Nayachar, all cock-and-bull: Nayachar fouls law

Business Standard / Kolkata October 27, 2007

Nayachar Island, the proposed site for the petrochemical hub project of the West Bengal government, would have to be de-notified form the Coastal Regulation Zone Notification of 1991 for setting up industry there.

The island lying at the confluence of Hooghly and Haldi rivers, off Haldia in Medinipur district, falls within the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) area, and is classified as CRZ I and CRZ III.

According to the Notification, setting up of industries is actively prohibited in any area classified as CRZ I, while areas falling within CRZ III could be used for developing pipelines, and conveying systems.

The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF)has conveyed in a recent letter dated October 5 to a Kolkata based NGO called Society for Direct Initiative for Social and Health Action(DISHA) that it had not received any proposal from the state government for setting up of petrochemical or chemical industry in Nayachar island.

The state government is likely to request the West Bengal State Coastal Zone Management Authority to de-notify Nayachar island from the CRZ, said Santanu Chakravorty of DISHA.

“However, the authority did not have the legal powers to de-notify the area from the CRZ on grounds of facilitating industry development”, he claimed.

West Bengal did not have a Coastal Zone Management Plan(CZMP) either, claimed the NGO, further establishing the lackadaisical attitude of the government on environmental issues. West Bengal has a very short coast-line compared to other coastal states, and thereby enhancing the coast-line's geo-ecological importance.

Major portions of Nayachar can be expected to fall under the CRZ I category, claimed the NGO, making it particularly vulnerable against industrial development.

This apart, DISHA noted that the state government had played an active role in evicting 20,000 fishermen from their seasonal fish-drying activities in Jambudwip a few years back, on grounds of protecting the mangroves.

The same government is willing to bend rules for bringing in industrial investment into the state, alleged DISHA.

In another move, the NGO has filed a contempt of court petition against the central and state environment departments in the Calcutta High Court for their inaction after the Court's order to take legal action against unscrupulous realtors and hoteliers at Mandarmoni near Digha.

The local tourism industry constructed hotels on the beach, destroying sand dunes and beach vegetation, alleged S Dev, general secretary of DISHA.

Nayachar, all cock-and-bull: Green hurdle to Bengal’s Nayachar hub plan

Indranil Chakraborty
The Financial Exress, Friday , October 26,

Kolkata, Oct 26The West Bengal government’s plan to include the riverine island of Nayachar off Haldia in the proposed chemical hub is unlikely to get the clearance of the Union ministry of environment & forests unless the Coastal Regulation Zone Notification of 1991 is modified.

After the violent opposition at Nandigram, which was originally proposed as part of the hub, the state had decided to build the hub around the existing petrochemicals facilities at Haldia. To ensure the minimum area requirement, it had then proposed to include Nayachar, a 47sq km natural island formed out of silt from the Hooghly river.

The Union ministry of environment and forests, responding to an application filed under the Right to Information (RTI) Act by a non-governmental organisation, has said the Nayachar island falls within the CRZ are and is classified as CRZ-I and CRZ-III, in line with the CRZ Notification of 1991.

The ministry has said, going by the CRZ notification, only certain listed activities like pipelines, conveying systems and storage of products are permissible.

However, the ministry has said, “In the coastal regulation zone area setting up of industries/expansion of existing industries is a prohibited activity.”

A Senthil Vel, additional director to the ministry, has informed the RTI applicant, Santanu Chacraveri of NGO Disha, that till now it has not received any proposal for setting up of petrochemical or any other chemical industry in Nayachar Island.

Pranabesh Sanyal, one of the four permanent central members of the National Coastal Regulation Authority, said he was not aware Nayachar falls under Zone III.

Sanyal, who along with six other specialists from various fields working on the feasibility study to determine whether there can be any industry in Nayachar under the Jadavpur University initiative, said their report would be ready in the next 15 days.

“I believe that if the chemical hub has to come up in Nayachar, the zone classification has to be changed from I to IV after a proper carrying-capacity study,” said Sanyal. “We are looking at all the aspects and will submit our report soon,” he added.

CRZ is an area between the high tide and low tide zone, plus the maximum area demarcated beyond the highest high tide zone. Under CRZ-V, industry can come up in the area beyond 200 metres of the highest high tide line, which in case of CRZ-I is 500 metres.

Chacraverti is of the opinion that Nayachar should come under CRZ-I. “If some one says that the zoning can be changed then one has to establish why the earlier zoning of Nayachar was wrong,” he said

Nayachar, all cock-and-bull: 'No industry permitted in Nayachar'

Saturday, October 27
Headlinesindia.com

Kolkata: In a jolt to the West Bengal government's proposed chemical hub at Nayachar Island in East Midnapore district, the Centre has stated that no industry could be set up there as it fell under Coastal Regulation Zones-I and III. "The Nayachar island falls within the Coastal Regulation Zone and falls under the category of CRZ-I and CRZ-III ... In the CRZ area setting up of industries/expansion of existing industries is a prohibited activity," Additional Director in the Ministry of Environment and Forests A Senthil Vel said in a letter to Santanu Chakraborty, an activist working for NGO 'Disha'.

Chakraborty had sought information from the MoEF under the RTI Act on whether the ministry had any knowledge of plans to set up petrochemical or any other chemical industry in Nayachar, whether Nayachar was covered under the Coastal Regulation Zone Notification and whether petrochemical or any other chemical industry was permitted there.

In his letter dated October 5, Senthil informed that the MoEF had not received any proposal for setting up of petrochemical or any other industry in Nayachar Island. West Bengal Industry Minister Nirupam Sen had, however, told newsmen on October 15 that the state government had submitted a specific proposal to the Centre for setting up the chemical hub at Nayachar. The proposal for the 11,000 acre hub was approved by the state cabinet on September 25.

Interestingly, although there was a State Coastal Zone Management Authority in West Bengal, the state had no Coastal Zone Management Plan. (PTI)

Nayachar, all cock-and-bull: Plan for chemical plants on Indian island draws flak

Bappa Majumdar
Reuters, Mon September 17

KOLKATA, India, Sept 17 (Reuters) - A plan to establish a chemicals industry complex off India's east coast has run into political and environmental problems, only months after a similar project had to be abandoned.

The communist government of West Bengal state wants to create a low-tax zone on Nayachar Island, with incentives for chemicals, petroleum and petrochemical industries, despite it being protected by environmental laws.

Government officials say Indonesia's Salim group is looking to develop the land in coordination with Indian state-run refiner Indian Oil Corp. (IOC.BO: Quote, Profile, Research).

Nayachar was chosen after a plan to develop farmland in nearby Nandigram along the West Bengal coast met with protests from the farmers whose land was to be taken over. That plan was shelved after police fired on protesters in March, killing 14.

But the environmental cost of the Nayachar project has provoked more protests from opposition groups, and drew flak from members of the communists own ruling alliance, who say a proper environmental assessment needs to be carried out.

Conservationists say the plan could kill marine life, including hundreds of endangered river dolphins, and rob thousands of fishermen of their livelihoods by polluting the Hooghly River delta leading out into the Bay of Bengal.

About 3,000 people live on the 64 sq km (25 sq mile) island, most involved in fishing.

The ecosystem will be damaged even by treated effluent from the chemical factories, which will be spread far by the tides, said Ramapati Kumar, a toxic effect expert for Greenpeace.

"When you do it in a sensitive and biodiverse area like Nayachar, the impact can be enormous, killing rare dolphins and other marine animals," he said. "The Nayachar project will be a disaster if it goes ahead."

NO PROBLEM?

Both Nayachar and Nandigram were chosen partly because of proximity to an existing chemicals complex at Haldia on the coast. But West Bengal's leaders -- the world's longest-serving democratically elected communist government -- deny the area's environment will be spoiled.

"We will take care of all necessary environmental norms and there should not be a problem," Anandadeb Mukherjee, a member of the West Bengal Coastal Authority said, without elaborating.

West Bengal must get permission from the central government to develop the land, which is protected under environmental laws.

The island is owned by the state government. It moved many families there in the late 1980s in a project to stimulate fishing in the area. But the government has not renewed the villagers' lease on their land, and the families will be forced to move on.

West Bengal said it will rehabilitate the affected families, but has not yet given any details.

Heavy industry usually pollutes wherever it is set up, conservationists say, particularly so in India where pollution regulations are not strictly enforced.

Chemical and heavy metals plants in Vapi, a town in western India's Gujarat state, have made it one of the ten most polluted places on Earth, according to a report released last week by the New York-based Blacksmith Institute.

But the strong tides around Nayachar island will spread waste across a much larger area than if the industry was based elsewhere in the state, said Pranabes Sanyal, an environmentalist and member of the National Coastal Zone Management Authority, a government agency.

"We cannot let the government go ahead with a project in an ecologically sensitive area without proper study," said Mortaza Hossain, a state government minister from a key government coalition ally.

Green signal for India

Joyeeta Gupta
TOI, 19 October

In awarding the Nobel peace prize to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Al Gore, the Nobel Committee recognised climate change as the most serious problem affecting human security. In awarding it to Gore, the committee recognised his efforts to put climate change on the political agenda. In awarding it to IPCC, it recognised the institutional framework that collects, collates, and assesses the available science. In awarding it during the leadership of Rajendra Pachauri, it sends a strong message - the future of the climate problem lies in countries like India.

Why? The problem cannot be addressed unless all countries participate and especially the big ones. At present 170 countries are participating in climate treaties. However, the momentum has slowed down since the US has withdrawn from the Kyoto Protocol. In 1996, the US made its acceptance of quantitative greenhouse gas (GHG) targets dependent on developing countries like India and later tried to co-opt these countries through bilateral agreements.

While everyone recognises that at a per capita level the emissions of the latter are low, the sheer size of total emissions makes it critical to include the three largest emitters. However, the US tendency to unilateralism sets a dangerous precedent. If China and India join the US and go unilateral as large powers are often tempted to do, the climate policy regime will collapse risking the lives and livelihoods of the most vulnerable who are located mostly in developing countries as the Delhi Declaration of 2002 emphasised.

Indian foreign policy rhetoric has not changed much. In 1989, at Noordwijk, the government argued that it may be counter-productive to lay down targets for countries which are still striving to raise the living conditions of their masses. While preparing for the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development, the government argued that the developed countries are primarily responsible for the emissions, that developing countries need to fulfil developmental needs first and that the North should transfer resources to the South in order to accelerate the response to climate change.

In June 2007, Pranab Mukherjee reiterated this position in Hamburg. The question is: Will not the impacts of the problem itself reduce the prospects for economic growth and poverty alleviation?

Developing countries are justified in their anger with the North about not having kept its side of the bargain. Climate change agreements are based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, for which the North should take action and show leadership. The North should make technologies and financial assistance available to the South for the South to develop sustainably. If the more debilitating consequences of climate change are to be avoided, global emissions of GHGs must peak in 2015.

With the US making its policy conditional on steps taken by key developing countries, there was a crisis of leadership. Developing countries want the North to take the first steps on emission cuts, while the US clings to technological solutions to bail them out of serious impacts. EU is moving ahead with a unilateral, unconditional target, in the hope of breaking this deadlock. However, without followers the problem will continue unabated and the risks for the 150 or so developing countries may be quite devastating.

India is taking a number of measures, China may be ahead. It has a national energy intensity target which it has divided among the provinces and is setting up a reward system for officials down to local level that recognises their contribution to environmental issues. While both China and India are leveraging international resources through the Clean Development Mechanism and the Global Environment Facility, this will not be enough to make more than a small dent in their energy policy. At the same time comprehensive solutions for countries like China and India are not likely to be found in the West.

The Nobel prize brings with it the responsibility for India to unleash its huge intellectual capital and mobilise all social actors in a small sustainable development revolution.

(The writer is one of the lead authors of the IPCC report.)

Wealth of cities - Local Enterprise Must Be Encouraged

By KP Bhattacharjee
The Statesman, August 7

The West Bengal government is trying to showcase the number of MOUs it has signed with industrialists, particularly from abroad. The government needs to look closely at the reports that have been published by various UN organisations, the European Union, and the international institutes of environment and development. All of them have recommended the need to reduce emission of green house gases while setting up new industries.
It would be pertinent to examine the statement of Governor Mr Gopalkrishna Gandhi, at the convocation of the West Bengal University of Animal and Fishery Sciences on 9 April. He emphasised that while urbanisation was inevitable, it ought not to be carried out at the cost of wetlands and pastures. The state government has to take steps to maintain them. This statement has sent strong signals to state government agencies in the field of environment, wetlands and urban development, such as the West Bengal Pollution Control Board, East Calcutta Wetland Management Authority, Kolkata Metropolitan Development Authority and the Kolkata Municipal Corporation to prevent unplanned urbanisation and protect the wetlands.

Timely warning

The Governor’s warning is timely because the wetlands are in danger of losing their enlistment under the Ramsar Convention if the present trend of construction continues. The government has been reminded that it is not enough to conserve and manage the wetlands that stretch across 12,500 hectares and were included in the Ramsar list in 2002.
The move to set up more industries even at the cost of agricultural and forest lands has resulted in the need for better infrastructure and housing development. Consequently the promoters and builders are constructing highrise apartments, shopping malls, amusement parks wherever wetlands and waterbodies are found in and around the city. In many cases, the promoters have filled up waterbodies though there is a standing law that forbids such activity. Political interference has stalled proceedings against promoters and builders who violate laws.
The promoters are now building on the wetlands of East Kolkata by influencing local officials. This poses a serious threat to fish, flora and fauna and migratory birds. The area is also the city’s natural drainage belt.
As a policy decision, the development of Rajarhat can be faulted. This satellite town is coming up in East Kolkata almost in parallel to Salt Lake. It is the brainchild of the housing minister. Rajarhat’s master plan has not been prepared to suit the local climate and wind movement. It has been observed that movement of the wind over light industries and manufacturing units will flow over the residential areas, affecting the health of the people.
The development of Rajarhat has triggered land speculation. Land sharks have procured thousands of acres stretching from the border of Rajarhat up to Vedic village and beyond. This has triggered a price war. The situation is so critical that town planners and architects have appealed to the state government to enforce laws to minimise land speculation and transfer. The government has decided not to allow construction or any development activity without the approval of the local authorities.
New satellite towns and industries should be set up on non-agricultural land in Howrah and Hooghly. A new town could well have come up in Dankuni as was planned by the urban development department. There was no need for the housing department, whose primary task is to facilitate development and construction of housing, to pitch for a township at Rajarhat. Political rivalry within the party can permanently damage the human settlements and environment.
Climate change is another major topical issue the world over. The “Stern report” and the UK government’s “Tyndall report” have warned that a 90 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases is essential by 2050 to restrict global warming. Current scientific research shows that climate change will accelerate the rise of the sea level rise along much of the coastal area. The rise in water levels will damage agricultural crops, roads, bridges, communications, houses, schools, hospitals, and services. People from these areas will have to move to the interior, resulting in shortage of food, medicine, drinking water and other essential items. It will be a major problem for the government to resettle these displaced persons who are unlikely to return to their coastal settlements. Furthermore, historical monuments, sculptures, and artefacts will be destroyed by the rising water level.
Initially, India didn’t heed the warnings of a climate change. Recent reports indicate that the country has already been affected. According to RK Pachauri, chairman, Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, much can be done in the near future to cut green house gas emission, such as investing in energy efficiency and reforming the energy sector. However, most countries are worried about the cost that would have to be incurred to reduce such emission.
In June 2006, the World Urban Forum of the UN Habitat Conference in Vancouver, attracted many experts from around the world to speak on the state of cities and urban development. There was a consensus that the cities around the world are unable to provide necessary infrastructure facilities, housing, and sufficient green area for the millions of people moving into the cities. In consequence, a huge pressure gets exerted on the infrastructure, services, housing, water supply, green areas and wetlands.
Professor John Friedman, city planner and honorary professor, School of Community and Regional Planning, University of British Columbia, Canada, in his special habitat lecture at the World Urban Forum stated; “True wealth of cities is found to be in the progressive development of assets such as development of indigenous resources through local entrepreneurs, developing local capital, cultural heritage, open spaces, forests, human resources and urban infrastructure rather than depending on outside capital for industrial development”.

Not confident

He elaborated the plight of Mexico and Puerto Rico when the foreign investors left. Local people struggled to survive since there were no indigenous industries nor local entrepreneurs with capital to develop industries based on local resources. He stressed that the role of the government is to facilitate self-motivated development through consultation with the citizens.
This statement is very appropriate to the situation in West Bengal today, where the state government is assisting the foreign investors to acquire large tracts of land in the name of developing Special Economic Zones, industries, townships and ports. The people are never taken into confidence. The government isn’t confident either about the future of these companies, whether they are short-term ventures to exploit land and cheap labour, or whether they will make long-term investments to train and involve the local people.
Foreign investment, in the era of globalisation, is another form of colonisation. Foreign companies and multinationals have already taken over and/or have closed down many local companies/industries, such as those in soft drinks, paper, cement and consumer products. The wealth of our cities is at stake unless the citizens come together to compel the government to encourage local entrepreneurship, open the closed factories and resist the exploitation of resources by the global companies.

The author is executive director, Centre for Human Settlements

What happens when the water runs out?

Kalpana Sharma
The Hindu, 8 May

One billion people in the world lack proper access to potable water. A good number of them are in India. It is incumbent on the state to ensure that the poor are not denied their right to basic necessities.

THE POWER crisis in Maharashtra has occupied many column centimetres in local newspapers. Understandably so as with the onset of summer, life without electricity is hell. It is that in any case in most parts of rural Maharashtra where daily power cuts of up to 15 hours have been the norm for many months. In cities and towns, the power cuts are shorter but still unbearable. Only Mumbai has been spared.

But what no one is talking about is the looming water crisis. One of the fallouts of climate change, the consequence of global warming, will be on water sources. The drying up of water sources will have a direct impact on water availability. As urban areas grow, their demand for water will increase. If on top of this, governments aim to provide 24 hours water to all urban residents, then the demands of the city on the hinterland will escalate hugely. Who will mediate the competing demands between urban water needs and rural survival? Already, the choice of ensuring that urban areas get power while rural areas suffer is laying the ground for inequality and injustice.

At the G8 meeting in Berlin scheduled for June 8, civil society groups plan to launch an End Water Poverty campaign. In India poverty and water poverty go hand in hand. A campaign to bring water to the poorest is closely linked with any campaign to deal with poverty. One billion people in the world lack access to potable water. A good number of them are in India.

The reason the middle class does not agitate quite as much about water as it does about power is because it has the capability to buy water. If municipal water fails, middle class localities order a tanker or two and pay. If the water is released at awkward hours, they have powerful pumps to fill overhead tanks that then ensure water on demand. If the water is not potable, they can afford purification within their homes or buy bottled water — that defining symbol of the commodification of something that ought to be freely available. For the poor, water is available for a few hours, at inconvenient times, and often of poor quality.

The solution that is being offered to deal with the water problem is better management. The government and several municipal authorities, including the one in Mumbai, argue that the problem is not just inadequate supplies of water but bad management practices that affect distribution. Mumbai's residents, for instance, at least on paper gets more water per person a day than residents in most other Indian cities. But although the city gets over 3,000 mld (million litres a day), it loses around 600 mld through leakages and theft. Therefore, officials of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) believe that more efficient management systems need to be in place.

At a recent meeting of Mumbai citizens on the water problem, a senior official from the water department of the MCGM acknowledged that 45 per cent of water meters did not work and that fixing leaking and old pipes was a major headache. Under the existing system of management, an engineer in the BMC has no power to sanction funds to fix a leak even if it is taking place before his eyes, he said. By the time he gets the requisite sanctions, thousands of litres of clean water would have gone down the drain. Therefore, like others in the MCGM, he too felt that the water crisis could be resolved if distribution was handed over to private management.

Is this privatisation of water by the backdoor? Will the municipality ultimately hand over management to private companies and gradually back out altogether from the business of water distribution? In Mumbai, an experiment along these lines is already being tried in K-East ward, an area with a population of close to one million people. A section of the local residents are strongly opposed to it.

Those opposing private sector involvement in water distribution point out that there are dozens of examples from around the world of water privatisation that has gone completely wrong. A new book, brought out by Manthan Abhiyan Kendra (Water: Private, Limited, Issues in Privatisation, Corporatisation and Commercialisation of Water Sector in India by Gaurav Dwivedi, Rehmat and Shripad Dharmadhikari) lists these failures. They range from the famous privatisation effort in Cochabamba in Bolivia that led to the overthrow of a government to others in practically every continent. For instance, between 1996 and 1999, Shenyang, in China, tried out privatisation of water. Ultimately, the state-owned company returned to distribute the water when the price of bulk water became untenable. Another telling example is from Potsdam in Germany where the unjustified hike in water tariffs resulted in the municipality terminating the contract with a private company. In Nairobi, Kenya, a privatisation contract was cancelled for similar reasons.

In most cases, people have rejected private control of what is seen as a public good. Private businesses are interested in the bottom line, in making a profit. Thus, instead of accessibility, affordability and equity, the values that dominate are financial viability and cost recovery. Although in the initial phases, there are assurances that tariffs will not be raised, in time they always go up due to apparent increased costs.

The supporters of privatisation argue that ultimately a more efficient distribution system will benefit the poor, as water will reach them instead of being wasted. Yet, even if it reaches them, will they be able to afford it? One of the schemes reportedly being considered for Mumbai, although the MCGM denies it, is that of prepaid water meters. Like a prepaid card for a cell phone, residents would have to recharge their cards and only then would they be able to access water. If they don't have the money to recharge their cards, then there will be no water. So rich or poor, you pay as you get. Except that the poor most often cannot pay.

The justification given for such systems is that lack of water is forcing the poor to buy water from private sources at exorbitant prices. In some of the most crowded wards of central Mumbai even today pavement dwellers buy their water from "bishis" — men who walk around with a leather water container slung on their backs. These vendors get the water from a private well. Because of the anomaly in our water policy, the water under the ground belongs to the person who owns the land on which a well is located while the surface water, in lakes and rivers, belongs to the government. As a result, the landless and homeless in the cities, including the slum dwellers, still depend on the mercy of the municipality, or the private water vendor. And the rates they pay work out to more than 10 times of those with access to a regular supply of municipal water.

Yet, the solution to cutting out such private water vendors is not a distribution system that is equally unaffordable. A 24-hour supply of water means little to people who will not be in a position to pay the charges if private companies take over distribution and justify raised tariffs in the name of cost recovery.

Before privatisation of water distribution is accepted, we need to have a close look at the success and failures of the private sector in water elsewhere in the world. The record has been murky with unjustified costs being charged by private companies.

While no one will argue that better distribution of water, or for that matter electricity, and cutting wastage are essential, when there are systemic inequities, such as the absence of decent housing that also means little or no water and electricity, just efficient distribution is not enough. In cities, the wastage is not just due to leakages but the profligate use of water by the better- off. Like electricity, this is the section that needs to be told about saving water, because current usage patterns will ensure that there is never enough water.

Yet, even as governments and municipalities work out schemes to bring in water to cities, they fail to launch campaigns that will make the water-rich aware of a scarce resource.

The state sector has failed on many fronts and has not necessarily been the most efficient. But good management practices and private ownership are not coterminous. Also, where equity and accessibility have to be guaranteed, it is incumbent on the state to ensure that in the name of efficiency, the poor are not denied their right to basic necessities like water, or for that matter sanitation and decent housing.

The great Himalayan meltdown

N. Gopal Raj
The Hindu, 10 April

Glaciers that feed the seven great rivers of Asia — Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze, and Huang Ho — are under threat.

AS THE world warms inexorably, glaciers in the Himalayas are melting away, putting at risk freshwater supplies for millions of people in Asia.

The 33,000 sq km of glaciers amidst some of the world's highest mountains form the largest concentration of glaciers outside the polar ice caps. These glaciers, which release an estimated 8.6 million cubic metres of water annually, have nourished seven great rivers of Asia — Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze, and Huang Ho. Ancient civilisations sprang up and thrived along the shores of these rivers.

But now the pace of global warming is threatening the very existence of the Himalayan glaciers. Since the mid-1970s, the average air temperature measured at 49 stations of the Himalayan region rose by one degree Celsius, with high elevation sites warming the most, noted a report compiled in 2005 by WWF, the global conservancy organisation.

"This is twice as fast as the 0.6 degrees Celsius average warming for the mid-latitudinal northern hemisphere over the same period and illustrates the high sensitivity of mountain regions to climate change," added the report.

The Himalayan glaciers could disappear in the coming decades and the once perennial rivers turn into seasonal ones, noted the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the final draft of its report on the impact, adaptation and vulnerability produced by global warming.

"In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water availability in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges, where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives," according to a summary of the report that the IPCC released on April 6. Waters from the melting glaciers would also contribute to rising sea levels, which the IPCC warns would devastate many coastal areas and affect millions of people around the world by 2080.

Longer ablation periods

Himalayan glaciers are very vulnerable to climate change, says Syed Iqbal Hasnain, a leading glaciologist who is currently with the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi. It is not just that higher temperatures lead to more ice turning to water. The "ablation period" when the glaciers melt in summer has lengthened. Earlier, by October-November it would start snowing. In recent years, it is still often quite warm during those months and the snows set in only later in winter, he remarked.

The late snows produce another problem. The snowflakes need several months to turn into hard ice crystals. Without the time needed for such transformation, more of the glacier is liable to melt when summer comes, Dr. Hasnain told this correspondent.

The south-west monsoon that brings torrents of rain to the plains of India deposits snow on the upper reaches of mountains in central and eastern Himalayas. But climatic changes have led to rain, rather snow, falling even at higher elevations during the monsoon and this could accelerate the melting of glaciers, he added.

In the face of these threats, the Himalayan glaciers are receding alarmingly. Several studies have indicated that the rate at which these glaciers are retreating has accelerated in recent decades. The Gangotri glacier, whose melted waters feed the river Ganga, has, for instance, been receding since 1780 but its rate of retreat has tripled in the last three decades.

Anil Kulkarni of the Indian Space Research Organisation's Space Applications Centre in Ahmedabad and fellow researchers used satellite pictures to study 466 glaciers in the Chenab, Parbati, and Baspa basins.

These glaciers had covered 2,077 sq. km in 1962. But by 2001-2004, the area occupied by these glaciers had shrunk by 21 per cent, reported the scientists in a paper published earlier this year. As the glaciers retreated, they also became more fragmented and therefore more vulnerable to the affects of global warming.

French and Indian scientists have been studying glaciers in the Spiti-Lahaul region of Himachal Pradesh. In a paper published recently, the scientists found that the glaciers, which occupied some 900-odd sq. km., had experienced "significant thinning at low elevations" between the fall of 1999 and November 2004. Worse still, the rate of ice loss in the glaciers during that time was about double the average for the Himalayas between 1977 and 1999. This indicated "an increase in the pace of glacier wastage," observed the scientists in their paper. However, in an email, Etienne Berthier, the first author of the paper, noted that the survey period had been short and further monitoring was required to assess a long-term trend.

A modelling exercise carried out by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Britain found that as the Himalayan glaciers melted in the face of global warming, there would initially be an increase in river discharges, which could produce widespread flooding, and then the river flows would decline. The model studies indicated that flows in rivers originating in the western Himalayas could peak in 2050 and in 2070 for rivers originating in eastern Himalayas, according to Rajesh Kumar of the Birla Institute of Technology extension centre in Jaipur, who was involved in the study.

"Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding, rock avalanches from destabilised slopes and affect water resources within the next two to three decades," according to the latest IPCC summary report. This would be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers receded, it added.

Scientists have estimated that melting snow and glaciers provides up to 80 per cent of the dry season flows of the Indus, Ganga, and Brahmaputra rivers in the lowlands. As these river flows fall, agriculture, water supplies on which millions of people depend, and power generation will be badly affected.

Glacial retreat in the Himalayas, along with possible changes in monsoon rainfall as a result of climate change, would have far-reaching consequences for water availability in the South Asian region, points out Prakash Rao, senior coordinator for the climate change and energy programme at WWF India. Water-sharing disputes within and between countries in the region, that were already proving troublesome, could worsen as a result, he told The Hindu.

"Climate change will devastate India"

Daphne Wysham and Smitu Kothari
The Hindu, 9 April

In South Asia, millions of people will find their lands and homes inundated, according to a draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

A FINAL draft of a report leaked from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to the authors lays out shocking scenarios for India and the rest of South Asia. The summary for policy makers that was released by the IPCC on Friday is a call for urgent action globally.

While shocking, the fuller final draft version of the Second Working Group of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, which may be watered down before final publication, makes for even more sobering reading: It lays out in explicit detail what lies ahead for India and the rest of Asia. It also presents an opportunity for the country to take the lead in defining a more secure and sustainable future for itself.

Here are some of the devastating consequences detailed in the provisional February 16, 2007, IPCC report on Asia: Sea levels will rise by at least 40 cm by 2100, inundating vast areas on the coastline, including some of the most densely populated cities whose populations will be forced to migrate inland or build dykes — both requiring a financial and logistical challenge that will be unprecedented. In the South Asian region as a whole, millions of people will find their lands and homes inundated. Up to 88 per cent of all of Asia's coral reefs, termed the "rainforests of the ocean" because of the critical habitat they provide to sea creatures, may be lost as a result of warming ocean temperatures.

The Ganga, Brahmaputra, and Indus will become seasonal rivers, dry between monsoon rains as Himalayan glaciers will continue their retreat, vanishing entirely by 2035, if not sooner. Water tables will continue to fall and the gross per capita water availability in India will decline by over one-third by 2050 as rivers dry up, water tables fall or grow more saline. Water scarcity will in turn affect the health of vast populations, with a rise in water-borne diseases such as cholera. Other diseases such as dengue fever and malaria are also expected to rise.

Crop productivity will fall, especially in non-irrigated land, as temperatures rise for all of South Asia by as much as 1.2 degrees C on average by 2040, and even greater crop loss — of over 25 per cent — as temperatures rise to up to 5.4 degrees C by the end of the century. This means an even lower caloric intake for India's vast rural population, already pushed to the limit, with the possibility of starvation in many rural areas dependent on rainfall for their crops. Even those areas that rely on irrigation will find a growing crisis in adequate water availability.

Mortality due to heat-related deaths will climb, with the poor, the elderly and daily wage earners and agricultural workers suffering a rise in heat-related deaths.

This grim future awaits India in the coming century. The irony is that much of this damage will be self-inflicted, unless the country is prepared to make a radical, enlightened change in its energy and transportation strategies.

We are truly at a crossroads: Either we can be complacent or wait for leadership from a reluctant United States, the largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, or begin to take action now, regardless of what other countries do.

The path that India has taken thus far, of waiting until wealthy countries take action on global warming, is understandable if viewed in isolation.

The U.S., the U.K., and other countries in the wealthy North, have developed their economies largely thanks to fossil fuels. It is only fair that India be allowed to attain the same standard of living before curbing its emissions.

But as the IPCC report makes clear, while it may be "fair" to do so, it is also suicidal for India to pursue any strategy but the least carbon-intensive path toward its own development. Wealthy, less populous countries in the North are very likely — and very unfairly — going to suffer fewer devastating blows to their economies, and may actually benefit with extended growing seasons, while India and other South Asian nations will dramatically and painfully suffer if action is not taken now.

Today, much of India's energy comes from coal, most of it mined in the rural areas of Orissa, Jharkhand, and Bihar with devastating consequences. Tribals and small and marginal peasants are being forced to resettle as these mines grow wider by the day. Inadequate resettlement plans mean more migration of landless populations to urban slums. The environment is being destroyed by these mines and their waste products — among them fly ash laced with heavy metals and other toxic materials.

But the biggest irony of this boom in coal-fired power is that much of the power is going to export-oriented, energy-intensive industry. Look at Orissa's coal belt and you will find a plethora of foreign-owned and Indian aluminium smelters, steel mills, and sponge iron factories — all burning India's coal, at a heavy cost to local populations — then exporting a good share of the final product to the China, the U.S. or other foreign markets.

Volatile mix

Add to the problem of export-oriented, energy-intensive industry the problem of carbon trades, and you have a volatile mix. India is one of the top destinations globally in the growing carbon market. In exchange for carbon trade projects in India, wealthy polluters in the North are able to avoid restrictions on their own emissions. Rather than financing "clean development" projects as promised, many of these trades are cheap, dirty, and harmful to the rural poor. Fast-growing eucalyptus plantations are displacing farmers from their land and tribals from their forests.

Sponge-iron factories are garnering more money from carbon trades earned by capturing "waste heat" than from the production of the raw material itself. Toxic fly ash from coal-fired power plants is being turned into bricks, and the carbon that would have been released from traditional clay-fired brick kilns, is now an invisible commodity that can be sold as carbon credits. These carbon trades are not helping finance clean energy and development for India's rural poor.

Add to this the special economic zones or SEZs — forcing people off their land, where blood, often of the most vulnerable, is shed at the altar of development.

Global warming will tighten this growing squeeze to a noose, as huge areas of Bangladesh go underwater and environmental refugees flood across India's borders. The leaked final draft of the IPCC report shows that Bangladesh is slated to lose the largest amount of land globally — approximately 1000 square km of cultivated land — due to sea level rise.

Where will all of those hungry, thirsty, landless millions go? Most will flock to the border looking for avenues to enter, exacerbating an already tense situation not only in the States contiguous to Bangladesh but in cities as far off as Mumbai and Delhi.

Undoubtedly, global warming is not fair. It is exacting the highest price on those least responsible for the problem. But India can show the world that there is another way forward: A self-interested, self-preserving way, focussed on clean energy such as solar and wind; on energy efficiency; on providing for its own population's energy needs ahead of foreign corporations; on public transportation plans that strengthen India's vast network of rail and bus transportation routes, rather than weakening it with public subsidies to massive highways and to automakers. The IPCC final draft report urges India and other Asian countries to prepare for the coming climate apocalypse with crop varieties that can withstand higher temperatures, salinated aquifers, and an increase in pests. It also advises better water resource management and better disease monitoring and control. While important, prevention is always the best medicine.

The IPCC final draft report should be seen as a conservative assessment of what lies in store. It clearly implies that incremental or palliative responses to reduce vulnerability are not the answer. India and the other countries of the region need to take a preventative approach by moving their economies away from fossil fuels and toward clean, renewable forms of energy. This is the only way of preserving a sustainable way of life that could be a model for the world. If it pursues what is "fair" in a warming world by continuing to argue that industrialised nation are to blame and need to take urgent action, it will be placing the noose around its own neck while the hangman looks on.

(Daphne Wysham is a Fellow, Institute for Policy Studies, Washington and Smitu Kothari is Director, Intercultural Resources, Delhi and Visiting Professor, Princeton University.)