A thaw in the winter of discord?

Atul Aneja
The Hindu, 6 March

There are signs that the tensions between Iran and the U.S. can be contained within manageable limits.

BEHIND THE tough talk on Iran and the heavy deployment of forces in the Persian Gulf, there is a glimmer of hope that a conflict between Tehran and the United States may be averted. Three factors have emerged recently to suggest that there is a chance that tensions between the two might be contained within manageable limits.

First, there has been a significant shift in Iran's internal dynamics with pragmatists having considerable diplomatic or political experience acquiring a high profile. Among them are Ali Akbar Velayati, and the former Iranian President, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Mr. Velayati, Iran's Foreign Minister for 17 years, is currently foreign policy adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader. Last month, after a trip to Russia to strengthen bilateral ties, Mr. Velayati acknowledged that the visit was of "strategic" significance: it was aimed at anchoring the relationship beyond the immediate exigencies of the nuclear issue.

Russia had responded positively to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's suggestion for establishing a "natural gas cartel" on the lines of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Russia has the world's largest gas deposits, followed by Iran and Qatar. All three have a stake in ensuring that gas prices are sustained at a reasonably high level.

Iran's moderate conservatives, including those with close ties with the Supreme Leader, have been effective in counterbalancing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's hardline rhetoric on the nuclear dispute with the West. On February 23, Mr. Ahmadinejad said Iran would not make an "iota" of concessions on its atomic programme. He later compared Tehran's nuclear programme to an unstoppable train without brakes and a reverse gear. Mr. Rafsanjani countered by saying Iran was "ready to give them the necessary guarantees," if Western powers returned to the negotiating table to discuss the nuclear issue without preconditions. The tussle between Mr. Ahmadinejad's camp and the moderate conservatives has intensified after the President's loyalists suffered recent electoral reverses. Mr. Ahmadinejad's supporters lost the municipal and local body elections held across the country. More importantly, the followers of Mesbah Yazdi, Mr. Ahmadinejad's spiritual mentor, fared poorly in the elections to the Assembly of Experts — a key institution of 86 clerics that works closely with the supreme leader.

Swiss proposal

Secondly, coinciding with the shifting political equations in Iran, the Europeans have begun to step in to prevent a military showdown between Iran and the U.S.. Aware that the Iranians are unlikely to accept cessation of uranium enrichment as a precondition for talks, Switzerland has come out with an innovative approach. It has apparently proposed that Iran not load Uranium Hexafluoride (UF6) gas that it produces in its nuclear facility in Isfahan in centrifuges or high speed spinning machines that can convert this gas into enriched uranium. By pursuing this approach, both sides can claim victory.

While the Iranians can argue that they have not succumbed to Western pressures for suspension, the Europeans and Americans would also have a good case to claim that, in practice, they have managed to freeze Tehran's nuclear enrichment in its tracks. Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani has acknowledged that the Swiss have been playing a constructive role to get the talks off ground. He has also, without elaborating, emphasised that Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi has a proposal, which "needed to be developed." Analysts point out that Europe's energy security concerns have influenced its disposition towards Iran.

In the long term, Europe would like Iran to emerge as a competitor to a rising Russia, to meet its heavy demands for natural gas. One way of achieving this would be to ensure that relations with Iran are normalised.
Thirdly, there are signs that officials from the "realist school," including U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, are making their presence felt in Washington. The Americans are supporting a conference on stabilising Iraq, where Iran and Syria have also been invited. The decision to hold this meeting, where American and Iranian officials are likely to interact, is in line with the recommendations of the Iraq Study Group (ISG), the bipartisan commission that has advocated the opening of a U.S. dialogue with Iran and Syria. Mr. Gates was a key member of the ISG.

Despite signals suggesting a thaw, tensions in the Gulf are high after the second U.S. aircraft carrier, John S. Stennis, entered these waters last month. Nevertheless, there is a perception in diplomatic circles in the region that the current level of tensions is likely to remain unchanged in the next few months. However, the status quo can be disturbed in case Iran crosses the "red line" by commissioning 3,000 centrifuges in its facility in Natanz, as some hardliners have been suggesting.

An "accidental" strike near the Strait of Hormuz or an intervention by Israel in the area can also worsen the situation significantly.