Wheels within the nuclear wheels

Raju Santhanam
The Statesman, 20 November

The Left “clearance” for the IAEA talks does not represent a weakening either in the Left position or a “thaw” in the relations between the two major UPA partners. It begs a bigger question: is the Congress misreading the Left again?

Actually, the chances of a mid-term election have only increased. The reason: the nuclear deal, the bone of contention, will come up again as a make-or-break issue when the Left-Congress committee meets to consider the India-specific safeguards.

Ironically, everyone including the Left acknowledges that not many know or realise the implications of the nuclear deal except a select few of the SMS generation. The issue is unlikely to influence the voter. In addition, a Parliament resolution on the deal, whether put to vote or not, would hardly enthuse voters burdened by aam aadmi issues. Yet by hardening their positions, Mr Prakash Karat and Dr Manmohan Singh ~ both driven by conviction and for their own ideological reasons ~ appear to be steering the country towards yet another mid-term poll.

Each side is hugely suspicious of the other. If Mr. Karat’s hobnobbing with the likes of Amar Singh was not taken to very kindly, statements emanating from senior ministers threatening elections have also not helped. The Left’s green signal for talks with the IAEA has to be seen in the context of mutual suspicion between a nuclear “love-struck “ Congress and an embittered Left that is determined the country have no truck with the USA. While the Left-Congress marriage is clearly on the rocks what has added to their plight is lack of communication and mutual suspicion.

The question everyone in Delhi is asking is why the Left has “given in” on the IAEA talks. When such a suggestion was made in the first week of October, the Left rejected it outright. What has changed since then? Is this merely to give Dr Singh face? If the government returns from the IAEA talks and the Left rejects its proposal, would that not cause greater loss of face? Or, is the Left move a googly that would finally lead to a face-off?

The facts that come tumbling out are too clear to miss. With the Left green signal, the following things have been set into motion. A quick agreement with the IAEA to get India specific safeguards before the UPA committee, further discussions with the Nuclear Supplier Group, then ratification by the US Congress. But the proponents of the deal are running against time.

If the US pointsman is to be believed, everything should have been done by early January 2008 for ratification by the US Congress. The Congress in Washington requires a minimum 30-day notice.

Now if the Left has its way, it would ensure that even the intra-UPA committee meeting would not take place before December. In effect, March appears to be cut off point as far as the Bush administration is concerned and already there are murmurs from Left quarters that even if everything is in order the Government should not sign up with Bush, a lame duck outgoing US President.

The Left strategy thus seems to be to buy time and to ensure that nothing substantially moves before February.

On its part, the Congress does not want to waste any time. The proponents of the nuclear deal are taking the Left nod for a yes to the nuclear deal. The Left “clearance” is seen as a virtual go-ahead because commitments in international fora need to be honored. Sources in the Government say if the UPA joint committee rejects the proposal after talks with IAEA then it will have no option but to press for polls. The AICC resolution supporting the nuclear deal will be seen as the entire party’s endorsement of the deal. The ace up the Congress sleeve is the Gujarat Assembly election results slated for December.

However, has enough groundwork been done for mid-term polls? If now the entire exercise of rushing to swing the deal ends up in opposition from the Left once again, it would mean egg on the face unless the logical corollary is the announcement of elections.

A Congress win in Gujarat would certainly embolden the UPA to go for mid-term polls. Internally, the Congress is quoting the Left’s own assessment that the Left would lose at least 20 seats in the event of early Lok Sabha polls.

Therefore, the Left gesture in what seems like a volte-face appears in effect only to be a ruse to buy time. The only reason they allowed the IAEA talks was the suspicion that the Congress might blow the election bugle sooner than anticipated.

With both the Congress and the Left not really budging from stated positions ~ the Left did budge a millimetre ~ the question is who will blink first. In the past, it was the Congress that swallowed its pride and backtracked; within days of a strong Left reaction both Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh offered to put the nuclear deal on hold. The same allies who had supported the deal developed cold feet. Some members of the core group too who were initially prepared to face polls also began having second thoughts. The Congress was then totally unprepared to even threaten mid-term polls.

The first face off could be on 23 December when the Gujarat election results are out. By that time, crucial meetings between IAEA, the NSG and the UPA coordination committee would be under way. There is little chance that by December-end Mr Karat would reconsider and see any merit in the nuclear deal whatever the India specific safeguards. Dr Singh is hardly expected to budge from his position that the Indo-US nuclear deal represents a turning point in the country’s history.

The battle-lines are drawn. On the last occasion, the Congress was clearly surprised by the Left roadblock on the deal. Part of it is also a misreading of the Left, a factor that made Congress lobbyists run to Budhadheb Bhattacharjee and Jyoti Basu.

This time the Congress appears to have finally realised that the Left speaks with one voice. It is more prepared as indications from the AICC session suggest. The Left too is ready to put the government “on autopilot” as Mr Karat himself threatens.

While the Left exercise is calibrated like a chess game, the Congress strategy seems based on factors they have no control over. While a Congress win in Gujarat would embolden the party, a defeat at the hands of Narendra Modi would herald vacillation, indecision and lack of political conviction, something the Congress has displayed in the past.

(The author, a veteran journalist, is a former Resident Editor of The Statesman.)