the rooftop of the three-domed mausoleum.

The PPP leaders who attended the funeral included Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Raja Pervez Ashraf, Naheed Khan, Senator Dr Safdar Abbasi, Nisar Ahmed Khuhro, Syed Qaim Ali Shah, Raza Rabbani and Taj Haidar.

Mr Zardari, Bilawal, Mr Junejo, Shahid Bhutto, Nadir Magsi and Zulfikar Junior lowered Ms Bhutto’s body in the grave.

Wearing a black dress, a tearful Bilawal laid a wreath at his mother’s grave.

Many mourners chanted slogans against President Pervez Musharraf, former Sindh chief minister Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim and the United States. Women wailed as men, struggling to fight off tears, said the people of Sindh had been orphaned.

Enraged protesters set fire to a post office, a utility store and a local bank branch. They also torched Khushhal Khan Khattak Express whose 10 bogies had already been set ablaze at the Shahnawaz Bhutto railway station.

In Larkana, protesters went on the rampage and torched the offices of district nazim. They burnt five vehicles including two fire brigade vehicles standing in the secretariat, sources said.

The protesters damaged gold shops in Shahi Bazaar and burnt tyres. They damaged the main Wapda office and set fire to vehicles standing there. They also set ablaze the railway office and the municipal committee offices. They also damaged the offices of the Sui Southern Gas Company and a local telecommunications company.

Rioting took place at such a scale that smouldering vehicles stood on most Larkana roads at the end of the day.

Countrywide protests, killings and arson

Dawn Report, 29 December

ISLAMABAD: At least 27 people were killed and many wounded in violence during a nationwide outpouring of grief and a protest strike over Benazir Bhutto’s assassination while army was deployed in 16 districts of Sindh and paramilitary forces elsewhere in the country.

A complete general strike and funeral prayer congregations in all the country’s four provinces, Azad Kashmir and Northern Areas marked the day as the former prime minister, killed in an unidentified assassin’s gun-and-bomb attack in Rawalpindi on Thursday, was buried beside her father Zulfikar Ali Bhutto at their ancestral Garhi Khuda Bux village.

But protests at several places turned violent, with demonstrators attacking and burning both public and private properties, mostly in Sindh where 17 people were reported killed in Karachi and 10 in eight towns in other parts of the province.

An army statement in Rawalpindi said the troops had been deployed in 16 Sindh districts, including Karachi, on the requisition of the provincial government, to assist the local administration restore law and order.

“Army authorities have been asked to coordinate law-enforcement action being conducted by police and (paramilitary) Rangers,” said the statement, quoting a spokesman of the Inter-Services Public Relations Directorate. “In case the situation goes out of hand of these agencies, army units will be employed to restore law and order.”

It said the army had taken over security of “sensitive installations and national” assets in Karachi and other places in Sindh and that troops were patrolling in the troubled localities of Karachi, Larkana, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Thatta and Badin.

SINDH: In Karachi, seven workers were burnt to death after a factory was set on fire. Two policemen were also killed. Hospitals received eight bodies with gunshot wounds. Over 400 vehicles and 18 banks were burnt in the city since Thursday night.

In other parts of Sindh, incidents of violence completely paralysed civic life on second day of mourning with 10 people killed and around two dozens injured.

Two deaths each were reported from Jacobabad and Thatta and one each from Mirpurkhas, Hyderabad, Badin, Matiari, Tando Allahyar and Khairpur.

Government properties, banks, private vehicles, gas and petrol stations, telephone exchanges were prime targets of attackers in every district.

The bungalow of former Sindh chief minister Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim, who a family member said, had gone to Saudi Arabia for “Umra pilgrimage” on Thursday night, was torched in G.M.B. Colony in Qasimabad.

ISLAMABAD: Protests in Islamabad largely remained peaceful but students of the Quaid-i-Azam University burnt a bus of their own institution.

PUNJAB: In the cities and towns of Punjab, protesters became violent in several towns, burning property and election campaign banners of candidates belonging to the formerly ruling Pakistan Muslim League.

Sargodha witnessed constant clashes between police and protesters for hours, according to the Online news agency.

In Attock district, PPP activists set fire to posters and flags of a PML candidate for the National Assembly, former Punjab chief minister Chaudhry Pervez Elahi.

Jaranwala also witnessed a rowdy day with protests, cases of arson and stoning of a Wapda building and a local school. Six police personnel were reported injured there.

NWFP: In the NWFP, enraged protesters set a police post and railway station on fire at Taru Jabba, near Peshawar, snatched guns from police and also set ablaze two official motorcycles at the police post.

The police post was set on fire after police reportedly fired in the air to disperse the crowd.

The protesters set ablaze at least three vehicles and a motorbike in other areas and an office of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement at Peshawar’s Nishtarabad Chowk and the PML provincial office at Gulbahar locality.

BALOCHISTAN: In Balochistan, a railway station, several banks and other public and private buildings were set on fire as riots erupted in some areas of the province.

At least four policemen were injured in attacks on police posts while Quetta remained cut off by rail as Pakistan Railways cancelled all outgoing trains while passenger trains that had left on Thursday evening for Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi were stopped at Sibi railway station and returned to Quetta on Friday morning.

Jaffarabad district administration called out Frontier Corps personnel to control the law and order situation.

In Turbat, police arrested 15 PPP workers for forcibly closing shops.

But the overall law and order situation in the province remained under control after the government deployed extra personnel of police, the Balochistan Constabulary and Frontier Corps in Quetta and other areas.

However, at least three banks were burnt down in Dera Allahyar, a town neighbouring Sindh, where PPP workers and supporters took over roads at around 9am and blocked the highway between Balochistan and Sindh.

The protesters also attacked and set on fire branches of three banks. According to reports, currency notes worth several millions of rupees and all record were burnt.

Sources said a group of protesters attacked Dera Allahyar railway station and torched it. They also burnt down the office of Nadra, the district office of Excise and Taxation and PML election office and attacked a bank branch, the office of District Police Officer and Civil Hospital but law-enforcement agencies did not allow them to enter these buildings.

Riots were also reported in Dera Murad Jamali where protesters burnt a bank branch and destroyed the official vehicle of a senior police officer.

Protesters also attacked police posts in Dera Allahyar and beat up policemen, four of whom were injured.

Govt accused of destroying evidence

Dawn Reporter, 29 December

LAHORE, Dec 28: Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Secretary General of the Punjab chapter of Pakistan People’s Party has accused the authorities of destroying evidence of the assassination of PPP chairperson Benazir Bhutto.

He said in a statement issued here on Friday that the evidence had been destroyed by washing the blast site outside the Liaquat Bagh with high-pressure water hoses.

He said that the government had first failed to act on the complaints about ‘unsatisfactory’ security arrangements for the former prime minister and now its officials had destroyed the evidence.

He directed the party organisations to arrange funeral prayers and ‘Soyem’ for Ms Bhutto in every city of the province on Sunday.


Email to be used only ‘if I am killed’

NEW YORK, Dec 28: It was a story CNN’s Wolf Blitzer hoped he would never have to report — an email sent through an intermediary to him by Benazir Bhutto complaining about her security. Conditions of use: only if she were killed.

Ms Bhutto wrote to Wolf Blitzer that if anything happened to her, “I would hold (President Pervez) Musharraf responsible.”

Mr Blitzer received the email on Oct 26 from Mark Siegel, a friend and long-time Washington spokesman for Ms Bhutto. That was eight days after she narrowly escaped an attempt on her life on Oct 18.

Benazir Bhutto wrote to Blitzer: “I have been made to feel insecure by his (Musharraf’s) minions,” that specific improvements had not been made to her security arrangements, and that the president was responsible.

Blitzer agreed to the conditions before receiving the e-mail. He said on Friday that he called Siegel shortly after seeing it to see if there was any way he could use it on CNN, but was told firmly it could only be used if she were killed. Siegel could not say why she had insisted on those conditions.

Blitzer reported on the e-mail late on Thursday. He noted that Ms Bhutto had written a piece for CNN.com that mentioned her security concerns and that American politicians had tried to intervene on her behalf to make her feel safer. “I didn’t really think that it was a story we were missing out on,” he said. “I don’t think the viewers were done any disservice by my trying to hold on to this.”

Wolf Blitzer was the only journalist sent such a message, Siegel said. He also sent the e-mail to Representative Steve Israel, a New York Democrat.

Siegel said he did not believe Ms Bhutto’s opinions had changed since she wrote the e-mail. Her message specifically mentioned she had requested four police vehicles surrounding her vehicle when travelling; Siegel said it seemed evident from pictures taken at the assassination scene that the request was not fulfilled.

Ms Bhutto did not necessarily believe that President Musharraf wanted her dead, but felt many people around him did, he said.

Her husband contacted Siegel on Thursday to remind him about the e-mail message and to make sure it got out, he said.

Wolf Blitzer said he had no regrets about the way he handled the story. To report about it while she was still alive would have meant going back on his word, he said. “I don’t think there is a clear black-and-white in this situation,” he said. “I did what I think was right.”—AP

BB manuscript rushed into print : Book to be published by Feb

NEW YORK, Dec 28: Immediately after receiving the manuscript of Benazir Bhutto’s new book, leading publisher HarperCollins decided to move quickly to get it on the shelves by February, following Thursday’s assassination of the former prime minister.

The book, entitled “Reconciliation: Islam, Democracy and the West,” was part political treatise and part memoir of the first woman elected prime minister of a Muslim nation.

HarperCollins had signed up the book for an advance estimated to be around $75,000 shortly before she returned to Pakistan in October after years of living in exile.

“We have a finished manuscript,” said HarperCollins CEO Jane Friedman, who learned about Ms Bhutto’s murder from an email alert.

When HarperCollins Executive Editor Tim Duggan sealed the deal with Ms Bhutto, he said: “Pakistan is an increasingly volatile place, and Ms Bhutto’s book is an eye-opening look at the mistakes we’ve made in the region and what we can do to correct them -- as well as what the consequences will be if we don’t.”—PPI

Transcript of ‘Baitullah’s phone call’

ISLAMABAD, Dec 28: Here is the AFP’s translation of the transcript of the alleged telephone conversation on Friday from senior Al Qaeda leader Baitullah Mehsud to another militant that the Pakistan interior ministry said had been intercepted after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

The ministry said it had been translated from Pashto to Urdu. This is our translation from the ministry’s Urdu to English.

Maulvi Sahib (MS): Assalaam Aleikum.

Baitullah Mehsud (BM): Waleikum Assalaam.

MS: Chief, how are you?

BM: I am fine.

MS: Congratulations, I just got back during the night.

BM: Congratulations to you, were they our men?

MS: Yes they were ours.

BM: Who were they?

MS: There was Saeed, there was Bilal from Badar and Ikramullah.

BM: The three of them did it?

MS: Ikramullah and Bilal did it.

BM: Then congratulations.

MS: Where are you? I want to meet you.

BM: I am at Makeen (town in South Waziristan tribal region), come over, I am at Anwar Shah’s house.

MS: OK, I’ll come.

BM: Don’t inform their house for the time being.

MS: OK.

BM: It was a tremendous effort. They were really brave boys who killed her.

MS: Mashallah. When I come I will give you all the details.

BM: I will wait for you. Congratulations, once again congratulations.

MS: Congratulations to you.

BM: Anything I can do for you?

MS: Thank you very much.

BM: Assalaam Aleikum.

MS: Waaleikum Assalaam.

—AFP

MODI has it easy

Statesman News Service, 24 December

GANDHINAGAR, Dec. 23: Gujarat today voted chief minister Mr Narendra Modi back to power for another five-year term, in an election which he fought entirely on his own steam and in his own terms. Mr Modi will be elected leader of the BJP Legislature Party tomorrow. After being elected leader he will stake claim to form a government. Mr Modi will be sworn in as chief minister for the third time on Thursday.

Interestingly, while the BJP managed a sweeping win all over the state, except in central Gujarat, seven ministers of the Modi Cabinet lost this election. They are Mr IK Jadeja, Mr Bhupendrasinh Chudasama, Mr Prabhatsinh Chauhan, Mr Kaushik Patel, Mr Ratilal Sureja, Mr Dilip Thakor and Mr Chatrasinh Mari.

For the BJP rebels, it was a worse scenario, as only one, Mr Bavukabhai Undhad, could win out of 10. The big losers were Mr Dhirubhai Gajera and Mr Becharji Badhani, who led the rebel brigade.

The chief minister termed the election result as “a positive vote for the government to continue’’. He told reporters that “the people have rejected negativism. The Gujarat virodhi (opposition) forces have been defeated. The slogan Jeetega Gujarat has got more power after the result’’, he said. Looking ahead, Mr Modi said that in 2010 the state will observe its golden jubilee and he appealed to all parties and people to join hands “for a golden future for Gujarat”.

The chief minister mentioned that the Prime Minister had congratulated him on his victory. When asked whether former BJP chief minister Mr Keshubhai Patel had done the same, he said: “I accept congratulations from any quarter, and even if you congratulate me, I shall accept’’.

Mr Modi, who won from the Maninagar constituency with an increased margin of 87,000 votes, defeating Mr Dinsha Patel of the Congress, termed the win as “a victory of the 5.5 crore people of Gujarat’’. He thanked party workers and central leaders and said the victory “was the result of a joint effort. This is the fifth time the BJP has won since 1990 in Gujarat, Mr Modi pointed out.

Mr Modi indicated that he would address the Vijay Diwas rally in Ahmedabad tomorrow. The election results showed that the BJP has got 50 per cent of the vote share, in an election where voting was above 60 per cent. The Congress has got some 40 per cent of the votes, with the rest going to others. Mr Modi made it clear that his party had won “despite the negative propaganda, language and tricks’’ used by his opponents.

The election results showed that the BJP base has not eroded anywhere, except in central Gujarat, where in 2002 the Godhra verdict turned it into a BJP territory. Saurashtra, which was expected to be the losing ground for the BJP owing to the rebel factor, actually returned more BJP candidates this time around.

The same story was repeated in south and north Gujarat, where the BJP maintained its winning spree.

Though the BJP rebels belonged to Saurashtra, like Mr Keshubhai Patel, and south Gujarat, like Mr Dhirubhai Gajera, this had no effect on the Modi juggernaut. The rebel factor just did not count, and Mr Gajera and Mr Becharji Bahadani, both BJP rebels, contesting on Congress tickets, lost. The Congress, too, was hoping to make a killing in Saurashtra, but could make little headway. The mood at the BJP headquarters was upbeat. Mr Modi told party supporters to attend tomorrow’s rally.
Once it became apparent that Mr Modi was marching to victory, an SMS purportedly sent from the chief minister`s office was received by reporters. The SMS read: Dil Se Modiji, Phir Se (Modi once again). It further said: “I did not become CM on 7.10.2001. I have always been CM, I am CM today and shall be CM for ever. CM means Common Man, for me’’.

Nandigram mayhem and the Kronstadt mutiny

Kaushik Guha
The Statesman, 18 May

History repeats itself. However much the saying is refuted, it still holds good for identifying certain distinctive co-relational traits in two separate sets of incidents posited in different space and time.

A remarkable parallel is observed in the way the Bolsheviks crushed the mutiny of sea-men in Kronstadt and the suppression of peasants at Nandigram on 14 March. That is not tantamount to saying one is a mirror image of the other. In fact, Kronstadt in Russia of 1921 and Nandigram of 2007 are not bound by any form of homogeneous affinity. Nevertheless, taking together the similarities and dissimilarities in the incident pattern, the representative attitude of the Left in power comes to the fore ~ the same tale of intolerance and obstinacy on the part of the apparatchiks to open a dialogue with the deprived populace of the lower rung.

The naval base of Kronstadt, situated outside the erstwhile capital Petrograd, was a hot bed of revolutionary politics in the years preceding 1917. Majority of the sailors working there sided with the Bolsheviks. Moved by their courage and zeal, Lev Trotsky described Kronstadt as the “Pride of the Revolution”. Yet within four years the faith of the sailors in Bolshevism dwindled. The sacrifice demanded by the Bolsheviks for a rosy future during the years of the worst food crisis following the seizure of power did not appeal to them. Years of violence had taken a heavy toll, leaving the sailors bitter and exhausted.

In “War Communism,” a policy adopted during the Civil War, the men of Kronstadt sensed a return to Czarist autocracy. Friends changed into foes. They revolted in unison against the power ~ elite of Kremlin.

Eighty-six years separate the gory events at Nandigram from the happenings in Kronstadt with the month being the same ~ March. On 17 March 1921, the Red Army formed by Trotsky bombarded the fortress of the mutineers. Unlike the disorganised peasants of Nandigram on 14 March 2007, the sailors were ready for an onslaught from their former comrades. They repelled the attack unleashed by the Soviet troops a number of times with the Bay of Finland acting as their Maginot Line. However, in the end they found themselves outnumbered and succumbed to the might of the state. No mercy was shown towards the mutineers. Not a survivor remained to narrate the tale of danse macabre.

The peasants of Nandigram also incurred the wrath of the ruling Left for their unwillingness to hand over the cultivable land necessary for the development of the state. They too like the sailors of Kronstadt refused to buy the idea of progress projected by the party in power. In this context, it will be pertinent to state that attrition over land between the peasants and the party has remained a common feature in different phases of development in socialist countries.

The ryots of Nandigram have seen the men in Singur buckle under pressure. So they did everything in their modest capacity to thwart extraneous assault. Roads were damaged and pits were dug up, and they too like the men in Kronstadt attempted to carve out a liberated zone free from the control of government machinery. It was subversion all right, but one should read in it a backlash of terrorism perpetuated by the impatient advocates of industrialisation. The nonchalant manner in which the Haldia Development Authority issued a circular for acquiring cultivable land to build SEZ no doubt left the tillers of the soil panic stricken. Extremism as it is often seen comes from a desperate bid for survival.

While the sailors of Kronstadt disillusioned with Bolshevik authoritarianism harboured a design of usurpation, the cultivators of Nandigram probably wanted to put pressure on the government for saving their last means of sustenance ~ the land under the plough. So although the protesters in Nandigram knew for certain that a showdown with government forces is inevitable, never did they apprehend such a terrible reprisal. Perhaps they nurtured hope ~ even after the chief minister’s pledge to remove all impediments on the road to development, the party that still swears by the peasants and proletariats would stand by them and sooner or later would come up with a deal in their favour. Many of them like the men in Kronstadt were once activists and supporters of the ruling Left and had a role in installing the party in power albeit by different means.

Tragedies in both cases could have been averted by creating a favourable climate to generate consensus on the issue of development and order. Coercion only exposes the vulnerability of a scheme or an idea. Therefore, it is necessary for the men at the top to act with patience and restraint for neutralising accumulated grievance.

Particularly for those whose ascent to power has to a large extent been levered up by forces down below. Yet everything was done rather hastily. While Lenin and Trotsky were keen to see the emergence of a new socialist order free from the evils of capitalism, the chief minister of West Bengal appeared to be overenthusiastic about industrialising the state. A strong opposition party in both cases could have stemmed the tide.

In the Soviet Union of 1921 when the revolt in Kronstadt broke out, the opposition had already been smashed into smithereens by the Bolsheviks. Cheka, the official intelligence agency, was propelled to hunt down non-Bolshevik activists of different shades. By wiping out the opposition through persecution, the Bolsheviks thus could assuredly trample on any form of dissent without any unsavoury repercussion. Atrocities in Kronstadt would have come to light much earlier had there been a party to challenge the hegemony of the Bolsheviks.

Even within a democratic set-up with a single party ruling a state for 30 years, a socialist monolith of gigantic proportion has evolved in course of time. In West Bengal, the opposition exists only in name, to say the least. Credit should go to former chief minister Jyoti Basu for rendering harmless the remonstrations and cutting the adversaries to size.

The Left Front has all along upheld the dominance of the CPI-M with the partners coexisting as mere appendages. The accepted gospel within the Front seems to be ~ all are equal but some are more equal than others. What gives the apparatchiks a sense of security is that protest against misrule is yet to assume a holistic character so necessary to disrupt the balance of power. This concentration of power allows the Big Brother to ride roughshod over others.

One of the tactics employed to deal with antagonism in any form by the Leftists in power both in West Bengal and former Soviet Union is to implicate the trouble-makers with ideas or activities feared by the general people.

To malign the mutineers the Bolshevik leaders of 1921 alleged that the whole thing was a handiwork of a few White Guards to dislodge the party from power. Even Lenin, who incidentally spoke very little on the uprising, commented on the existence of a nexus between the White Guards and the mutineers. Isac Deutscher in his biography of Trotsky published as early as 1954 rebuffed the White Guard story which was later corroborated by Soviet historian Dimitri Volkaganov. Now it is generally accepted that dissident Bolsheviks led by a few anarchists took up arms against the government.

The ruling elite in West Bengal resorted to the same kind of malicious propaganda to isolate the agitators of Nandigram from the concerned and thinking citizens of the state. The movement in the initial stage was accused of having a pro-Muslim bias holding the Jamaat Ulema-e-Hind responsible for raking up the trouble. Perhaps the intention was to nip the protest in the bud ~ an idea that eventually backfired bringing to light the sinister design of the ruling clique.

Little difference exists in the form of justification rendered by the Bolshevik leaders and their followers ruling West Bengal after the massacre. The tone of remorse evident in Trotsky’s speech delivered at the victory parade on 3 April 1921 appears to be quite unpretentious: “We waited long for our blinded sailor-comrades to see with their own eyes where the mutiny led.” However, one wonders whether his comrades at the top shared the same feelings towards the mutineers. For Trotsky it was without doubt a painful compulsion ~ many among the mutineers were once his close associates and a rupture was the last thing he wanted. For others this was an action to guard their own power can be exemplified by the bloody purges of the thirties.

According to the Leftist rulers of West Bengal, breaking the resistance in Nandigram was necessary to impose the rule of law. There is a similarity of temper between Trotsky’s atonement of guilt and Mr Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee’s hand-raising helplessness to legitimise the crackdown. Both of them said that their patience withered away with time and they were forced to take extreme steps to check further deterioration of the situation.

Lenin remarked that the mutiny in Kronstadt came like a sudden flash of lightning that illumined the reality around. He must have realised that the whole country was in ferment and however spurious the Kronstadt mutiny might be made to appear, it was in fact a timely signal for the things to happen in future.

So pragmatic it was for the Bolsheviks to abandon the dogmatism of “War Communism” for a policy liberal enough to meet the need of the hour. Even before the mutiny was crushed, a package of reforms known a “New Economic Policy” was announced on 15 March 1921 from the Kremlin.

The Bolsheviks, it seems, were never hesitant to adjust their doctrinal position whenever they smelt any threat to their power. It was in the thirties that this power struggle assumed supreme which ultimately ended in the bloody victory of Stalin over others. The spectre of Kronstadt continued to haunt the Bolsheviks in different forms.

The Left Front in West Bengal, if its version is to be believed, is making an all-out endeavour to push industrialisation as a policy for meeting the challenges of a new world order. The think-tank of the party, like the Bolsheviks of the twenties, is desperately trying to wriggle out of the straight-jacket and in the process turning against those who mattered in the past. Certainly a discernible change is in the offing. The bloody resistance at Nandigram comes as a pointer to the fact that there would be a number of clashes in future between the forces of globalisation and those opposing them. Like the mutiny in the Soviet Union 86 years before, Nandigram too is carrying the dark flies of guilt.

(The author taught Russian language at Jadavpur University. He is at present working as an Assistant-Coordinator in Sahitya Akademi, Kolkata)

Nandigram is nothing in comparison with Kronstad - Lenin to Budhya a right sequel of Communism

Feel pity for Karl Marx

Hindol Bhattacharjee
24 December

I have read some of the books regarding the state terrorism practiced by Communists. I am confused and after thinking a lot, to me Marxism has been misused by the power hunger of dictators about whom still i am respectful. But now i am a bit confused.

You know well that after the revolution in Russia, Lenin tried to make a parliamentary election and it was termed as Constituent assembly. But after getting only 150 seats out of 700, he broke the parliament and declared the dictatorship. Some people tried to assassinate him but in stead of that he formed the Red army whose activity was only to kill and demolish all the against parties of Lenin and Communist party. Between 1918 and 1921, in the civil war, the red army killed a lot. Besides there was scarcity of food and in this way when there was people's uprising against the mundane communism, 7.5 Million people were killed. Lenin termed this as " war Communism'. Lenin, to fight against all the opponent, created Cheka whose activity was centralized in political murders of those opponents and torture over the farmers. During that period, all the trade unions and strikes were banned. Lenin has declared that to gain communism, Russa should be civilized. But what was the form of that Civilization? Due to war communism, and people's uprising, in Kronstad, thousands of people were killed. The sailors who directly participated in the revolution( 1905, October, February, 1917) had become opponent of Lenin. They created another coupd'eta against lenin and the sustaining communist terrorism. At the same time the people's uprising movements, especially by farmers and workers were taking place.

The sailors of Kronstad made a resolution after 26 February of 1921 and their demands were most democratic. They needed election for a new Soviet by hidden ballot, they needed equal distribution of ration, and the freedom of speech along with the freedom of participating in Trade Union and farmers Union. But Lenin termed it as a conspiracy done by the white force against the red army. ( Like our Binoy Kongar declared the mass movement was a conspiracy by the Maoists at nandigram). Kujmin declared that war would be the solution ( like our Biman Bose gave public statements against the farmers who are fighting against the land acquisition for SEZ), and Trotsky sent 60000 soldiers of red army to kronstad to kill the organised farmers ( like lakhman Seth at nandigram)

It is a truth that in this battle the number of deaths of sailors was 527. Injured was 4127. More than 500 leaders of the uprising mass movement were sent to Siberia.

Kronstad is well known for a victory of Lenin over the mass movement and it is still now a landmark of Communist movement. From this perspective, how can we say Budhyadeb Bhattacharjee, Biman Bose, Binoy Kongar are not communists. They are not marxists as lenin was not a marxist, too.

If we go through the recent economic condition of China after globalization, it is really shivering. During 1995-2002, 15% of the number of labours was decreased. The decrease is from 980 lakh to 830 lakh. They are getting smaller revenue, working more than 12 hours per day and working 7 days per week. Due to the rapid conversion of agricultural land to industrial sector, the farmers of Guangshi area is now gradually worsen. Due to the land acquisition, 26.7 square kilometre land has become desert. It is 29.7% of the total agricultural land. After globalisation, the per apita income of 90% of the population of China is now 1.4% of the total income of the country whereas 10% middle class people are now getting more than 45% income if GNI.

The left front has decided to accept the globalise economy and in the process of manifestation of SEZ. According to history, Budhya, prabhat, prakash karat are obviously communists and nandigram is nothing if it is compared with kronstad. And now they are going to become a part of processing the globalise economy in bengal and helping Indian central government to help multinationals.

Is it Communism? Or, perhaps yes it is!

Oris-saga

The Statesman, 10 December

Patkar faces stiff opposition at Posco site
JAGATSINGHPUR, Dec. 11: Medha Patkar’s visit to the trouble torn Posco affected areas here went on expected lines with the pro-project activists confronting her with placards of 'go back' and the equally determined social activist making her way into the villages saying she will not bow to the designs of the state and ‘hired goons’.

In fact pro-project activists relented to allow Medha Patkar into the village only after the local police intervened at Badagabpur. There were heated exchanges but no violence.

The pro-Posco activists had however issued a ‘fatwa’( dictate) of sorts to villagers of Nuagaon warning that those who speak to Medha Patkar will be penalized with a fine of Rs 1000.

Though she moved from door to door at Nuagaon, panicked villagers did not come forward to speak to her. Some of them even shut their doors as she approached them. The sequence of such events started right at Badagabpur village while the team of social activists, sarvodaya leaders were proceeding towards Nuagaon.

Some people obstructed the activists and raised a protest with placards reading 'Medha go back, we want Posco'. Medha Patkar and her team tried to reason it out with them saying they were keen on peaceful and negotiated settlement to all issues but protestors did not relent till the police stepped in. A heated argument took place between the pro-Posco activists and members of Nav Nirman Samiti, Rastriya Yuva Sangathan who were accompanying Medha Patkar.

Later as the visiting team entered Nuagaon, some of the pro-Posco activists sat on dharna at the Ramchandi temple with a banner they said: “We will solve our problem and outsiders are not allowed to interfere in it”.

Villagers, on their part, were scared of talking to Medha Patkar due to the threat of fine and the repression that was likely to follow. RYS convener Mr Biswjeet Ray informed that one person who committed to provide accommodation for Medha to stay overnight at the village suddenly refused due to threat by hired goons. All these goons have been hired from neighbouring Paradip and Kujang areas, he pointed out before alleging that they were working in tandem with the local police and a senior bureaucrat.

Earlier, on arrival here, Medha Patkar led a rally from Gandhi chowk with all activists of NNS and RYS and held a meeting near the collectorate where NNS and RYS activists were on hunger strike since last week.

Addressing the gathering, she criticised chief minister Naveen Patnaik for selling minerals and water to industries at the cost of the farming community. She alleged that the state government was using hired goons as a cover to help repress democratic movements against the Posco project. The goons are a shield behind which the government is trying to push the project against the will of the people, she charged.

Innocent villagers are being subjected to terror and torture, she alleged referring to the violence on 29 November and the assault on satyagrahis as well as the photograph of Mahatma Gandhi.Such ‘Sultanraj’ here cannot continue for long, earlier kings used to resort to deploying soldiers and armed troops to crush rebellion, she observed.

Only a coward fears and acts in such a manner, she chided while noting how social workers were being viewed as ‘terrorists’.

How did the government approve 1,135 acres of land for the plant without consulting the villagers or holding a gram sabha, she questioned.

She vowed to fight against Posco steel project with the cooperation of villagers. No threat or pressure can suppress the voice of common people.

Others including founder of RYS Mr Kumar Prashant exhorted people to unite against the anti-people and anti-state policies of the government. State repression will not be tolerated, he said.

In another incident here pro-project activists of Trilochanpur protested and humiliated another team of professors of Delhi University who were on their way to Dhinkia village with relief materials.

A team of Delhi University led by Professor Mr S Bhattacharya KR Chaudhury, R.K.Das , leader of All India Youth Association Mr Prasant Rout and RK Sarangi from Intellectual Forum were prevented and humiliated.

Harassed at such protests the team returned without being able to reach Dhinkia.

Protest by varsity students

SAMBALPUR, Dec. 11: The students of Sambalpur University (SU) at Burla, 15 km from here, gheraoed the administrative building and paralysed its activities yesterday, demanding action against outsiders and the general secretary of the students’ union, who, they alleged were attacking the inmates of hostel often.

At the same time, outsiders in large numbers, are entering the campus and loitering near the ladies hostel to pass comments on the girls.

Though there is a police outpost nearby, these hooligans are not afraid of their misdeeds. The students further alleged that they have lodged complaints with the police earlier regarding the attacks on students by outsiders and also mentioned their names. But the police is yet to arrest the evildoers.

“If the accused persons are not arrested within 24 hours, we would start a hunger strike to bring in an atmosphere of peace in the campus,” one of the students said.

Neither the varsity authorities nor the general secretary, against whom the students have complained, were available for comments.

A platoon of police force has been deployed inside the campus to meet eventualities, the DIB sources said. Senior officers are keeping a watch on the situation.

Stir for jobs from Visa Steel

JAJPUR, Dec. 11: Hundreds of members of Vyas Unemployed Youth Organisation (VUYO), a forum formed for the interest of the local unemployed technical youths, staged an agitation in front of Visa Steel officers’ guesthouse today. It is located in Vyas Nagar, the gateway to the steel hub of India in Orissa’s Jajpur district.

The youths demanding jobs. The agitators, led by its president, Mr Bidyadhar Mohanty, locked up the guesthouse and prevented the exit and entry of Visa officials. Tension prevailed when security personnel of the steel company forcefully tried to drive the agitators out, and the latter in turn attacked them. After being informed, police reached at the spot and chased away the agitators.

Altogether 25 agitators were arrested and later released on bail. They were protesting against the engagement of non-Oriya people in the plant, located in the Kalinga Nagar by the Visa management.

The unemployed youths claimed that the steel plant has been utilising their area’s land and water and polluting the nearby villages around it. Hence the steel company should give priority to local candidates during appointments.

“After the Kalinga Nagar police firing in which at least 14 people were killed in police firing, while they were opposing land acquisition by Tata Steel plant on 2 January 2006, we were assured of being absorbed in the plants by the then Jajpur collector, Mr Arabinda Padhee.

Accordingly a directive was issued to the all the steel plants to engage local people first. But the Visa management is engaging non-oriya people,” said Mr Pradeep Samal, secretary of the VUYO.

“As per as advertisement, 39 technical youths had gone through the interview, both written and viva, on 13 May, 2006. We are educated and possess technical, engineering, and industrial training certificates, as advertised by the company about two years ago. But the authorities are yet to declare the result,” said Kailash Das, an engineering graduate.

He alleged that while aspirants are waiting for results, the company authorities, in the meantime, have appointed some non-Oriyas and outsiders. “During a bilateral agreement, it was decided that the steel company will engage local people in its plant on priority basis. But none is caring for the agreement and appointing the people as per as their wish,” he alleged.

Meanwhile, two FIRs have been lodged with the Jajpur Road police from both the groups. While the security officer of Visa Steel Mr AK Pati alleged that the agitators held them in confinement, Kailas Das, a member of the association alleged the company authorities threatened them of dire consequences for the agitation.

When contacted, AK Agarwal, vice-president (commerce) of Visa Steel however denied to comment on this matter.

Landmine blast injures three jawans

MALKANGIRI, Dec. 11: One Special Operation Group (SOG) constable KC Biswal was severely injured and two others Hrushikesh Patra and PK Sabat received minor injury while defusing a claymore mine near MPV 31 village under Kalimela police limits during the early hours today.

All the three injured jawans were immediately taken to the district head quarter hospital at Malkangiri.

Later they were air-lifted to Vishakapatnam hospital by two navy choppers in the afternoon. The condition of Biswal is stated to be critical.

Earlier on 7 December, Naxals had dug up State Highway-25 about three-feet deep during their continuing PLGA week from 2 to 8 December.

Combing operation by police had been intensified in this region and they had traced a claymore mine during the operation.

Sources said while defusing the claymore mine, another pressure mine, which was kept near it, blasted first and by the sound of the first blast, the clayore mine blasted in the hand of the Jawan KC Biswal.

13 December

Locals demand security step-up

JAGATSINGHPUR, Dec. 12: Panic stricken and anguished villagers of Dhinkia and Gobindpur narrated their sordid tales to social activist and environmentalist Medha Patkar on the second day of her two-day visit to the proposed Posco area. They also urged upon her to provide them security and liberty to live peacefully in their villages.

Despite yesterday’s agitation to prevent her entry into the project area, Ms Patkar visited Dhinkia, Gobindpur and other villages and interacted with the panic-stricken villagers.

Patkar opined that the villagers have lost their freedom and sovereignty due to threat of anti-socials and attack of Posco supporters. She expressed solidarity with those who over the last two years had led a non-violent peoples movement against the project.

She alleged that many villagers of Dhinikia have not yet received
BPL cards, rice under Antodaya and Anapurna schemes. “Several people including women told me that they had been warned against talking to her and that they would face a heavy fine if they met me,” she said.

The virtually ‘terrified’ villagers even requested her not to reveal their names lest the anti-Posco activist would impose fine of Rs 1,000 on them as per their fatwa.

The matter went to such an extent that Abhay Mallick, who had served meal to Patkar during her last visit to Nuagaon was found avoiding her. His wife met Medha with tearful eyes to apologise.

Women of Dhinkia narrated their plight and the scarcity of essential commodities ever since the police deployment had been made on 29 November.They dare not venture out of the village even to harvest their crops fearing arrest by police and attack by hired goons, noted Ms Patkar.

One Phularani Jena of Gobindpur village described how her son was unable to return home fearing repraisal by pro-Posco goons. Others wanted Ms Patkar to provide security to them.

Sixty-year-old Raghu Swain told her how he was being forced to part with his land and betel vines to the company. Earlier , Posco Pratirodha Sangram Samiti organized a meeting at Dhinikia village where Ms Medha, Jay Prakash Andolan movement leader Mr Rakesh Raffique , PPSS leader Mr Abhaya Shaoo , social activists from Mainpur Tikendra Bhai and Engineer Meher , Rastriya Yuba Sangthan founder Kumar Prashant, and others addressed the gathering and urged upon them to continue with their struggle.

Health camps a success

ROURKELA, Dec. 12: Four health camps organised by the Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP) at Belpara, Sindhekela, Bharsuja and Tusra of Bolangir district witnessed overwhelming participation by the people. The camps were held from 7 to 10 December.

The mobile team of RSP, comprising specialist doctors of IGH, visited these areas and provided medicines to the needy. The villagers were diagnosed and advised on health related issues. Free medicines were also distributed to the patients. More than 1,500 persons in Belpara, 2,000 in Sindhekela, 2,400 in Bharsuja and 2,300 in Tusra were treated and given free medicines. The district administration, the local health officials, the district Red Cross, NGOs and leaders provided local logistics. Mr RS Gopalan, collector Bolangir inaugurated the camp on 7 December and was present on all the four days. The effort was highly appreciated by the locals.

RSP would organise similar camps at Narkundi, Adri, Ghutrukhal and Mohulpatna in Kalahandi district from 13 to 16 December. Earlier, in the 1970s, RSP had organised relief camps in Kalahandi when severe drought hit the district.

Maoists surrender

SAMBALPUR, Dec. 12: Two young girls who had joined the Maoist cadres surrendered along with their arms here yesterday night. They had joined Maoist cadres in 2005 and were promised a lot. “But we found a totally different atmosphere in the camps,” said both the girls while talking to reporters after laying down their arms. “The only job of top cadre Maoists is to extort the rich and kill innocent people who dare to protest their illegal activities,” they added.

The girls who surrendered before police yesterday night were Miss Scholestica Minz alias Sujata (24) daughter of Lucas Minz of village Mendhiakani and Miss Rashmita Nayak alias Kabita of Jadagola village. Both the girls belong to Deogarh district, the SP of Sambalpur Mr Sanjaya Kumar said.

The girls had expressed their willingness to surrender through the OIC of Sadar police station Mr Manas Garnaik.

Accordingly arrangements were made to enable them to surrender smoothly, informed the SP. “The girls would be properly rehabilitated with adequate safety for then,” said the collector of Sambalpur, Mr LN Nayak who was also present in the said press conference.

It is worth mentioning that few days back another cadre girl Miss Dipti Nayak also surrendered before the police.

Change in mines Act demanded

BHUBANESWAR, Dec. 12: Newly-floated political party Samruddha Orissa today urged upon chief minister Mr Naveen Patnaik to demand the amendment of Section 9 of the contentious Mines and Minerals (Development & Regulation) Act 1957 in the impending meeting with Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh on 19 December. The state government should demand at least 50 per cent of profit from mineral as cess and total control over minerals excluding strategic minerals, it observed. If the demanded 50 per cent cess will be accorded to the state, Orissa will get a whooping of Rs 12,250 crore per annum.

Addressing a press conference here today, Samruddha Orissa president Dr Jatish Chandra Mohanty said that the total profit from the mines and minerals extracted from the state was approximately Rs 24, 500 crore during 2006-07. The production of iron ore, chromite, coal, bauxite and manganese were 62 MT, 3.7 MT, 81 MT, 4.6 MT and 0.7 MT respectively. But the state got a meager sum of Rs 900 crore as royalty, thanks to faulty mines policy and apathy of the state government, he said. While 46 per cent people are living below the poverty line, the big sum as demanded would do wonders in eradicating poverty by creating employment for at least 50 lakh youth of the state, he added.

Describing the present mines policy as a ‘grave injustice’ for the state, veteran leader and former parliamentarian Mr Trilochan said that Mr Naveen Patnaik had failed miserably in protecting the interest of the state during his tenure as Union minister and the imminent meeting with the prime minister will be an ‘acid test’ for him to prove his sincerity, and competence. While the state list in the seventh schedule of the Indian Constitution has maintained that the taxes and mineral rights should vest with the states and the centre is entrusted with the development and regulation only, the control exercised by the centre is unnecessary and to some extent, curtails the role of the states. Underscoring the need of a simplified mineral policy, he opined to form an independent expert committee to decide the cost and profit as per the global market mechanism.

Daily labourer dies

JAJPUR, Dec. 12: A daily labourer died on the spot after he fell from a 150 feet tower at Baladev Patana near Bhuban village under Dharmasala police station limits today.

The deceased has been identified as Jayadev Nayak (25) of Balipasi village of Anandapur in Keonjhar district.

According to the police sources, Jayadev, a daily labourer,used to work in Solax company.

The company was erecting a tower near Bhuban village for Vodaphone.
While Jayadev was working on the tower, he fell down, and died on the spot.

14 December

Patkar ready to mediate between villagers & CM on Posco

BHUBANESWAR, Dec. 13: Social activist Ms Medha Patkar dared chief minister Naveen Patnaik to a public debate on the Posco project and displacement related issues or for that matter any other project be it Vedanta, Kalinga Nagar or KBK plan.

She even offered to mediate between villagers and the CM, provided the latter agreed to a talk on the Posco issue. The gram sabha is the final word be it at the plant site villages or its proposed mining area at Khandadhar where tribals stay, she noted. Let him talk to the gram sabha and if required we are prepared to facilitate this, she remarked.

Evidently taking a dig at the CM for having said that Medha Patkar ought to realise that Orissa is a poor state and projects like these would bring in revenue and employment, Ms Patkar today said let him agree for a public debate.

Conscious of the fact that the CM shies away from public discussions, Ms Patkar recalled, earlier for 20 days people were on dharna demanding a discussion on Posco, she and Mr BD Sharma had even squatted before the CM’s residence demanding a discussion but it did not materialise.

More recently, I had written a letter to the CM for a dialogue and negotiation but there has been no response till date, she said.

With regard to her two-day visit to the project site villages, Ms Patkar said people were silenced and their ‘silence was pregnant' . She condemned the terror and state repression that had taken place in villages of the proposed Posco project site. Talking to reporters here she demanded immediate withdrawal of police force, stern action against hired goons who were patrolling the area and establishment of democratic rights of the people.

The police and hired elements followed me wherever I went over the last two days. Women who had fed me during my last visit welcomed me with folded hands but did not speak.

I was told that they were all threatened, yet the fact that hundreds moved with me silently, greeted me at Nuagaon and other villages, stood by the roadside spoke volumes, she observed.

Majority of the people do not want to give up their land, betel vines and right to fish but the state wants to impose the project on them. Gram sabha has the right over the resources not the Naveen Patnaik government, she charged.

Reacting to the charge that even the anti-Posco activists had harassed and tortured people in villages, she said about 50 people had met her saying they were neither pro and anti-project and yet they had been ostracised. These people should return home, she said adding that some of it was highly exaggerated as she found only 18 homes deserted but all belongings inside the house were intact. Prof. M Engineer of the teachers and scientists against mal-development association of West Bengal, who had accompanied Ms Patkar, said that proposed Posco site was fast slipping into a Nandigram like situation. The move is to keep others out, isolate the area and impose the project, he alleged.

Relaxation of rules to clear Posco project alleged

BHUBANESWAR, Dec. 13: The Wildlife Society of Orissa (WSO) has alleged that regulatory agencies have relaxed rules to clear Posco steel plant’s captive port project.

The World Bank is lobbying for the project as the US pension funds and corporate investors have a huge stake in Posco, Mr Biswajit Mohanty, secretary of WSO, said.
The speed at which clearances have been accorded and preferential treatment given to the company, has raised everyone's eyebrows even within the concerned departments, Mr Mohanty noted.

Indian companies face numerous hurdles and delays in obtaining routine clearances for even small projects. Recommendations made by the officials of the ministry of environment and forests, Bhubaneswar, to carry out detailed impact studies have been ignored. Similarly, the recommendation letter dated 26 June, 2007, of the Orissa forest department is full of misleading data. It conceals the fact that the beaches at Jatadhar Muhan is a significant nesting ground for Olive Ridley turtles and has justified the location of the project at Paradeep.

The Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) studies are inadequate. Instead of carrying out a study of the offshore sea currents for a period of one year, the study has been made for only 34 days.

Dredging of 28 million cubic metres of sand for setting up the Jatadhar Muhan port would be disastrous and would affect the food chain of the Olive Ridley turtles.

According to official comments on the EIA of the captive port at Jatadharmuhan creek, sent by the chief conservator of forests, of the Eastern India Regional Office, (MOEF), Bhubaneswar, to the Government of India in August 2006, it has been pointed out that the company has carried out a rapid EIA for three months only which is insufficient.

The inadequacy of the rapid EIA study was objected to by a senior professor, who is a member of the State Coastal Zone Management Authority (SCZMA).
He said that the data is inadequate and a time of three months is not enough to study the life and habitats of many species.

MOEF has strongly recommended that impact studies on Olive Ridley sea turtles should be carried out. who live near the Orissa coast for at least six months.

The forest advisory committee has granted forest clearance, Mr Mohanty said despite the absence of impact studies.

The wildlife wing of the government has also claimed that the coastal waters is the migratory pathway for the turtles.

The project is likely to make a negative impact on the marine ecosystem.
Ironically, instead of demanding studies to ascertain the impact on the turtles and other marine organisms on which little data is available, the wildlife wing has demanded a five per cent of the project cost of Rs 2,550 crore for research.

Due to the hostile attitude of the villagers, officials cannot visit the site to verify the data.

An aerial inspection was done which is a departure from the process under the Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980, for forest diversion.

Left-wing extremism has dropped: Kumawat

BHUBANESWAR, Dec 13: Except for three or four incidents of Chhatisgarh the violence level in Left wing extremist affected states has dropped considerably claimed Mr ML Kumawat, special secretary ( internal security) here today.

Mr Kumawat was talking to reporters after a meeting of the task force on Left wing extremism here. Top cops of nine Left wing extremist affected states, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Maharashtra and UP discussed various aspects of intelligence sharing and effective security measures.

The violence level and casualty has come down drastically he said while exuding confidence of ending the menace soon.

The focus was on synergy and improved sharing of intelligence amongst states as well as between the state and the centre. The synergy on both development activity and security aspects were discussed and each state put forth its views.

He lauded the efforts of Orissa in this direction and said they had done an excellent job.

Prisoners call off fast

KORAPUT, Dec. 13: Hunger strike by the prisoners of Koraput district jail was called off late in the evening today with the intervention of the district administration.

All the 729 prisoners of the jail were on a hunger strike demanding transfer of the jail superintendent along with some other issues. The prisoners have alleged that the quality of rice used in the jail was sub standard and they were served only radish and potato in their meals while the district jail was producing many other vegetables, Niranjan Das, jailer of the district jail said. Speaking to Balakrushna Sahu, the district collector of Koraput and UR Rao, the SP of Koraput who had met the prisoners inside the jail, the prisoners had urged them to ensure better quality of food, to provide a telephone booth inside the jail premises for the prisoners and to give cash instead of biscuits. Apart from demanding basic amenities inside the jail they also demanded for granting parole to all the prisoners by giving relaxation in the existing norms and conditions. While the district collector had agreed to see that qualitative food with better rice and fresh vegetables was given in the prison, he however expressed his inability on solving other issues and hence assured the intimate their demands would be passed on to the higher authorities.

The situation turned tense as the prisoners looking at the failure of talks with the administration in the morning attempted to keep the staff members including the officials of the jail in their captivity. With the fear of getting assaulted by the prisoners no jail official dared to enter the jail premises the entire day, especially after the prisoners made an attempt to catch Mr Das, the jailer, while he was going on his regular rounds.

Moreover all the 729 prisoners attempted to break the main gate of the jail in the morning, Mr Das added. As a result a portion of the main gate and at some other places were damaged. Additional police force were deployed in the jail to avoid any untoward incident. While there were many instances where individual prisoners had gone on strike for meeting their personal demands, this was for the first time that such a unified strike was called by the prisoners in the district jail of Koraput.

Police outpost a bone of contention

KEONJHAR, Dec. 13: The house from where the Ghatagaon police circle inspector office is running is going to be a bone of contention between the Ghatagaon Samabaya Samiti (GSS) and the Ghatagaon police.

The Ghatagaon police has not yet given a single pie as rent to the GSS for the house that the former got from the latter through a resolution.

Sources say on December 21, 2002 as per a resolution, GSS made available its three houses to the Ghatagaon police for the office of the circle inspector. The then circle inspector Sri Maheswara Sethy took the charge of the house through a bi-party resolution.

Four years have passed, but the GSS which is under Dhenkikote has not got even a rupee as rent. As such 15 members of Dhenkikote passed a resolution as per which two months time would be given to the Ghatagaon police to deposit the four years rent amounting of Rs 48,000 or vacate the house. In this regard the Ghatagaon circle inspector Mr BB Patel said that as some documents were not with the department, so it failed to give the monthly rent. But the pending rent would be paid soon.

Villagers ‘solve’ murder case

SAMBALPUR, Dec. 13: What trained police could not do, common men have done that. They successfully cracked a murder case and exposed the culprits.

The incident took place in Singhpali village under Aithapali police station where a youth Saroj Oram was absconding for two days after the death of his father.

His widow mother and villagers lodged a FIR suspecting that hewas murdered due to property dispute. But police took it lightly. Even after one month of the incident the matter remained a mystery.

The villagers handed over a youth including two others to Ainthapali police on the same night and gheraoed the police station.

Then only police swung into action and on the information from the accused youth police searched a big pond from where the decomposed body of Saroj was recovered. Villagers, earlier, informed police that the opponents of Saroj might have thrown him into the pond after murdering him which was true.

Police arrested Margasira Oram, Mahadev Oram, Bhagaban Oram and Biranchi Dila of Singhpali village and forwarded them to court. They admitted killing Saroj, the police said.

It needs a mention that Ainthapali has emerged as a crime prone area in the district. Senior police department officials worried that they should do something to save the image of the department.

However, Ainthapali police maintained that they had not neglected the case in any way, and it was only that they were overburdened and busy with a lot of work.

Non-Proliferation - Missiles The New Currency Of Power

Gurmeet Kanwal
The Statesman, 13/14 December

The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, the most important building block of the international non-proliferation regime, has 190 members and only three India, Israel and Pakistan have opted to stay out. The three pillars of the NPT are non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and enabling technologies by any of the signatories to the treaty; the right to peaceful energy and technology for all and nuclear disarmament by the nuclear weapons states. Of these, disarmament has always been the most neglected.

Contrary to expectations that the NPT would provide a “universal standard of non-proliferation”, it has only been partially successful. Since the NPT closed the gates in 1970, several states have crossed the nuclear threshold. While India and Pakistan openly announced themselves to be states with nuclear weapons in May 1998, Israel is widely suspected to be a closet nuclear power. Since 1991, several “wannabe” SNW have come tumbling out: Iraq in 1991, North Korea in 1992, Libya in 2003 and Iran in 2003. The revelations in 2003 of the proliferation Wal-Mart run by the AQ Khan network from Pakistan were the last straw that virtually broke the back of the international non-proliferation regime.

Little concern

During the 1970s and the 1980s, emphasis in nuclear non-proliferation was normally laid on arresting horizontal proliferation by denying technology to countries outside the “London Club”. There was little concern about vertical proliferation within the five recognised Nuclear Weapons States. Serious thought was never given to Article VI of the NPT by the NWS and the world failed to move towards eventual nuclear disarmament. After the end of the Cold War, the focus shifted to protecting the fissile material stockpile of the former Soviet states from falling into the wrong hands and also on containing possible leakage of nuclear weapons technology.

Around this time, the three major non-signatories of the NPT acquired nuclear weapons. Israel did so through the acquiescence of the Western world, India by converting its indigenous civilian programme to weapons capability and Pakistan through clandestine arrangements with other countries that shared common interests.

Today, there are nine nuclear powers in the world, including North Korea. Iran, also an original signatory of the NPT, is a cusp state that may threaten to go nuclear and even withdraw from the NPT because of the continued perception of the extraordinary deterrence value of nuclear weapons. There has been renewed emphasis on preventing proliferation of WMDs since September 11, 2001.

In recent years, unsettling trends have been gaining momentum in the field of nuclear non-proliferation. North Korea’s withdrawal from NPT and its subsequent nuclear test without serious consequences is likely to encourage other states to also take the plunge ~ or threaten to do so. Iran’s violation of IAEA safeguards has led to further tensions in the West Asian region that is already plagued by a war in Iraq and low intensity conflict in Palestine and Lebanon. The flourishing international black market in nuclear and missile items from Russia and other post-Soviet states might put nuclear weapons-grade material and even nuclear weapons up for sale. The spread of biological and chemical weapons has increased the chances of WMD terrorism and the danger that it will inflict deep wounds on democratic societies. Despite grand policy pronouncements, China is yet to become a consistently reliable partner in the global battle against proliferation.

The West is widely blamed for its “double-standard” approach to non-proliferation that exempts pro-Western regimes and states from criticism for their nuclear programmes and concentrates exclusively on those Third World regimes that oppose the West ideologically, politically and/or militarily. Many Western moves, such as unilateral sanctions against alleged proliferators, are seen as being intended to eliminate competition in profitable areas of international trade, e.g. nuclear energy production, rather than as steps to fight proliferation. France, UK and the US have declared their intention to use nuclear weapons against “rogue states” even if the attack is non-nuclear. Such perceptions result in widespread doubts about the desirability of following the non-proliferation policies and initiatives promoted by the West.

The international community has other serious concerns as well. The missile development programmes of Iran, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan pose major challenges as missiles are the new currency of power. The US is continuing to design new nuclear warheads as part of its Reliable Replacement Warhead programme. It is a hybrid design that is based on well-tested elements of older designs combined with new safety and security measures. However, computer simulation may not be adequate and actual testing may be needed to prove the efficacy of the new warhead. Abrogation of the ABM Treaty by the US is seen as a new obstacle for non-proliferation efforts.

The deployment of a national missile defence system by the US is likely to lead to the modernisation of nuclear forces by China. China is likely to build over 100 new mobile ICBMs with MIRV-ed warheads. These will threaten not only the USA, but also Russia, India, and Japan. Consequent to this development, Japan and Taiwan may choose to exercise their nuclear option. However, it must be noted that there have been some positive developments and success stories as well. Iraq destroyed its nuclear weapons infrastructure post-1991 Gulf War. NPT extension and CTBT signature in 1995-96 reinforced non-proliferation norms. Russia has accepted the MTCR and Wassenaar Arrangement export controls. China has finally embraced nuclear export control laws and policies consistent with the NPT and will hopefully implement them diligently. The Pakistan Army-A Q Khan nuclear Wal-Mart has been exposed though other rogue scientists in Pakistan are still to be exposed and booked. The post-test nuclear programme freeze in North Korea is a positive sign. Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Libya, Romania, and South Africa have renounced nuclear arms and accepted strict international controls. Post-Soviet Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine were denuclearised in 1996 and joined the NPT as non-nuclear-weapon states.
Notable case

The most notable case is that of Libya. The international community, led by the US, made Libyan efforts to acquire a nuclear weapons capability difficult and frustrating. Increasingly painful costs were imposed on Libya for its covert nuclear weapons ambitions. Credible prospects of tangible and meaningful benefits were held out if Gaddafi turned away from pursuing his goal to acquire nuclear weapons. Threats of dire retribution were also held out. Gaddafi was eventually persuaded of the ultimate futility of acquiring nuclear weapons. The lesson that clearly emerged was that even nuclear weapon “wannabes” can be persuaded to reverse course and abandon their nuclear weapons ambitions.

In stark contrast with Iran and North Korea, India has agreed to take steps that will bring it into the non-proliferation mainstream, including: placing its civilian nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards and monitoring; signing and implementing an Additional Protocol, which allows more extensive inspections by the IAEA; ensuring that its nuclear materials and technologies are secured and prevented from diversion, including its recent passage of a law to create a robust national export control system; refraining from transfers of enrichment and reprocessing technologies to states that do not already possess them and supporting efforts to limit their spread; working to conclude a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty; continuing its moratorium on nuclear testing; and, adhering to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) guidelines.

Even though India opted to stay out of the NPT, its policies have been consistent with the key provisions of the treaty contained in Articles I, II and VI that apply to the Nuclear Weapon State. It is now well recognised that India has neither transferred nuclear weapons to any other state nor assisted any to acquire these. India’s exports of nuclear materials have always been under safeguards and India has been a leader in urging the NWS to pursue negotiations to achieve the goal of total nuclear disarmament.

Compared with this impeccable track record, some of them have been active collaborators in or silent spectators to continuing clandestine and illegal proliferation, including export of nuclear weapon components and technologies. The NWS have followed a discriminatory and inconsistent approach to enforcing the treaty, with selective focus on the recipients of clandestine proliferation but not enough attention on the sources of supply. The USA and Russia have consistently refused to cut their nuclear stockpiles substantively even after the end of the Cold War. Such an attitude feeds and strengthens the belief that nuclear weapons are a currency of power.

Revived interest

There is a revival of interest in nuclear energy, not just due to rising oil prices but also due to serious environmental concerns leading to rising demand for clean energy and also due to the inevitability of the shrinking fossil fuel resources. Today’s challenge is to simultaneously ensure that while horizontal as well as vertical proliferation of nuclear warhead technology is prevented, trade and commerce in nuclear technology are allowed to flourish unhindered.

Understandably, the non-proliferation ayatollahs the world over have been up in arms against the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Energy Cooperation Agreement. Policy and opinion-makers in India readily accept that the Indo-US nuclear deal represents a major concession that has been made by the US and fully understand that it is an issue of concern for the international non-proliferation community. However, they like to emphasise that this privilege has been accorded in recognition of India’s responsible and unblemished conduct in limiting horizontal proliferation and that sufficient safeguards have been built in to take care of the non-proliferation concerns that might arise as fallout of the deal.

In this era of strategic uncertainty, it is important to see the Indo-US nuclear deal in the larger geo-strategic framework and US policy and opinion makers are clearly taking their bearings from the emerging world order. Analysts in the US are divided in their perceptions of the deal. Dr Stephen Cohen is of the view that the agreement enhances American strategic interests, and “if properly implemented, it will advance, not retard, American non-proliferation objectives.” The initiative will help India move to an energy strategy that makes it less dependent on imported oil and that will positively address American global environmental concerns. Former Defence Secretary William Perry and a former top Pentagon aide, Ashton Carter, back the agreement. However, Robert Gallucci, a former top non-proliferation official at the State Department who negotiated a 1994 nuclear agreement with North Korea, urged the US Congress to reject the deal because it “trashes” the non-proliferation regime.

There are other detractors of this deal as well. Noam Chomsky believes that “the agreement, if implemented, will be a serious blow to the NPT, and the network of treaties and international regimes in which it is embedded, some of which have already been dismantled by the Bush administration.”

The fact that India has agreed to place two-thirds of its nuclear reactors under international safeguards has gone down well with most US lawmakers. Congressman Jim Kolbe said in his testimony to the House International Relations Committee: “If Congress enacts this legislation, India will have tougher nuclear scrutiny than is given to China, Russia and the major nuclear powers. None of these countries’ reactors are under any inspection regime. India would place at least two-thirds of its programme under the direct eye of the International Atomic Energy Agency.” It is this fact that finally convinced many initially skeptical Senators and Congressmen that the deal would have positive non-proliferation fallout and they supported it whole heartedly.

Dr Ashley Tellis has gone one step further: “Bringing India into the global non-proliferation regime through a lasting international agreement that defines clearly enforceable benefits and obligations not only strengthens American efforts to stem proliferation but also enhances US national security… It recognises that it is unreasonable to ask India to continue to bear the burdens of contributing to ensuring the viability of the global non-proliferation regime in perpetuity, while it suffers stiff and encompassing sanctions from that same regime.” Michael A Levi and Charles D Ferguson recommend that the US should focus on the right objectives: “Finding a workable path forward requires that Congress reserve the bulk of its political capital for a handful of top-tier objectives. It should focus on preventing Indian nuclear testing and fundamental changes in Indian nuclear strategy, rather than on blocking growth in the number of Indian nuclear weapons...”

These experts are also of the view that the Indo-US nuclear deal had no significant impact on the decisions of Iran and North Korea. In any case, the latter has now agreed to dismantle its nuclear weapons programme in return for energy and other aid. Iran continues to blow hot and cold but also appears to be gradually veering around to becoming more accommodating. While it will definitely react violently to a military attack on its enrichment facilities, needs.

Hence, it would be reasonable to conclude that the Indo-US nuclear deal does not in any noteworthy manner undermine the nuclear non-proliferation regime even as it makes a positive contribution to it by bringing the bulk of India’s civilian nuclear power reactors under the ambit of IAEA safeguards and inspections.

International non-proliferation efforts would be considerably strengthened if all nuclear weapon states were to cut their arsenals, lower the alert status of their strategic weapons and boost cooperation in nuclear technologies for economic development, especially in the energy sector. Cuts in the nuclear arsenals of the NWS would be meaningful only if these were irreversible and verifiable. The strategies that must be followed to further international non-proliferation efforts should frustrate emerging nuclear weapons wannabes, contain “loose nukes” and build walls between nuclear power and nuclear weapons. The “closed fuel cycle” gives errant countries an inherent capacity to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons.

Early consensus

The P-5 should build an international regime alongside the NPT to promote civilian nuclear power but discourage or prohibit closed nuclear fuel cycles. Such a regime could provide a key building block in a comprehensive nuclear non-proliferation strategy, promote the development of peaceful nuclear energy and institute automatic consequences for non-compliance with IAEA safeguards. There is an urgent need to continue efforts to tighten export control regimes and understand and accommodate rather than confront threshold states. Iran is one nation that needs sensitive handling. Nothing will be gained by questioning Iran’s nuclear energy needs and military action against it will definitely be counter-productive.

Early consensus on concluding the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty will be an important step forward. For counter-proliferation, international support is needed for the PSI and CSI initiatives launched by the US. Wider consultation is always better than “go it alone” strategies. Above all else, there is need to accelerate efforts towards total universal nuclear disarmament. 27,000 nuclear warheads are 27,000 too many. It has to be understood by the P-5 that total nuclear disarmament is a zero sum game.

The writer is Additional Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi.