After Saddam, it will be oil

K.S. Dakshina Murthy
The Hindu, January 10

Now that the U.S. establishment has succeeded in removing Saddam, it is bound to turn its attention to securing unshakeable control over supplies of oil from Iraq.

PUSH ASIDE the smog, mist, fog or whatever is clouding the real motive behind United States' invasion of Iraq and two things stand out clearly: Washington's perception of Saddam Hussein as a threat and the U.S. dependence on Iraqi oil.

The U.S. has successfully manoeuvred the elimination of deposed President Saddam Hussein. What remains to be done is ensure that oil supplies to the U.S. remain stable and secure. In other words, total oil security.

After Iraq's attack on Kuwait and the subsequent Gulf War in 1991, the U.S. attempted in myriad ways to topple Saddam. Though the U.S. along with an international coalition at that time managed to push Iraq out of Kuwait, it stopped short of counter-invading Baghdad. George Bush (Sr.) as the U.S. President at that time faced severe criticism for leaving unfinished his task, which was to remove Saddam from power.

However, the U.S. with the help of the United Nations Security Council ensured that economic sanctions were imposed on Iraq, resulting in severe hardship to common Iraqis. One of the unstated aims was to build internal pressure and create adverse conditions that would favour replacement of the Saddam Hussein regime, preferably by another ruler friendly to the U.S. But Saddam's internal control was ironclad. Despite hostility from the Shias and the Kurds, he remained firmly ensconced in office and continued to defy the U.S. government.

U.S. intelligence agencies propped up dissidents, ensured funds for disgruntled sections within Iraq, and actively encouraged the regime's opponents in exile. The dissidents used generous media space and basked in the international limelight, "exposing" the so-called misdeeds of the Saddam Hussein government including the proliferation of chemical weapons and a nuclear weapons arsenal.

The U.S. leadership, after waiting for a decade, finally went on the offensive and put to good use the bogey of "weapons of mass destruction." Leveraging the momentum generated by the September 11, 2001, attacks, the U.S. invaded Iraq 16 months later, dethroning Saddam.

But the task was unfinished as long as Saddam was alive. Despite being out of power, he was perceived to have the strength, charisma, and the backing to become the focus point of resistance against the U.S. invasion. Sections in the U.S. establishment even feared he could garner anti-U.S. sentiments in Iraq and stage a comeback. To prevent this and to achieve the long-term aim of eliminating Saddam from the scene, a trial was set up, charges framed against him, and a court backed by the U.S. sentenced Saddam to death. Despite protestations worldwide, which were not too many, the deposed President was hanged. The U.S. had achieved its long-term goal of eliminating Saddam.

In late-2003, when Saddam Hussein was captured on the run from U.S. forces, many were wonderstruck at the deposed President giving himself up without resistance. A few weeks earlier, his sons Uday and Qusay had died resisting capture. Their father's surrender was met with a measure of disappointment in the Arab world as it did not tally with his image as a fighter. Though there was a measure of speculation about his eventual fate in U.S. custody, it was fairly clear Saddam would not be spared by his captors, and that he was living on borrowed time.

Now that the U.S. establishment has succeeded in removing Saddam forever from the physical world, it is bound to turn its attention to the next important item on its agenda — to secure unshakeable control over supplies of oil from Iraq.

Already, the U.S.-engineered constitution of Iraq has elements in it that if implemented will ensure this. Within Iraq, it so happens that oil supplies are in abundance and extracted in areas controlled by the Shias and the Kurds. The so-called Sunni triangle has no major oilfields in comparison.
The new Iraqi constitution in the initial draft contained within it sections that allowed for the oil trade to be controlled by a federated arrangement. In other words, regions ruled by the Shias, the Kurds, and the Sunnis were accorded the authority to decide how and where oil supplies in their territories could be routed. And the finances from the sale of the oil would go directly to the regions with a share of it to the centre. This was opposed by the Sunnis and by a section of nationalists hostile to the U.S. on the grounds that it would dilute the hold of the federal government and pave the way for the break up of the country.

The U.S. and its loyalists in the Iraqi government tactically gave in as it was important at that time to get the constitution passed and a semblance of an independent government installed. In the constitution that came into being in October 2005, the contentious sections in the original draft were amended. But, importantly, not removed. For instance, Article 110 other than stating that oil revenue is to be distributed among the country's regions does not go into specifics. If the U.S. continues to remain in control, and all indications are that it will, it is possible for the constitution to be reworked to Washington's advantage at any time it sees fit in the near future.

For the U.S., this decentralised element is crucial as it will enable it to have a separate arrangement with the Shias and the Kurds for the supply of oil. The Sunnis may be antagonistic to the U.S., but they will not able to stop the supply of oil. If incessant resistance by the Sunni community endangers oil supplies to the U.S., a split of Iraq can be engineered into three independent nations, using the leeway provided by the constitution.

In recent months, there has been much speculation as to when Washington will decide to pull back its troops from Iraq. It is clear that a withdrawal hinges on how secure the arrangement of oil supplies is to the U.S. Now that Saddam Hussein is gone, in the coming weeks and months one can look to see events that will help consolidate oil security for the U.S. Even at the cost of Iraq's balkanisation.

The writer was formerly Editor with Al-Jazeera in Doha, Qatar.