THE FAILED STATE

It’s army rule behind a civilian facade in Bangladesh. And everybody, save the politician, is said to be happy.

SANKAR SEN
The Statesman, 22 April

Bangladesh has again come under a military regime though nobody openly calls it a coup. In January this year, the army stepped in and asked President Izazuddin Ahmed, to declare a state of emergency. Basic rights were suspended. The President stepped down as the head of the caretaker government that had been formed to oversee the elections. He was replaced by Fakhruddin Ahmed, a former World Bank official, who now heads a technocratic administration. The army’s intervention had became inevitable following frequent clashes between the supporters of the ruling Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the main opposition party Awami League. The violence had plunged the country into virtual chaos. A dysfunctional Parliament was dissolved. The national security chief, head of the power ministry, and the Attorney-General were ousted. A large number of local gangsters were arrested.

The caretaker government has launched a fullfledged anti-corruption drive. It arrested a large number of senior members of the two ruling parties which had looted and misruled Bangladesh over a decade. Bangladesh, as per Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index, is regarded as one of the most corrupt countries of the world. In its clean-up drive the military-backed government has already jailed 30 top level criminals, mainly politicians and businessmen. Another 100 are wanted. A law to deal with people, charged with corruption, within 60 days is on the anvil. The government has formed teams of military and civilian investigators for the task and feels confident that they will be able to collect the evidence to get the culprits convicted.

To prove that its anti-corruption drive will spare none, the authorities arrested Tarique Rahman, son of Begum Khaleda Zia. on 9 March. The house of Begum Hasina Wazed, the former Prime Minister and leader of the Awami League, was raided but no arrests were made. The detainees were mostly from the groups that prospered when either Begum Zia or Sheikh Hasina was ruling.

The common people of Bangladesh, who are poor but politically alert, are rejoicing at the discomfiture of the politicians. “Everybody but the politicians”, as the Economist puts it (20-26 January) is apparently happy.

Zia’s son and presumed successor, Tarique, had in recent years become the symbol of corruption, violence and kleptocratic misrule. He was referred to as “Mr ten per cent”, because of his cut in any deal effected by the government. Indeed, the people had become sick of corruption and the spiraling violence.

The caretaker government has vouched to de-politicise the enfeebled institutions. It has appointed a new election commission and has also weeded out Khaleda’s acolytes who were in charge of the government’s anti-corruption wing. It has announced plans to make the state banks accountable and recover the money from the politicians and their cronies who had taken massive loans and were reluctant to pay back. Initially the caretaker government also announced a clamp on the media, but good sense prevailed and it decided to relax it. The administration has also taken a number of other sensible steps. It is trying to deal with the looming power crisis and overhaul the malfunctioning seaport at Chittagong. For dealing with the chronic power shortage it has approved a long pending deal with an Indian firm to build a 240 MW power station.

It seems that the army’s objective is to force the two ladies to quit by starting corruption cases against them. The strategy has been nicknamed as “Musharraf solution”, after the success of Musharraf, in forcing two redoubtable civilian leaders Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif to leave Pakistan. Latest reports suggest that Khaleda has agreed to go into exile in Saudi Arabia. Sheikh Hasina has left Bangladesh, and is unlikely to return soon.

The army is proceeding carefully and is not going to allow elections to be held within a year. The National Democratic Institute, a US based monitoring group, discovered in December that the electoral roll in Bangladesh has 13 million bogus names. Even the BNP concedes that there are problems with the electoral rolls.

Revision of the voters’ list will take several months and the administration says it wants to issue fraud-proof identity cards. This will take more than a year. It is clear that the army, though not apparent on the face of it, would like to extend its rule. It will not be easy to send it to the barracks.

The administration has announced the setting up of a National Security Council which will include the chiefs of three services and also civilians led by the head of the interim government, Fakhruddin Ahmed. The new council gives the army a formal mechanism for effectively controlling the administration that it has installed in January 2007. The army top brass feels that it is not possible to govern the country from behind the curtain any longer. It fears a backlash by the BNP loyalists.

With the decline of the influence of the BNP there is now a political void. Md Yunus, who recently won the Nobel Peace Prize, for his pioneering work on micro-credit, is trying to build up a new political force. But this will need the army’s backing which Yunus wants to avoid. Commenting on Yunus’ plan, Hasina has remarked ~ tongue firmly in cheek ~ that she saw “no difference between usurers and corrupt people”.

For the time being the people in Bangladesh have appreciated the emergency arrangements. Western governments and donors are also happy; they feel that an emergency for a year or so will reinvigorate Bangladesh’s crippled institutions.

However, this is a dangerous state of affairs. Army rule is an anachronism in the 21st century. Further, the BNP has many loyal supporters within the army, judiciary and other institutions. They are sulking at the moment; they do not want the present regime to succeed. The BNP still has its men in key positions, in addition to a fair amount of money and popular support across the country.

Though Bangladesh is a Muslim country with liberal and secular traditions, the fundamentalist Islamic groups and parties in recent years, and particularly during Begum Zia’s rule, have gained disproportionate influence. The Jamat-e-Islami and its violent student wing, Chatra Shibir, which controls the campuses of some of the important universities, have acquired both money and muscle power.

For a country like Bangladesh prolonged army rule will do more harm than good. The initial relief will gradually wear off. To remain in power and to marginalise the main political parties the army may have to join hands with the fundamentalist groups as it has done in Pakistan. Jihadis adore a vacuum. Disillusionment with the main political parties will strengthen their hands. Bangladesh is far from being a hardline Islamic state but its so-called secular leaders have done their best to give secularism a bad name.

Authoritarian rule is unlikely to appeal for long, despite the disenchantment of the voters with the two mainstream political parties. The socio-economic problems of Bangladesh are overwhelming. By 2050, its population s projected to reach 250 million. Only democratic rule and institutions can help the country tackle its burgeoning problems.

India has a big stake in the goings-on. It wants a stable and friendly neighbour. Bangladesh has harboured many insurgent groups from the North-east and sheltered many fugitives from India. It is learnt that the present regime will try tio mend fences with India.

At a recently concluded conference between the senior officers of the BSF and BDR, the latter stressed the need for improved relations with India. But the acid test is the willingness of Bangladesh to firmly curb the activities of the terrorist outfits operating against India. Present indications are encouraging.

A Senior Fellow, Institute of Social Sciences, the author had served as Director, National Human Rights Commission, and the National Police Academy.