International / Lebanon Under siege

Al-Ahram Weekly

I

It was a week of rumour and counter-rumour. Last Tuesday's (21 November) assassination of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel propelled the post-war struggle for political ascendancy to a new level, intensifying the polarisation between the so-called 14 March anti-Syrian bloc, vocally backed by the US, and the 8 March opposition of Iranian and Syrian-backed Hizbullah and allied Christian leader Michel Aoun. Each group is named after respective anti- and pro-Syrian demonstrations last year.

Gemayel's assassination had two immediate domestic results: to revive accusations against Damascus from the ruling parliamentary majority, and to scupper, for now, an opposition plan to "take to the streets". Thursday was widely expected to be the day the Hizbullah-Aoun axis began their mass movement to call for more representation in government or early elections. The opposition accuses the government of mishandling, even collaborating in, Israel's aggressive bombing of Lebanon this summer, which killed around 1,200 people.

The assassination of the first Christian Maronite in the series of killings over the past two years aggravated a split in Lebanon's most politicised community, which dominated national leadership until the 1975-90 civil war shifted the balance towards Muslims.

Lebanese Forces supporter Tarik Chaar said he believed Hizbullah was behind the killing. "We want a federation in Lebanon, like Bashir," he said. Israeli-backed Phalange leader Bashir Gemayel -- Pierre's uncle -- was assassinated during the civil war in 1982.

Anti-Syrian leaders had urged supporters to turn out in numbers, with slogans such as "The court, now," a reference to the international tribunal into former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri's killing last year, broadened on the day of the wake to include Gemayel's assassination, and "no arms except legal arms," a reference to Hizbullah's weapons, a point of growing contention among Lebanese. Gemayel's poster also went up overnight with the message "We will not forget," joining billboards of other anti-Syrian figures assassinated last year.

Supporters of Saad Al-Hariri's Future Movement turned out in force, though crowd estimates varied. Although the number would be put at no higher than 150,000, official estimates pointed to more than 1,100,000 people in attendance, larger than last year's vast 14 March protest that piled pressure on Syria to withdraw its troops. Lebanon is a country of 4,000,000 people.
Defying speculation he would switch sides, Aoun announced that his Free Patriotic Movement remained ready for peaceful street protests. "We want to participate and we want balance. The government has lost its legitimacy and does not respect the constitution," he told reporters.

Aoun was referring to the government's decision to approve plans for the international tribunal in the absence of Shia representation after six pro-Syrian ministers resigned days before the cabinet met on the issue.

Hundreds of Lebanese Forces (a group led by Samir Geagea) and Aoun supporters clashed in Beirut's eastern Achrafieh district after the latter attempted to replace a large poster of their leader torn down last week. Bottles were thrown and insults hurled.

Fuelling reports of a Sunni-Shia split influenced by events in Iraq, fights broke out after the Gemayel funeral between Hizbullah and Amal supporters on one side and Future Movement and Phalangists on the other. Shia protesters blocked the airport road briefly after demonstrators insulted Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Al-Manar television channel broadcast footage of demonstrators at the Gemayel rally beating their chests in ridicule of the Shia Ashura ritual. Calm returned when Nasrallah called into Al-Manar station urging his supporters to go home.

Lebanese media reported that the army had arrested armed elements training in the Kesraouan region north of Beirut. Al-Akhbar quoted military sources saying they were Lebanese Forces members on shooting exercises and that a cache of Israeli and American-made machine guns and three Jeeps were seized. Pierre Daher, head of the LBC Christian television channel, said they were members of his bodyguard, and that maps pointing to Aoun's house found in their possession were printed on an invitation card.

Fears are high across all communities, but civil war is still seen as a long way off. "None of the parties has anything to gain by heading towards a civil war," Harb said. "The opposition would not gain power and the government would lose what power they have." Lebanese are split into two rival camps, rather than along clear sectarian lines, Harb said, which means incidents of violence were more likely than outright conflict. Hizbullah remains the only party in Lebanon with significant arms, although many possess light weaponry.

Many anti-Syrians see the opposition campaign and Gemayel's assassination as aimed at blocking the international court so Syrians avoid trial. Hizbullah issued a statement in support of the international court; the government welcomed the statement and said the six ministers, whose resignations Fouad Al-Siniora rejected, were welcome back to the fold to discuss the tribunal. As expected, the ministers stayed away and cabinet approved tribunal plans Saturday. They all wait for the by no means certain approval of pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, and then parliament.

"The problem with the international court is that it is both an internal and very much an external issue," said Lebanese American University historian Fawwaz Traboulsi. Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad was hoping that the international court would be cancelled. Hizbullah, Traboulsi says, has been playing for time. "14 March wants to make sure it goes ahead so that no real compromise happens between the US and Syria that makes the US lose interest in the court."

The US Baker-Hamilton Commission is expected next month to recommend dialogue with Iran and Syria to resolve America's Iraq quagmire.

Meanwhile, US President Bush again accused Iran and Syria of undermining the Lebanese government. "That government is being undermined, in my opinion, by extremist forces encouraged out of Syria and Iran," he said Tuesday. Syria's foreign minister levelled counter-accusations of interference. "We know who's interfering, the Americans and the French," he said on the sidelines of a EuroMed summit in Finland.

A senior US official told Reuters last week that Washington planned a "significant" rise in military aid to Lebanon to sustain a "drumbeat of solidarity" with Prime Minister Siniora's government, notwithstanding signing an agreement two weeks ago to up military aid to $10.5 million. Lebanon's army deployed across southern areas, formerly controlled by Hizbullah, after the war.

Beirut was on tenterhooks, with heavy army presence in the capital, quiet streets after dark and a counter-campaign by the opposition expected at any time. Whether it will take the form of civil disobedience or street demonstrations is not yet clear, but many believe it will lean towards the former to reduce the scope for confrontation and will be spread throughout the country to show opposition strength without mustering huge crowds.

"Rather than try to contain and calm the situation and wait and see what happens, both sides are pushing for a confrontation on the basis that their external patrons are fighting each other," Traboulsi said. "But they're not. The external patrons are confused."

II

The peaceful show of force that the Lebanese opposition staged, setting out on an open-ended sit-in in Sahet Riyad Al-Solh to bring down the Western-backed government of Fouad Al-Siniora, did not last long. The festive climate that engulfed the downtown area of Beirut during the first three days of the protest was overshadowed on the fourth day by the killing of Ahmed Mahmoud, first victim on the altar of political rivalry and sectarian tension that is gripping the nation in an manner unprecedented since the end of the civil war in 1990.

Twenty-year-old Mahmoud, a member of the Amal movement, was shot dead on his way home in Mahlet Qasqas Sunday evening. The incident heightened the worst fears of many; that political tension is likely to translate into militant confrontation. Whether or not this incident is a threshold drifting towards cycles of vengeance is yet unclear. The killing, however, added fuel to an already tense situation, deepening the sense of enmity, suspicion and fear among large sections of Lebanese society.

Almost one week after the sit-in, the picture is still grim. Political rivals remain deadlocked, with no sign of the situation abating. To add to an already complicated situation, Arab intervention through the so-called axis of moderate Arab regimes resolved nothing. The Arab League's secretary-general proposed the compromise of giving the opposition one third of the government in return for reaching consensus over electing a new president, but the plan was not well received within opposition circles.

Political rivals continue to score points against their opponents. A cruel war of words has broken out between Hizbullah and Tayar Al-Mustaqbal (the Future Movement). Al-Manar TV accused what it described as "militia" affiliated to Tayar Al-Mustaqbal of shooting at protesters on their way home, a charge the party vehemently denies. Al-Mustaqbal TV, on the other hand, accused Hizbullah of "sectarian mobilisation", quoting security officials as saying that three Syrians had been arrested in connection with the Mahmoud incident.

What confrontations in Mahlet Qasqas and Tariq Jdeeda have proven is that political tension that spills over into militant action might prove as difficult to control for the opposition as for the government. Embattled Lebanese premier Siniora put the onus on the opposition for resorting to the street without considering the consequences of such a move, demanding that they should return to the negotiating table. The opposition, on the other hand, accuse the government of unleashing its supporters to spread fear and terror among protesters, sabotaging the peaceful demonstration.

The timing of the opposition's move was the heart of political debate. The Western-backed 14 March camp say the timing was deliberate; that it was inspired by the Syrian regime's desire to abort the ratification of an international tribunal to investigate the killing of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. In response, Hizbullah and its political allies -- which include forces long-considered staunch opponents of Syria, like the Free Patriotic Movement of General Michel Aoun -- dismiss the charge, arguing that the opposition has legitimate political demands that should be addressed by the government.

Faced with the challenge of keeping the street under control while nonetheless vocal, Hizbullah's Secretary- General Hassan Nasrallah pledged in his latest speech that national unity was a red line. He pressed supporters not to respond to provocations from other parties. But this is wishful thinking while media coverage of the events only fuels fear and suspicion. This is particularly true for both Al-Manar TV and Al-Mustaqbal TV.

Undoubtedly, resorting to the street was a move that Hizbullah took cautiously, painstakingly planning for. In Hizbullah's view, the government has proven an utter failure on both domestic and region fronts. Its conduct during the Israeli war on Lebanon and its mishandling of the reconstruction process has exposed it as bankrupt. However, as much as the Siniora government is facing a serious challenge, Hizbullah, as the main moderator of the protest movement, is taxed also.

Indeed, this is perhaps the first time the movement decided to engage in the domestic arena with full force. Over 24 years of its existence, the party always steered clear of Lebanese politics, focusing instead on its strategic goal of resisting Israel. For Hizbullah, what is at stake is the party's ability to steer the protest movement clear of civil strife. This might explain why the party took upon itself responsibility for logistics. An estimated 20,000 members of Hizbullah were said to have been organising the crowd, making sure that the only flag carried was the Lebanese flag. Tens of tents were set up, with free rations of food, water and even newspapers distributed to protesters. The symbols, the banners, the songs and the discourse reflected a unity of purpose among different forces constituting the protest movement. Ideological and religious differences were put aside in favour of consensus over one main issue: a government of national unity now. To this end, organisers spared no effort in their attempt to vilify Siniora and his allies, mocking their political conduct and calling for their removal from power.

Street politics aside, the current political crisis appears to many as yet another instance in which Lebanon has become an object and victim of what one Lebanese sociologist described as "the inside-outside" dynamic. In other words, any attempt to understand the present political crisis in Lebanon independent of its regional and international context is doomed to failure. As one political observer deftly put it, the current political impasse is one that is sustained with outside assistance, thereby confirming the complexities of interlocking local, national, regional and international rivalries. Understanding the political rivalry between the US and Iran in the Middle East, for example, is critical to understanding Lebanon's current crisis.

"Lebanon continues to be the proxy battleground for other people's wars and the surrogate victim of unresolved regional and global tension," the observer told Al-Ahram Weekly.