EAT, DRINK AND BE SECURE - Food security and water security go hand in hand

ASHOK GANGULY
The Telegraph, 22 January

There was a record fall in global foodstocks last year owing to a number of factors. These include changing dietary patterns in developing countries, diversion of agricultural land used for wheat, oilseeds, and so on, to grow corn for bio-fuel production in the United States of America and Europe, and the impact of climate change resulting in unusually heavy rains, floods and storms in some parts of the world and prolonged drought in others.

The rise in world prices of food- grains, after many years, has led to the coining of a new term, ‘agflation’. This is a primary cause of rising inflation, especially in poorer countries, where 50 per cent or more of family income goes towards food consumption.

Some see the rise in international food prices as an advantage for farmers since, logically, their incomes should be increasing. However, in developing countries, because of a complex mix of subsidies, price support and procurement mechanisms, much of the gain from rising food prices remains unrealized in the hands of the farmers.

The fall in global foodstocks, the rise in the prices of cereals, oilseeds and pulses, and the reluctance of governments to interfere with subsidized farming, are primarily why the World Trade Organization’s Doha round remains in limbo, and may not even see the light of day.

The growing consumption of fossil fuels, together with its impact on global warming and climate change, is now universally acknowledged, although how to deal with the problem remains unresolved. Non-conventional and renewable energy sources are being aggressively promoted as substitutes. These fall into three categories: unconventional energy sources which are ten to twenty years away from commercialization, such as hydrogen fuel cells and silicon nano chips. Then there are currently applicable technologies such as solar cells and wind energy although they need financial subsidies to be viable. Furthermore, nuclear power is, once again, gaining acceptance as an important source of clean energy. In addition, there are the agro-based renewable sources such as corn, sugarcane and rapeseed, which, though subsidized, are already being commercially used around the world.

Somehow the impression that bio-fuels are environment friendly has gained popularity, although there is no basis to this assumption in scientific reality, as these contribute equally to carbon dioxide emissions. On the contrary, while diverting more land to growing crops for the production of bio-fuels may provide psychological relief for energy security, such land diversion is already pushing up food prices and depleting world foodstocks.

Although the technology to convert agricultural waste into bio-fuels is a more attractive proposition and may become commercially attractive in the future, the process technologies are still at an early stage of development and, in any case, are unlikely to be any more climate-friendly compared to the crops being used at present to produce fuel supplements. Thus, the problem of energy security remains far from clear at this point in time, while the issue of food security is emerging as a serious problem.

The problem of food security is exacerbated by the fact that, in countries like China and India, the diet of the growing middle class now includes more meat, poultry and eggs. To grow farm animals and poultry requires much more agricultural feedstock per unit of output compared to the crops being consumed directly by humans. Amongst vegetarians in India, the per-capita consumption of pulses and edible oils is growing as well, pushing up the international prices of these commodities.

The production of foodgrains and the level of foodstocks have also been adversely affected by climate change. Climate change is considered responsible for prolonged droughts in Australia and in parts of the US. On the other hand, there are now more incidents of unseasonal heavy rains and floods in other parts of the world. In India, the precipitation during the monsoon months may not have changed significantly, but rains have become erratic, with sudden outbursts of heavy rains followed by long periods of lull, besides being unevenly distributed. This is generating a great deal of uncertainty in the agricultural sector and a drop in farm productivity. There are other longstanding factors for the decline in agriculture such as the over-use of soil, fertilizers and chemicals.

Food security and water security go hand in hand. In the absence of good water-management, and with the diversion of irrigation-water to grow crops for bio-fuels, it is important to include water-availability while assessing the equation of food and energy security.

In India, it is claimed that more than 99 per cent of monsoon precipitation flows into the sea. The absence of water-harvesting and other conservation measures is leading to a shortage in per-capita water-availability, in cities as well as in rural areas. Experts claim that water shortage will be even more acutely felt before that of climate change.

The issues of diverting agricultural land for bio-fuel production, the problems related to energy security and climate change and, finally, reducing per-capita potable water availability pose challenges and opportunities of unprecedented dimensions. Renewable sources for bio-fuels have severe limitations which need to be better comprehended and dealt with. Harvesting rain water, in cities and in rural watersheds, has become urgent. Use of genetically modified seeds, and original research and new technologies in manufacturing, transportation and services are the stuff of a new economic revolution. Since all these issues affect each of us, they need to be aired more widely in the public domain. Food and fuel prices edging out of the reach of the common people, compounded with decreasing availability of potable water, needs collective effort and cannot be left solely to experts and policy-makers.