Waiting for Nawaz

Nirupama Subramanian
The Hindu, 7 September

The PML (N) is readying to give a grand welcome to the former Pakistan Prime Minister but shadows of doubt linger.

House 20-H, street 10 in Sector F-8/3 has not been this busy in a long time. Until recently, the headquarters of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) was just another quiet house in a rich residential neighbourhood. Now it is humming with bee-like activity, preparing for the September 10 return of party leader Nawaz Sharif. Men are pasting posters of Mr. Sharif and his brother Shahbaz on the walls and distributing car stickers to anyone who shows the slightest interest. M ore men are arriving all the time in cars, motorcycles, and three-wheelers.

Inside, a meeting of the Muslim Students Federation (MSF), the party youth wing, is in progress. A minor functionary of the PML (N) is motivating the three dozen or so young men in the room to put their best foot forward. “Go to colleges, go to every neighbourhood, every street in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. We have five days left, and in these five days, we have to mobilise supporters of the MSF in such a way that they should be visible at every chowk, every road, every corner. Pull out your cousins, your friends from their homes on September 10, all them should be holding an MSF flag. This is not the time for apathy or laziness. We must squeeze out every drop of our struggle over the last eight years and show the results in the next five days,” he says.

As the day of the Sharif brothers’ return draws closer, the PML (N) is readying to give its leaders the grandest welcome Pakistan has ever seen. But even though the preparations continue apace, shadows of doubt continue to linger over Mr. Sharif’s return.

From the statements emanating from various quarters it is clear that the Musharraf regime does not want Mr Sharif to come back. At a time when the Chief Justice of Pakistan turned into a hero overnight for defying a military ruler, the PML (N) leader has gained more in popularity in the last two months than in the last eight years, simply for sticking to his position that he would fight for a return to democracy without making “deals” with the Musharraf regime.

Political observers are already predicting that Mr. Sharif will ride a wave of support on his return. Mr. Sharif has said he will lead a battle for the ouster of President Pervez Musharraf. His comeback could well upset the applecart of careful calculations being made between President Musharraf and PPP leader Benazir Bhutto.

Mixed messages from government

The Government, which said it accepted the August 23 Supreme Court order directing it to ensure the unhindered return of the Sharif brothers, has been sending out mixed messages thereafter, sometimes saying they are free to return, and at other times, threatening them with jail, or another period of exile in Saudi Arabia. It is no secret that the Musharraf regime has been pushing some buttons in the Saudi royal household to lean on Mr. Sharif and persuade him not to return.

As the organisers of the MSF were receiving a pep-talk in the PML (N) office, party bigwigs were grappling with the latest googly against Mr. Sharif. The official Saudi Press Agency had just put out a statement from an unnamed Saudi spokesman asking the former Prime Minister to use his “wisdom” and stay away from Pakistan.

After hours of tense speculation in political circles about how he would react to this missive from his benefactors, Mr. Sharif asserted in London that although he was obliged to the Saudi monarch, King Abdullah, for coming to his rescue by taking him away from Pakistan and a life term in prison in December 2000, a year after he was deposed by President Musharraf, nothing would stop his return home on Monday.

Back in Islamabad, his party declared the statement was not authentic as it was from an unnamed spokesman, and was a part of the government’s “disinformation campaign” to thwart Mr. Sharif’s return. PML (N) information secretary Ahsan Iqbal virtually asked the Saudis to keep their hands off the matter by declaring that the August 23 Supreme Court verdict enabling Mr. Sharif’s return was “supreme” and expressing the confidence that the Saudi government would not give him advice that went contrary to the instructions of the highest court of Pakistan.

Even if Mr. Sharif does not succumb to Saudi pressure, political observers say it is likely that the government may arrest him on arrival. The anti-corruption National Accountability Bureau recently reopened three cases against him. The NAB special court refused to issue an arrest warrant for him in deference to the Supreme Court order that the government should ensure his unhindered return to Pakistan, but said it would consider doing so after he landed in this country.

But party leaders warn that the consequences of arresting him would be far worse for the government than Mr. Sharif’s arrival itself. “If they do that, they will be regretting it the whole of their life, because they will then see the entire nation rising up to support Mr. Sharif,” said Iqbal Zafar Jhagra, PML (N) secretary-general.

Although the possibility of the government refusing the plane permission to land, or diverting it to some other airport does exist, it seems unlikely as such action could get it into trouble with the Supreme Court.

As of now, Mr. Sharif seems ready to face any eventuality, especially as not returning would be as good as committing political suicide. He and his brother have made bookings on four flights out of London. PIA was reportedly ruled out because it is a government-owned airline, and British Airways too, for off-loading the Bangladesh leader Sheikh Hasina when she was trying to go back to her country.

The party will finally choose the airline that can accommodate the maximum number of international journalists who have signed up to accompany Mr. Sharif on the journey, Mr. Jhagra said. The hope is that the presence of such a large media contingent would deter the government from taking steps to prevent Mr. Sharif’s return.

It is for the same reason that the PML (N) wants as large a turnout as possible at the airport. MSF organiser Raja Kalim “Tiger” promises at the meeting in the PML (N) office that he will bring thousands to the airport on September 10 to welcome Mr. Sharif. “We will organise such a reception that the government and even the whole world will know what sort of support he has in Pakistan,” he says.

Mr. Sharif intends to travel to Lahore by the Grand Trunk Road immediately after landing at Islamabad airport. Not long ago, the government allowed Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary to take the same route to Lahore, his motorcade growing with supporters as he went. Pakistan is watching to see if the government will allow Mr. Sharif to repeat the performance, perhaps with thousands of more supporters. Or is it going to be a repeat of the Chief Justice trying to enter Karachi?