Bangladesh: Crisis to crisis

Chronic instability has dogged Bangladesh ever since its creation. At the root of this malady is an acute crisis of national identity. A Pakistan era legacy, it embodies a running conflict between secular propensity and fundamentalist Islamic ethos in the Bengali Muslim psyche. Right from the time when the proponents of political Islam sided with the marauding Pakistan army in 1971, this clash of ideology between the pro-liberation and anti-liberation forces has overshadowed the country’s socio-political dynamics, frequently igniting turmoil and violence.

Independence from Pakistan marked the victory of secularism over Islamic theocracy, but throughout its 36-year-long history Bangladesh has had no respite from the fierce ideological cleavage. The post-Mujib military rulers ~ Ziaur Rehman and Hussein Mohammed Ershad ~ systematically played the Islamic card at home and abroad with an eye on consolidating their respective hold on power.

Ban lifted

Zia de-secularised the Constitution and legitimised the fundamentalist and communal parties (1977) by lifting the ban on their functioning. Ershad declared Islam as the state religion (1988). Both promoted close ties with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Muslim world, which stoked the growth of radical Islam. A generous flow of petro-dollars from West Asia ever since has helped create a strong network of mosques and madrasas as the fulcrum of militant Islam. While the Jamaat-e-Islami mobilised Muslims on the hardline Wahbbi platform, the centre-left mainstream remained quiescent about it, lest countervailing response from them cut into their electoral support base in the majority Muslim community.

A secret marriage of convenience between the Jamaat and the rightist BNP during the first regime of Begum Khaleda Zia (1991-96) radicalised the anti-liberation forces. Ascension of the Jamaat to the state power structure as a partner of the BNP-led four-party coalition government (2001-2006) has promoted the menace of Islamist terror that threatens the stability of Bangladesh and the rest of the sub-continent.

Since the ouster of Ershad, as the sequel to an all-party mass movement three general elections (1991, 1996 and 2001) have been held in Bangladesh. The last two were conducted by a neutral interim government prescribed by an amendment of the Constitution (1996) to ensure a free and fair poll. The BNP won the1991 election and the BNP-led four-party alliance the 2001 poll whereas the Awami League won the 1996 election.

The January 2007 has run into rough weather, mainly due to the partisan role of the country’s President, Iazuddin Ahmed, and the irreconcilable face-off between the Awami League-led 14-party alliance and the BNP-led four-party combine.

The anti-incumbency factor had played a crucial role in deciding the outcomes of the 1996 and 2001 elections. Given the disastrous performance of the BNP-Jamaat government marked by unprecedented rise in unemployment and runaway inflation, unbridled corruption, extra-judicial killings by the security forces and the no-holds-barred growth of the Islamist jihad, the 14-party alliance was expected to win in a reasonably free and fair election.

To avoid the defeat of the BNP-led combine, President Iazuddin Ahmed has been resorting to patently partisan actions, making a mockery of the Constitution and the neutrality on the interim government. On remission of office by the outgoing BNP-Jamaat government, the President formed a ten-member Advisory Council, appointing himself the chief adviser of the interim government. Though under the Constitution he is a titular head of the state, currently he is also the home, defence and foreign minister as well as commander-in-chief of the armed forces. This extraordinary concentration of power in one hand is a serious violation of the Constitution and doesn’t bode well for the country’s stability in the run-up to the elections and after.

As some of the advisers appointed by the President were closely connected with the BNP, they were unacceptable to the Awami League and its allies. Iazuddin’s partisan handling of the demand for their removal fuelled the mass movement on the issue spearheaded by the Awami League-led alliance. His lack of transparency and conspiratorial way of functioning, shutting out the advisers from policy-making, vitiated the working atmosphere of the interim government, forcing four advisers to resign.

Prolonged, unseemly wrangling between the President and the 14-party alliance over the latter’s demand for the removal of undesirable persons positioned as election commissioners exacerbated the distrust of Iazuddin Ahmed. Seen as busy implementing the BNP-Jamaat blueprint to rig the poll, the chief adviser is keen to deploy the army in the conduct of the election. Military intervention in any form in the election process is anathema to all parties except the BNP and its allies. The previous Khaleda Zia government was reported to have drafted declarations for the deployment of the army and promulgation of a state of emergency before laying down office.

A move by the President to call in the army was foiled by the agitating fourteen-party alliance. Later, half way through the three-month tenure of the interim government, the President deployed the army purportedly in aid of the civilian administration, but in reality it was a move to thwart the ongoing mass movement against his ill-motivated acts of omission and commission.

After changing the election schedule several times it has been fixed for 22 January, but the electoral roll prepared by the previous BNP-Jamaat regime was found to be a recipe for vote fraud. Names of hundreds of thousands of genuine voters, notably from the minority Hindu community, considered supporters of the Awami League, have been deleted from the voter list and an equally large number of fake voters has been enlisted.

One thing that will boost the Awami League’s chances is that the BNP has split and lost much of its steam. A new political force, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by Badruddozza Chowdhury, a former President, and Oli Ahmed, a senior BNP leader, is campaigning on an anti-corruption platform. The new party will significantly reduce the BNP-Jamaat votes. The joining of the grand alliance by the LDP and the Jatiya Party of Ershad will further consolidate the anti-BNP-Jamaat vote.

Houses burnt

Begum Zia’s son, Tarique Rahman is the strong man of the BNP. At least four BNP defectors to the LDP have seen their houses burned down in a campaign of intimidation by Tariqe’s followers.

The system of a caretaker government was introduced to safeguard democracy from the winner-takes-all instincts of the two big parties, but now that very system has become part of the threat. Most foreign concerns about Bangladesh in recent years have been focused on the spread of violent Islamic extremism. The recent events have inspired the fear of a breakdown of the fragile political order, leading to a messy deadlock or military intervention, and a field-day for the Islamic terrorist outfits. Given the volatile situation, two predictions can be made with reasonable certainty: (1) Even if the elections are held on time, the losers ~ i.e. one of the two mainstream groupings ~ will reject the results and violent political unrest shall continue; (2) The election campaign and polling will witness extreme violence and, going by the experience of the 2001 election, recurrence of uncontrolled Hindu cleansing is a foregone conclusion.

Many panic-stricken members of the minority community have crossed over to India in the past few weeks. The influx will have a particularly disturbing impact on Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and West Bengal. From all indications New Delhi and the state governments have no contingency plan to cope with the tide of refugees.

The author is former Additional Secretary, Research and Analysis Wing (RAW)