Pakistan's Middle East initiative

Nirupama Subramanian
The Hindu, 7 March

Under extreme pressure from all sides, President Pervez Musharraf plays for even higher stakes.

IT IS not every day that a leader besieged by multiple problems at home, and pressures and threats of all kinds from abroad suddenly decides that he is among the best suited and the most "credible," to tackle one of the most complex problems of the world. Yet, this is precisely what President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan has set out to do.

President Musharraf took Pakistan completely by surprise when in January he began talking about a "new Middle East initiative" with "like-minded countries" whose leaders enjoy "credibility" in the world. He suddenly flew to several Muslim capitals in the world, meeting Prime Ministers, Presidents, and kings. The initiative was born.

Last weekend, Pakistan played host to the Foreign Ministers of six Muslim countries — Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey — and a representative of the Organisation of Islamic Conference. They are supposed to have prepared the groundwork for another meeting within the OIC framework to be hosted by Saudi Arabia at Makkah, perhaps later this month. Over two days, this "seven plus one" conference as it was called deliberated upon various crises in the West Asian region, from Palestine to Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon.

At the end, the conference made a joint declaration calling for the immediate establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the occupied Syrian and Lebanese territories. It expressed concern at the escalation of tensions over the Iranian nuclear issue and called for a solution through diplomacy rather than force. The Ministers called for the unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Iraq to be preserved and respected. The Makkah meeting is to prepare a road map for the resolution of the Palestinian question. Foreign Minister Khursheed Kasuri was quoted as saying that the European Union, China, and Russia will soon be consulted. General Musharraf told the visiting dignitaries, who called on him at the grand presidential palace, the Aiwan-e-Sadr, that consensus and joint efforts by Muslim countries would resolve the Palestinian dispute and bring sustainable peace and stability to the Middle East.

For observers, there was an element of disconnect between this and the fast-paced developments the very next day at the very same venue.

Exactly what United States Vice-President Dick Cheney conveyed to the Pakistan President during their two-hour meeting on February 26 no one except the two, and the CIA deputy director Steven Kappes, who was also present, knows for sure. But television footage of an ashen-faced President Musharraf emerging from the meeting seemed to confirm reports that Mr. Cheney, who arrived in Islamabad on an unannounced visit, delivered an "unusually tough" message to the Pakistan leader — show results in the war on terror or else...

Was this the same President Musharraf who, just the day before, was holding forth on what it takes to untangle the world's longest running conflict?

Within Pakistan, there are divergent views on President Musharraf's ambitious new diplomatic venture. One set of commentators sees it as a natural extension of Pakistan's role in the war on terror. In this view, the root cause of terrorism in the world today is Muslim anger over the unresolved issue of Palestine (Kashmir is nowadays hardly ever mentioned in the same breath in Pakistan as it once used to be), and General Musharraf, with his take-the-bull-by-the-horns approach to problems, is just the man for it.

"On problem identification he is clear about where the dots meet and on resolution he knows which buttons to press. He engages with all and had the ability to engage leaders of all orientations. He calls a spade a spade, causes ripples, constructs bridges and creates space for engagement in all spheres," wrote analyst Nasim Zehra in The News. According to her, he "credibly and confidently" straddles the Islamic and the western world.

Other similar-minded analysts have spoken of Pakistan's suitability for playing a lead role in a "Middle East initiative" in the light of its unique position as an Islamic country that is also a frontline ally of the U.S. in the `war on terror.' Its battle against extremism within its own boundaries and President Musharraf's espousal of a vision of enlightened moderation are said to have increased Pakistan's relevance to the Muslim world. The initiative has naturally found support among those who have always believed that as a "modern Islamic republic," Pakistan must play a role of leadership within the Muslim Ummah.

General Musharraf's explanation is that "since the West is looking and searching for methods and new ideas of bringing peace to the region I think any new idea, any new initiative would be acceptable to them as long as it is workable and credible and acceptable to all." There's no guarantee it will succeed, but no harm taking a shot at it, is the line he is taking.

But there are many who question the wisdom, as well as the motives of President Musharraf, in taking on this project. Critics want to know what qualifies him to engage with the biggest problem in the world when he has not made progress on Kashmir, the issue closer home? And why, when Pakistan already has so much on its plate, including a war in Afghanistan for which it is being constantly asked to do more, rebellion in the tribal areas, terrorism, extremism, and increasing sectarian violence at home, a conflict in Balochistan? At a press conference in early February, the President gave the breezy reply to the effect that a man has to do several things at the same time, and that in any case the peace process with India was humming along nicely.

That is not convincing everyone. It is being asked if "agonising for the sake of others" would resolve any of Pakistan's own problems, or is President Musharraf doing this to solve his own political problems? The conclusion has been inescapable after the Cheney visit that the Pakistan President does not enjoy the same level of confidence with the U.S. that he once did. In order to continue in power, win another term as President, and hold national elections on his terms, he needs to remain relevant to the Bush administration. A new diplomatic initiative aimed at resolving the Palestinian crisis and the conflict in Iraq could help him regain some leverage with the west, particularly with the U.S.

Inherent flaws

Commentators have also pointed to the inherent flaws in the initiative. Pakistan, they argue, is seen as a nation that has sold itself to the west, a dirty word for many in the region that General Musharraf now wants to dabble in. In the circumstances, as Ayaz Ameer wrote in the Dawn, it is hardly likely that forces such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and countries such as Iran and Syria, will take Pakistan seriously. Moreover, those that matter most in any discussion on the issues involved — Iran, Syria, Iraq, Palestine, and Lebanon — are noticeably missing from the initiative. The question has been raised if "like-minded" means raising a Sunni bloc against Iran, and, if so, at whose behest? Already the answer to that for many is that Pakistan is acting as a proxy for the U.S. in this matter. The Daily Times commented that the conference had exposed the myth of unity among Muslim countries and had instead raised the possibility of conflict within the OIC. It asked what good it was to deliberate on ways and means to finding peace in Iraq without the participation of Iran.

The explanation from the Foreign Ministry is that Pakistan is in touch with the leaders of all five and is working with them. "It is not a bloc against anyone; it is not a bloc at the behest of anyone. There should be absolutely no misunderstanding. Pakistan would not work on anyone's behest against any other country," the spokesperson said recently. But during his visit to Saudi Arabia, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad himself commented that the seven plus one meeting in Islamabad was a "matter of concern" and that he was trying to find out the "details and goals" of the conference.

Of course, Israel, with which Pakistan does not have diplomatic relations, is missing too from the initiative. While this would be a disadvantage for anyone trying to broker peace in West Asia, in Pakistan speculation is rife that President Musharraf may use the initiative as a backdoor method of establishing relations with Israel.

It would be fair to say that in Pakistan, there is more scepticism about this new venture of President Musharraf than support for it. In the international community, the U.S. is the only country that has welcomed the new initiative by its "absolute frontline ally." The rest have studiously kept their counsel, while they wait to see how the plot unfolds.