An eclipse of U.S. in East Asia

P. S. Suryanarayana
The Hindu, 27 January

The "future direction" of the East Asia Summit, spelt out recently, does not mention the U.S. as a potential member.

EAST ASIAN countries, bracing for economic cooperation, are slowly relegating the United States to the margins of the region. The current eclipse of the U.S. in East Asia is far more evident behind the scenes than in the public domain.

Yet Japan and Australia, allies of the U.S., are privy to its latest marginalisation by the East Asia Summit (EAS). On January 24, Japanese Defence Minister Fumio Kyuma asserted that U.S. President George W. Bush's invasion of Iraq in 2003 was "wrong." And, Japan, which recently pulled out its troops sent to Iraq on a non-combat mission, could not be bound by his latest moves. So, up in the air now was the issue whether Tokyo should continue its ongoing air-logistics support for the U.S.-led forces in Iraq, Mr. Kyuma hinted.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has distanced himself from Mr. Kyuma's "personal" thoughts. But the emerging reality is that the U.S. is being ignored and criticised in some respects despite its continuing "forward deployment" of military forces in East Asia, widely expected to become the centre of gravity in world politics sooner than later.

Now, the "future direction of the EAS," spelt out after its summit in Cebu (Philippines) in mid-January, does not mention the U.S. as a potential member of this one-year-old forum The open-ended omission of the U.S. is heightened by the fact that some key EAS members — India, Australia, and New Zealand — are not from geographical East Asia at all. China, Japan, and South Korea are the major EAS players, while the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) is the "driving force."

The irony is that Asean, by and large a U.S.-friendly institution in the 40 years since its inception, is making no apologies for Washington's conspicuous exclusion from the EAS.

Asean secretary-general Ong Keng Yong has told The Hindu that the EAS, a "leaders-led" forum, wants to focus its immediate attention on "functional cooperation" over such issues as energy security and counter-terrorism. The "geographical and ideological issues" concerning any expansion of the EAS have, therefore, been set aside for now.
For Washington, too, an unproven EAS may not be better than the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation network, which includes the U.S. and spans a wider area than East Asia. The U.S. is also a member of the Asean Regional Forum that focusses on strategic issues.

China's rise

The U.S. lobby in East Asia, nonetheless, portrays China's growing influence across the region as the main cause of Washington's current fate at the hands of the EAS.

Authoritative Chinese sources and other East Asian diplomats say, in this context, that Beijing, while being committed to the EAS, values two other entities very much. These are the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Asean Plus Three forum, re-named APT in Cebu. The U.S. does not figure in these two as well.

While China and Japan are the prime movers within the APT, Beijing and Moscow are the lead players in the SCO. The SCO has recently taken on board India and Pakistan as observers. The message, according to sources, is that China and Russia want the SCO to play a creative role in re-shaping the pan-Asian political order over time. And, after the recent "turning point" in China-Japan engagement, Beijing has also signalled its willingness to coexist with Tokyo within the APT.

Two factors may help define these trends. First, a Chinese analyst Qin Yongchun emphasised several years ago that partnership, in Beijing's lexicon, "is another name for friendly relationship" and not for any anti-hegemony alliance. And, partnership is the key to these fora that China is in.

Secondly, China has now reaffirmed that its space programmes are for peaceful purposes. This follows the latest alarm in the West over Beijing's suspected destruction of one of its own ageing satellites. Western critics see this as proof of China's growing prowess for a possible space-age war with the U.S.

For India, the EAS is not the only platform for re-shaping Asia. India is already in a forum of dialogue with China and Russia. And, Tokyo is exploring the possibility of inviting India to interact with the existing Trilateral Strategic Dialogue that involves the U.S., Australia, and Japan itself.