Putin in India - A Symbolically Important Visit

Salman Haidar
The Statesman, 1 February

India welcomed Russia's President Putin as the Chief Guest at this year's Republic Day celebrations. For both countries this was a symbolically important visit, for they share a reservoir of goodwill and would wish to keep their well-established ties in good working order. Several highly significant bilateral deals in the sensitive areas of defence, nuclear energy and outer space were finalised during the visit. Of course, there is not much room for sentiment in international dealings, and these fresh arrangements became possible on account of their intrinsic worth and not for any other reason. Fortunately, this is a moment when Russia is resurgent and India is finally coming into its own, so there is an expanding horizon for what the two countries can do together.

Message of democracy

The resurgence of Russia has weighty international consequences. When the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union disintegrated, a power vacuum appeared around Russia that others were quick to try to fill. NATO embarked on an eastward expansion that has not yet taken final form. Central Asia, unexpectedly independent, rich in resources, was drawn away from its earlier moorings into a number of alternative groups pointing towards the West. American military bases sprouted in establishments originally built for the purpose of keeping America out. The Caucasus, final outlier of Europe, went its own way, not always peacefully, after the heavy Soviet hand was lifted. The message of democracy, which had proved to be the winning ideology, was pressed home. Russia could only watch haplessly. Its economy was in a tailspin, its leverage over its 'near abroad' ~ a useful term of Russian provenance ~ in decline. The 15-member 'Commonwealth of Independent States' promoted by Russia in 1991 did not achieve much and was no sort of replacement for the USSR it had succeeded. For a while, Russia itself tried to come within the Western fold as a panacea for its cascading economic problems, only to be disappointed. Its ability to play its full part in the concert of nations was dramatically reduced. Russia's decline could only be temporary, given its vast size and resources, especially its human resources. But its regeneration in the Putin era has created frictions, in part at least because it has come up against rival interests seeking to consolidate themselves where they had gained a foothold.Mr Putin himself, initially hailed and welcomed in the West, has come under criticism as he has followed a more assertive course and sought to raise Russia's profile. His democratic principles are under constant scrutiny while regimes unfriendly to Russia, albeit with claims to democratic credentials, have been established along the Russian periphery. Russia's handling of the separatist insurgency in Chechnya, where Mr Putin has been uncompromising and effective, has drawn much criticism. The most important point of difference, however, is the matter of energy. Russia has emerged as a major energy exporter to Europe, and its energy endowment has given it a strategic clout that its partners and customers cannot ignore. In the sometimes opaque world of oil politics, it is nevertheless evident that Russia is trying to consolidate its strength among Central Asian producers while Western customers are interested in reducing Russian ascendancy. New pipelines are being built that bypass Russia and try to nullify the geographical advantage it enjoys as the transit country for Central Asian oil.The language and sometimes bitter differences expressed can be reminiscent of the Cold War, but the stakes and motivations are very different. What is evident is that Russia is no docile giant, and as its economy strengthens, its influence within its region is waxing. Even outside the immediate region, a more assertive Russian stance is to be seen. Russia has conspicuously distanced itself from American actions in Iraq and Iran, and has repeatedly tried to concert opinion behind an alternative approach to the crises of the Middle East. This may not have achieved important results but it is an indication of its increasing discomfort with a world dominated by one country alone, something that Russia sees as adverse to its own interest. As a counter, Russia insists on the UN playing its proper part in conflict and crisis management, and tries to strengthen its own cooperation with major countries like India, Brazil, Egypt and others that aspire to an independent approach to global affairs. No doubt some of these issues would have been part of the dialogue between the leaders when Mr Putin came here, within the 'strategic partnership' they are trying to shape. However, more down-to-earth bilateral matters were the principal focus of attention. Two areas of ongoing collaboration were given a major boost, atomic energy and defence. These are among the most significant areas of activity for any state, so the agreements announced when Mr Putin was here can be regarded as a measure of the closeness of the bilateral India-Russia tie.

Main armourer

Even earlier, Russia had taken initiatives in the area of atomic energy, whether fuel supply or collaboration on the Kudankulam project, and this has now been followed up with agreements for the supply of further nuclear power units. In defence, agreements on missile production and the supply of the latest aircraft represent another important step and help consolidate Russia's position as India's principal armourer. It should be noted nevertheless that in today's circumstances such deals that build on old associations must surmount difficult political and commercial challenge. Suppliers from abroad look at India's full coffers and make their own bid for a share. American aircraft manufacturers have been hovering around for some time, seeking an entry into a lucrative market from which they have long been excluded. Similarly, there are many Western suppliers eager to sell nuclear power stations to India, so Russia's success in adding to what it has already provided would have come only after stiff competition. On the other side of the coin, India has to offer commercially acceptable terms if it is to succeed in its effort to obtain oil exploitation rights in Sakhalin. So while the two countries have maintained, even strengthened, their close ties, the rules of the game are changing.

The author is India’s former Foreign Secretary