The best chance ever for SAARC

Amit Baruah
The Hindu, 31 March

When South Asia's leaders meet in New Delhi on April 3, they must show the vision to abandon the beaten path. Their peoples have too much at stake.

SOUTH ASIAN leaders can no longer blame the regional environment for not being able to move their South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) forward at the 14th summit to be held in New Delhi next week. Nearly 22 years after it was formed, South Asian officials are now candid in admitting that SAARC has been stuck in the confabulation stage and it needs to move towards implementing concrete projects.
Given that SAARC has nothing really to show in terms of real achievements, this admission, which has taken its time coming, was inevitable. It is only a recognition of the ground reality in this part of the world. In its 22 years of existence, SAARC, after New Delhi this time, would have managed to hold just 14 summits despite the agreement to have annual meetings. Bilateral problems — essentially between India and Pakistan — have meant the regional grouping is still trying to find its feet. A reading of the 13 summit declarations so far shows them to be rich in intent, but low on follow-up action. Many of them are repetitive.
Let's look at today's South Asia. For long, SAARC has been hostage to negative trends in the India-Pakistan relationship. Since April 2003, this has been successfully reversed and, as a senior Pakistani leader put it recently, ties between the two countries have never been better. Gone are the days when India used to worry about the "noise" Pakistan may make on Kashmir at the SAARC summit. Often, pre-empting Pakistan was the chief occupation of Indian officials before such a regional meeting.
In fact, this been built into the rules of SAARC itself: no bilateral issues can be raised in the regional grouping. However, with Pakistan stuck with internal affairs, there's been no suggestion that anything embarrassing might be raised at the upcoming SAARC summit. The bilateral scene between India and Pakistan was very different when India last hosted SAARC summits — in New Delhi (1995) and Bangalore (1986). The two countries were at loggerheads at the time. Now, there's definitely a more relaxed approach to the relationship.
Other positive developments in the region, too, are not to be missed. There's a business-friendly government in power in Bangladesh, one that has promised to improve relations with India even as it safeguards its own interests. Bangladesh's Chief Adviser Fakhruddin Ahmed will be representing his country at the summit. His remarks and meetings will be watched closely, especially what the Chief Adviser might have to say in his first bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Nepal, on its part, is plodding on towards a real democracy. King Gyanendra has been shown his place by the people of Nepal even as the Koirala Government and the Maoists are engaged in working out the modalities for power-sharing and genuine elections.
The "enlightened" monarchy in Bhutan has taken some steps towards more representative government even as Opposition forces in the Maldives continue to challenge the Gayoom presidency.
There's little doubt that the resumption of violence in Sri Lanka is not good news for the region, but the fact remains that Colombo has managed to make its economy grow despite the murderous attacks of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). After a prolonged honeymoon in India-Sri Lanka relations, there seem to be new tensions between New Delhi and Colombo on the Rajapaksa Government's apparent belief that the LTTE can be defeated militarily. The sidelines of the SAARC summit will provide an opportunity for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Mahinda Rajapaksa to talk about their differences, which are not yet in the public domain. However, the resentment in Colombo and the concern in New Delhi are more than evident.

New member

Troubled Afghanistan will formally join SAARC on April 3 as the eighth member. Not only is Afghanistan in internal turmoil, its relations with Pakistan are tense and the two nations have been trading charges on the forces responsible for fomenting terrorism in the region. Yet, rule-by-Afghans, peace, stability, and moderation remain the only viable options in this troubled nation, which has shown considerable interest in joining the ranks of South Asian nations. SAARC states should ensure that Kabul is not disappointed.
Notwithstanding some negatives, the fact remains that India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh remain central to moving SAARC forward. This does not, in any way, take away from the contribution of the other nations in working towards greater regional integration. Bilateral issues may not be taken up by SAARC, but since its formation in 1985 these have always crippled the grouping. Happily, that is no longer the case. Today, the leaderships of the principal nations in SAARC do not have any excuse from not giving the regional grouping a major push forward towards creating more jobs, increasing trade, and facilitating the movement of people and goods.
The fact is that national leaderships, collectively and individually, have failed to raise the standards of living of their peoples. South Asia remains one of the most under-developed parts of the world, where glaring poverty continues to haunt millions of people. Connectivity must become a real concept, not a high-sounding phrase that resonates in seminars and conferences across the region. For, physical connectivity has the potential of increasing trade between the eight SAARC neighbours. Not that SAARC nations have not visited this idea before.
At the 13th summit in Dhaka in November 2005, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sounded truly pained at the fact that SAARC had achieved so little. And, connectivity, was clearly on his mind when he said, "... let us agree, at this summit, that all South Asian countries would provide to each other, reciprocally, transit facilities to third countries, not only connecting one another, but also connecting to the larger Asian neighbourhood, in the Gulf, Central Asia and in the South-East Asia. India, which borders each of the members of the South Asia, is willing to do so." Deafening silence from other SAARC leaders greeted this suggestion. Privately, many South Asian diplomats said Dr. Singh had made an excellent, forward-looking speech. However, there was no public response at least to the points made by the Indian Prime Minister.
While the time has come for India, as the largest country and economy in South Asia, to stop insisting on "reciprocity," other SAARC members need to see the value in Indian suggestions and stop looking at New Delhi's vested interests behind every proposal. For long, India has been seen as the big brother, out to dominate the region. Some Indian actions, like placing an embargo on the supply of fuel to landlocked Nepal in the 1980s, drew legitimate criticism from the rest of South Asia.
However, the current strategic scene in South Asia is vastly different. Indian economic success is now being seen as an opportunity for others in the region. Some "big brother" tendencies remain in New Delhi, but, overall, there have been some changes in the Indian bureaucratic mindset. More enlightened members of the bureaucracy now believe that India must share its economic opportunities with others in the immediate neighbourhood. At the same time, other SAARC members, too, must turn away from the India-as-a-favourite-whipping-boy theme in the internal politics of their countries. It is a theme that has the potential of winning elections, but has little to show for itself in the new strategic environment.
When South Asia's leaders meet in Vigyan Bhavan in New Delhi on April 3, they must show the vision to abandon the beaten path. SAARC, which is led by officials, must now be taken over by the leaders themselves. Their peoples have too much at stake. All eyes will be on the leaders. Will they be able to move SAARC and South Asia forward or will the 14th summit just be like the other 13 — words, promises, statements, and declarations? And, for the first time, there will be five others watching too — China, the United States, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union — in their new capacity as "observers."