Thursday, October 30, 2008

REFORMS GONE HAYWIRE - A wholesale repudiation of progressive taxation

Ashok Mitra
The Telegraph
November 29, 2004


The word, ?comprador?, of 16th-century vintage, has its roots in the Portuguese language. It has, however, travelled far and wide since. It originally meant a native house-steward, at least so suggest the dictionaries. Gradually, in the heady colonial days, comprador came to connote a native servant employed as head of the native staff, and as agent, by European commercial and business houses. In the course of the past century, particularly in the context of Latin America, the expression has assumed a more pointed significance. A comprador is now an individual who not only acts as agent representing foreign interests, but who, in addition, almost as a matter of principle, places the interests of foreigners above those of his native country.

Political economy in Latin America is full of rich debates concerning traits and symptoms of compradorism as well as stages and phases of the comprador epoch. The reverberation of these debates has not quite reached India. This is understandable, for Indian scholars have greater respect for pucca Western strands of thought. That does not mean though that the practice of compradorism has lagged behind here. The decade of the Nineties is for India about as important, one is almost tempted to say, as the final decades of the 18th century were for the advent of the Romantic era in Europe. Indians have learnt in the course of this decade that to be gracious to foreigners is the quintessence of economics; that is to say, the interest of foreigners must precede national interests. Which is why in 1994 the American consultancy group, Enron, was allowed to float a power-plant company in Maharashtra whose equity was to vest one hundred per cent with the Americans, while the bulk of the investible funds needed for it were to be provided by Indians.

The Indian authorities also agreed to sign a power purchase agreement which accepted as commonplace the notion that the Enron corporation would sell power to the natives at a price much, much higher than the price paid for per unit of power produced by plants installed by Bhopal?s Bharat Heavy Electricals in several places in the country. Intense debate took place in parliament over the wisdom of the deal struck with Enron, but all questions raised by doubters were brushed aside.

Foreigners, the nation was informed, know better; foreigners are ipso facto efficiency personified, and we must, for efficiency?s sake, pay them through the nose. There was some gossip that, to facilitate the adoption of such a stance by the ministry of finance and the ministry of power in New Delhi and the state government of Maharashtra, some money had passed hands. Even if the gossip had some basis, that was, however, an integral part of comprador culture. Native agents are ? foreigners take it for granted ? entitled to some bucksheesh for services they render, services that most of the time go against the native country?s interests. It is a different matter that Enron was soon found out to be, in the United States of America itself, a crooks? opera, and the projected power plant at Dabhol came to an ignominious end.

The recent hullabaloo over the legitimacy or otherwise of subsidies for oil and gas supplied to domestic consumers tells a story which has a grotesque overlap with the Enron incident. The terms of the power purchase agreement signed with Enron amounted to offering a hefty subsidy to the foreign firm. Such a subsidy was then considered to be a noble act. A different tune is now being sung over the persistent public demand that the domestic price of oil and gas supplied to domestic consumers be subsidized through a reduction in import and excise duties. Such slashing of duties is akin to subsidy, which the public is being told, is sin; one must not charge for a product a price lower than its cost, such practice allegedly retards economic efficiency.

It is all great fun. Those in authority are aghast at the suggestion to subsidize domestic consumers. There could be greater sins. Forget Enron. Barely a couple of years ago, exactly such a sin was committed by the government of India when, following directives from the World Trade Organization, it lowered import tariffs on 500-odd farm products, including wheat, cotton, tobacco, copra and rubber. In effect, by lowering the tariffs, the Indian authorities offered subsidies to foreign producers and exporters so as to enable them to lower their prices and thereby eject the home produces from the Indian market. In consequence, hundreds of Indian farmers experienced indescribable hardship; some of them were driven to commit suicide. Tariffs were lowered and subsidy offered to foreigners at the cost of Indian farmers; the government was not at all concerned if, in the process, domestic interests were adversely affected; comprador ethos was in uninhibited flow: sin is no sin if committed to further foreign interests.

The dictum has gradually attained respectability. Subsidies are all right if they promote foreign interests; they are otherwise if they promote a domestic cause. Lowering excise duties on oil and natural gas is resisted by the authorities because such a reduction will offer relief to domestic consumers. This, according to the authorities, is impermissible; domestic consumers are not foreigners.

Come to think of it, the country?s taxation policy, already incorrigibly pro-rich, has gradually undergone a comprador tilt as well. This is only natural, since taxes and subsidies are aspects of the same phenomenon: a tax is a negative subsidy, a subsidy is negative taxation. Since 1991, while direct taxes have been continuously lowered for companies, including foreign companies and upper income groups, indirect taxes have been raised. Lowering direct taxes is equivalent to offering subsidies to affluent citizens and foreigners. On the other hand, a stiffening of indirect taxes, the incidence of which falls mostly on the relatively poor, is akin to lowering subsidies for the poor.

Indian economic policy has therefore evolved into a compound of two principal objectives: first, promoting the interests of foreigners against those of the native crowd, and second, furthering the interests of the rich by putting an increasing squeeze on the poor. This is economics made easy, and is being religiously put into practice by the craftsmen at work in New Delhi.

Examples of how far the government has proceeded in the pursuit of these twin goal are indeed galore. Consider, for instance, the Central Electricity Act 2003. Subsidy, the act echoes, is sin; cross-subsidy is equally so. The state electricity boards have been enjoined by the act not to charge affluent consumers at rates higher than costs and use the proceeds of such higher charges to offer lower rates to poorer consumers. Cross-subsidy of this nature is supposed to be bad economics. The act, passed last year, has the vociferous support of the government of India and its various institutions, including the Planning Commission.

Nobody seemingly bothers to consider that abolition of the principle of cross-subsidy is really a wholesale repudiation of the structure of progressive taxation, the centrepiece of public finance in the Western world since the middle of the 19th century. According to the doctrine of progressive taxation, the rich have the ability to bear a higher rate of taxation compared to the poor, and therefore deserve to be taxed at a higher rate. Receipts from tax-payers in upper-income ranges, taxed at higher rates, have, over the past 150 years, provided the funds in country after country for essential social services specifically aimed at ameliorating the conditions of the poorer classes. The Central Electricity Act 2003 and its proponents have gone on record defying this basic canon of public finance. And we are supposed to accept all this in the name of economic reforms.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

REVERIES OF EQUILIBRIUM - It is time for an alternative economics

Ashok Mitra
The Telegraph
February 20, 2006


Walras showed through his mathematical exercise that if all these conditions, which define a perfect market, were satisfied, the market would reach a state of equilibrium at the end of the day, yielding maximum possible satisfaction to all buyers and all sellers. His exercise became known as general equilibrium analysis; the conclusion was drawn that, under conditions of perfect competition, the market, any market anywhere, all markets in the country would reach a situation where welfare would be optimized for all participants in the market transaction. Walras was succeeded in the chair at Lausanne by another engineer-turned-economist. Vilfredo Federico Damaso Pareto, who spelt out the Walrasian exercise in the form of a theorem, which was formally described as the Pareto Optimum: equilibrium is that state of affairs where nobody in society can be better off without making somebody else worse off, and vice versa.

This idyllic system set rivers of enthusiasm on amongst economists in the generations that followed. A dream, a beautiful dream, where welfare is maximized for each and all, but only if conditions of perfect competition obtained. Economic analysis proceeded at breakneck speed to unravel the different facets of general equilibrium. The fulfilment of the dream was contingent upon perfect competition being the market reality. Over-zealous economists, however, performed a neat reversal trick. The assumption, they pretended, was the reality, and markets everywhere were taken to be as perfect as the conditionalities of the Walrasian equilibrium required them to be.

This was nothing short of outrageous. The perfect market, where all sellers and buyers have the same economic clout and are imbued with the same stock of knowledge and communicability, is a rarity. On the contrary, conditions of monopoly (domination of one seller over others) and monopsony (domination of one buyer over others) tend to be the rule. The best text in English on general economic analysis is John Hicks?s classic, Value and Capital. Having explored the nooks and corners of general equilibrium analysis in severe detail, Hicks suddenly has an attack of conscience. He cannot deny the reality that the typical firm often exercises a major influence over the prices at which it sells its products and is therefore, to some extent, a monopolist, which means that market conditions deviate from the conditions of perfect competition.

He follows up this admission by the somewhat apologetic observation: ?it has to be recognized that a general abandonment of the assumption of perfect competition, a universal adoption of the assumption of monopoly, must have very destructive consequences for economic theory. Under monopoly, the stability conditions become indeterminate; and the basis on which economic laws can be constructed is therefore shorn away.? This, he admits, will make a ?wreck? of economic theory. So what is to be done?

Please listen to what he says: ?It is, I believe, only possible to save anything from this wreck ? and it must be remembered that the threatened wreckage is that of the greater part of general equilibrium theory ? if we can assume that the markets confronting most of the firms with which we shall be dealing do not differ very greatly from perfectly competitive markets.?

Does it not sound like a version of the rake?s progress? What was a dream is converted into a hypothesis. The hypothesis is establishable only on the basis of an assumption. Since the assumption is at variance with market realities, the armchair economist is overtaken by panic: what is going to happen to his pet economic theory if this fact is candidly acknowledged? Saving the theory, the conclusion is reached, is the more important task. The final recourse, therefore, is in pretending that the world is not what it is, but what the sophisticate set of economists wish it to be.

It would not have mattered much if such economists were left to their devices in the confines of the lecture rooms. Unfortunately, the fudging done by them has become the dogma of those who control the international economic system. The tenets based on the general equilibrium analysis, it is now being insisted, must be observed by all, including the weakest economies of the world. Existing global conditions however hardly reflect those of the perfect market. Countries entering international trade differ widely in their economic strength. They differ widely in their political and military prowess as well; the economic divergences consequently grow even wider. The World Trade Organization nonetheless proceeds as if all countries have the same economic capability and the same resource endowment. Even if, for historical and other reasons, some countries lag behind, they must, the WTO ordains, take measures ignoring the existence of such inequalities of status and conditions.

Would it not be sin though to give in to the monstrous conspiracy that is on? Perhaps social scientists in countries at the receiving end of the inequities resulting from the distorted use of the general equilibrium system should form core groups of their own and return economics to its ancient pledges. Economics in its early phases, was intended to further the wealth and welfare of people. Classical political economy ? as developed by Adam Smith, and then by David Ricardo and, in the final round, by Karl Marx ? did not deviate from the objective. Adam Smith directed his ire against those masters who exploited their employees; that is why he favoured free competition which, he hoped, would restrain the monopolists.

Ricardo?s principal campaign was against the landlords whose precepts and policies retarded economic growth and thereby stifled the welfare of citizens at large. Marx, of course, travelled the furthest and strove to prove that whatever production takes place in society is the exclusive contribution of labour, both direct and ?embodied? in capital; the fruits of such production should therefore belong in entirety to the working class.

It is time for an alternative economics, an economics which would be much more faithful to its classical roots than what is preached by the vandals at large, blabbering about general equilibrium.

Friday, July 11, 2008

STOP RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINATION OF NAGARJUNASAGAR

Dear Friends...


The first temple of Modern India, NagarjunaSagar, World's Largest Masonry Dam, which provides drinking and irrigation water to over 200million people in five districts of Andhra Pradesh is under threat from Radioactive Contamination.

Please sign this online petition to Stop The Nuclear Radioactive Contamination of Nagarjunasagar Reservoir:

http://www.Petition Online.com/ ANTINUKE/ petition.html

HISTORY OF THE CASE: Uranium Corporation of India Limited (UCIL) after having wrecked havoc with the lives of people of Jharkhand with its Uranium Mining there: children born with deformiities, genetically mutated fruits, animals and humans, still births, women with multiple abortions or loosing children, cancers etc...due to the radioactive wastes floating around the region and filling up the Subernarekha river; has now decided to wreck havoc with the lives of the people in A.P.

So, in 2003, they declared that they will be mining for Uranium in Peddagattu and Lambapur villages (tribal villages) - with the mining site just about one kilometer away from the Nagarjuna sagar Reservoir. Most of the water supplied to Hyderabad comes from here...in addition to five districts which get their irrigation supplied from here. .

They called for two Environmental Public Hearings where people vociferously opposed the project.

But the Ministry of Environemnt and forests gave the licences to the UCIL for mining at Peddagattu and Lambapur saying it is "site specific"

The Movement Against Uranium Projects (MAUP) has filed a petition asking for suspension of the licenses granted to UCIL.

As on date the case is pending with the National Environment Appellate Authority.

But our good old UCIL is trying its tricks once again...they are going to the villages of Peddagattu and Lambapur and trying to coerce the villagers to accept the project somehow or the other. The villagers are cut off from the mainstream. They are strongly opposing the project. But under the coercive tactics of the UCIL like bring the CRPF police when they come to speak to the people etc...creating fear among the innocent tribal people, we cannot say, how long these people can withstand the pressure from the Powers That Be.

So, it is time we all pitch and stand by the courageous people who are fighting the mighty UCIL...for our own health, our children and the safety of our PLANET.

Do sign the petition online:

http://www.Petition Online.com/ ANTINUKE/ petition.html
Regards
saraswati kavula
Movement Against Uranium Projects
Hyderabad

Friday, July 04, 2008

Deepening Cycle of Job Loss Seen Lasting Into ’09

NYT, July 2, 2008
PETER S. GOODMAN

As automakers dropped their latest batch of awful sales numbers on the market on Tuesday, reinforcing the gloom spreading across the economy, the troubles confronting American workers seemed to intensify.

Plummeting home prices have in recent months eliminated jobs for hundreds of thousands of people, from bankers and real estate agents to construction workers and furniture manufacturers. Tighter lending standards imposed by banks in the wake of huge mortgage losses have made it hard for many Americans to secure credit — the lifeblood of expansion in recent years — crimping the appetite of consumers, whose spending amounts to 70 percent of the economy.

Joblessness has accelerated, and employers have slashed working hours even for those on their payrolls, shrinking the size of paychecks just as workers need them the most.

Now, add to that unsavory mix the word from automakers that sales plunged in June — by 28 percent for Ford, 21 percent for Toyota and 18 percent for General Motors — a sharp sign that consumers are pulling back, making manufacturers more likely to cut production and impose more layoffs. Until recently, the weak labor market has been marked more by the reluctance of employers to create new jobs than by mass layoffs.

Among economists, the sense is broadening that the troubles dogging the economy will be stubborn, leaving in place an uncomfortable combination of tight credit and scant job opportunities perhaps well into next year.

“It’s a slow-motion recession,” said Ethan Harris, chief United States economist for Lehman Brothers. “In a normal recession, things kind of collapse and get so weak that you have nowhere to go but up. But we’re not getting the classic two or three negative quarters. Instead, we’re expecting two years of sub-par growth. Growth that’s not enough to generate jobs. It’s kind of a chronic rather than an acute pain.”

Mr. Harris expects tepid economic growth and a shrinking labor market to persist through the fall of 2009.

The national unemployment rate climbed a full percentage point over the last year to 5.5 percent in May, according to the Labor Department. That does not include people who are jobless and have given up looking for work, or people who have been bumped to part-time jobs from full-time. Add in those people and the so-called underemployment rate rises to 9.7 percent, up from 8.3 percent in May 2007, according to the Labor Department.

Goldman Sachs forecasts that the unemployment rate will peak at 6.4 percent late in 2009 before the picture improves, meaning that the painful process of shedding jobs may be only half-way complete.

“The labor market is clearly deteriorating, and it’s highly likely to keep deteriorating,” said Andrew Tilton, an economist at Goldman Sachs. “It’s clear that the housing downturn and credit crunch are still very much under way. Clearly, there are more jobs to be lost in housing, finance and construction — hundreds of thousands of more jobs to be lost collectively.”

On Thursday, the Labor Department will release its snapshot of the job market for June. Economists generally expect the report to show 60,000 more jobs lost, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline.

But many anticipate the unemployment rate will nudge down a little bit, swinging back from an abrupt climb that could have been exaggerated by survey glitches in the previous month, when the rate jumped by half a percentage point — the sharpest one-month spike in 22 years.

If the unemployment rate were to hold steady or rise, that would likely spook markets, underscoring the impact of the economic slowdown.

“Slowing wage growth and falling employment is absolutely toxic if your business is selling anything to consumers,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist for High Frequency Economics.

Recent indications lend credence to the view that the job market is in the grip of a sustained downturn. Three weeks in a row, new unemployment claims have exceeded 380,000, a level generally associated with recession. Construction spending fell in May. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, which tracks attitudes about business and personal finance, has dropped to a depth last seen in 1980.

On the factory floor, a weak dollar has been fanning export sales. The I.S.M. Manufacturing Index — a widely watched gauge of factory activity — nudged up in June to 50.2 from 49.6 in May, entering barely positive territory, which indicates a slight expansion.

But that mostly reflected a buildup of inventories and higher prices for raw materials, and not an improvement in orders for factory goods, said Stuart G. Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Service Group in a note to clients. If business stays weak and orders do not materialize, factory layoffs could accelerate. Indeed, the employment component of the index declined to its lowest level in five years.

The slide in the labor market has become both symptom and cause of a weak economy, pulling many families into a downward spiral. Back when housing prices were still rising, Americans borrowed exuberantly against the value of their homes to finance renovations, vacations and shopping sprees. But that artery of finance has constricted considerably along with access to credit cards, forcing a reversion to the traditional limits of household finance. Millions of American families must now confine their spending to what they can bring home from work.

With job losses growing and working hours shrinking, many paychecks are eroding, prompting millions of families to cut their spending. Soaring prices for food and gasoline are overwhelming modest wage gains for most workers, leaving households with even less money to spend. All of which deprives struggling businesses of sales, prompting them to shed more workers, sending the cycle down another turn. Starbucks announced on Tuesday that it would close stores and eliminate up to 12,000 jobs, about 7 percent of its work force.

The fear of a downward spiral prompted the Bush administration to unleash $100 billion worth of tax rebates in the hopes that recipients would spend money and spur sales. The Treasury has already dispensed more than $78 billion, and the money appears to be finding its way into cash registers, with consumer spending climbing by 0.8 percent in May, according to the Commerce Department.

Economists expect the rebates will continue to help retail sales through the summer, fueling modest economic growth that spares some jobs and prevents an outright contraction.

But few expect these rebate-laced sales to expand the job market, because businesses understand that the one-time surge of money will wear off later this summer.

Many experts expect the economy to then be pulled back into the weeds by the same forces that have led the downturn — declining home prices, tighter credit and leaner paychecks.

“It’s going to be very hard to overcome those headwinds,” said Mr. Harris, the Lehman economist.

Service Sector Data Adds to Inflation Anxiety

NYT, July 4, 2008
REUTERS

The United States service sector shrank unexpectedly in June, according to a closely watched survey released on Thursday, while inflation pressures soared to a record high for the survey’s 11-year history.

The Institute for Supply Management’s measure of employment in the vital service sector hit a record low, which could fan fears of a return to low growth and high inflation, known as stagflation, that was last seen in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

The data also points up the quandary facing the Federal Reserve, which cut benchmark interest rates to support the weak economy at the risk of adding to price pressures. It is now expected to keep rates steady while waiting to see if inflation becomes a bigger problem.

The institute’s nonmanufacturing index was down to 48.2 for June, from 51.7 in May. A reading below 50 signals contraction.

“The nonmanufacturing results were decisively weak in a survey that typically does not show decisive movements,” said Pierre Ellis, senior economist at Decision Economics in New York.

Economists had expected a reading of 51.0, according to the median of 76 forecasts in a poll by Reuters.

The service sector represents about 80 percent of American economic activity, including businesses like banks, airlines, hotels and restaurants.

On Tuesday, the institute released results of another survey that showed manufacturing expanded in June for the first time in five months, helped by a weak dollar. That report also showed that inflation pressures soared to their highest since the stagflation-ravaged 1970s.

If there was any good news for the Fed, it was the suggestion that price rises in the service sector were not being passed on to consumers completely.

“Yes, prices are higher, but it’s not a total pass-through to the end consumer,” said Anthony S. Nieves, chairman of the institute’s nonmanufacturing business survey committee. “It’s more about eroding profit margins.”

Outlook Darker as Jobs Are Lost

NYT, July 4, 2008
LOUIS UCHITELLE

The nation’s employers eliminated tens of thousands of jobs in June for the sixth consecutive month in a steady chipping away of the work force that seems likely to leave the economy very weak through Election Day.

Responding quickly to the government employment report, issued Thursday, the presidential candidates called for action, beyond the recent stimulus package, to reverse the deterioration. In past downturns, the Federal Reserve saved the day, or tried to, by cutting interest rates. This time, however, with the Fed having already cut rates drastically, appeals are increasingly going to the White House and Congress.

“The numbers are telling us that there is an ongoing deterioration in the labor market at a relatively rapid clip,” said Jan Hatzius, chief domestic economist at Goldman Sachs. “It is a sign that the fiscal stimulus, the tax rebates, are failing to lift the broader economy.”

Apart from the 62,000 jobs eliminated in June — and 438,000 since January — most workers lost ground to inflation last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. While the average weekly wage of most ordinary workers was up 2.8 percent in the 12 months through June, the Consumer Price Index was up more than 4 percent.

“Workers just don’t have the bargaining power to fend off this erosion,” said Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

The erosion of purchasing power, in turn, helps to explain the dismally low consumer confidence numbers in recent weeks. The housing market continues to sag, with little hope of improvement soon.

Adding to the gloom, stock prices plunged this week, pushing a crucial market gauge officially into bear territory, or 20 percent off its peak. And the unemployment rate, which had jumped half a percentage point in May, stayed at 5.5 percent in June, dashing hopes that a horde of young people hunting for jobs would find them and unemployment would fall back.

Few teenagers and new college graduates found work, the bureau reported. What’s more, the percentage of unemployed adult workers, 25 and over, ticked up for the second straight month, and various forecasters said that by Election Day, the unemployment rate would probably be 6 percent or more — a level last seen in the early 1990s, in the aftermath of a recession.

During the last 50 years, each time the economy has lost jobs for six straight months, a recession was ultimately declared.

The last two recessions, in 1990-1 and in 2001, started in the very month that employment began to shrink. That might turn out to be the case this time, too, once all the data is finally revised. But with jobs disappearing, the economy managed to expand in the first quarter by a weak 1 percent and probably dodged a contraction in the second quarter as well, in the view of Nigel Gault, chief domestic economist at Global Insight, a forecasting and consulting firm.

“We have not really had a downturn quite like this one in which we lose jobs month after month but the economy somehow manages to grow,” Mr. Gault said.

He and Ian Shepherdson, chief domestic economist for High Frequency Economics, see a recession starting in the fall, just in time for the election. By then, the monthly job losses are likely to have accelerated.

As consumers lose buying power because of weakened wages and high gasoline prices, companies will respond, Mr. Shepherdson said, with bigger layoffs, like those announced this week by Starbucks and American Airlines.

“Right now, the economy is not shrinking because of the tax rebates,” he said, referring to the $107 billion in checks being mailed by the federal government to millions of Americans over three months.

As a supplement, Senator Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic candidate, called on Congress and President Bush to enact “energy rebates” to offset the surge in fuel prices, create a fund to help families avoid foreclosure, extend unemployment insurance benefits beyond the present 26 weeks and channel money to states suffering the most in the current downturn.

Senator John McCain, the Republican candidate, asked Congress to help families facing foreclosure and to enact “a jobs-first economic plan,” as well as to lower health costs.

Responding to the jobs report, Dana Perino, the White House press spokeswoman, acknowledged that the nation was “in a period of slow growth,” which was having “an impact on employment.” So far, she said, 105 million rebate checks have gone out, totaling over $86 billion.

The job cuts were greatest in a category called professional and business services, which lost 51,000 jobs, most of them held by temporary workers. Construction, devastated by the collapse in home prices, was next on the list.

For the 12th straight month, employment in that sector shrank, this time by 43,000 workers. Manufacturing, in constant decline, lost 33,000 jobs in June. And there were job losses in a number of other areas, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.

Indeed, the only notable increases in the private sector were in health care, restaurant work and other food services, and in each of these areas the rise was at only half the pace of a year ago, the Bureau said.

Donald Davis, a 35-year-old truck driver in Birmingham, Ala., certainly feels the pain. He was laid off on Easter as a driver for a concrete company, and has regularly thumbed through postings at a job placement center ever since, without luck. “Everything is at a standstill,” Mr. Davis said. “Nobody wants to hire anybody right now.”

State and local governments, on the other hand, continued to hire, adding 29,000 jobs last month, and more than 100,000 over the last six months. But most of these governments were operating on budgets enacted for the fiscal year that ended last Monday. The new budgets are expected to contain sharp cost cuts and payroll reductions as the states and municipalities adjust to shrinking tax revenues because of the housing crisis and the weak economy.

“My guess,” said Mr. Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, “is that the job declines across the economy are greater than the monthly numbers we are now seeing, and that will be evident when revisions are published later this year.”

Michael M. Grynbaum contributed reporting.

Saturday, June 21, 2008

SAVE OUR COASTS

To: Prime Minister of India and To: Secretary, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India

WE REJECT THE PROPOSED CMZ NOTIFICATION

On 1 May 2008 the Government of India has published the draft Coastal Management Zone (CMZ) Notification, with the ostensible purpose of seeking from the public objections or suggestions, to be sent in within 60 days of the aforementioned date.

The CMZ notification, in terms of its character and contents, in the nature and course of its preparation and in the way it is being thrust upon us, is the perfect embodiment of callousness, injustice and assault on environment and livelihood.

THE BACKDROP TO CMZ

With some 8000 Km of coastline, India possesses an unbelievable wealth of coastal biodiversity, important for its own sake and for ensuring the livelihood security of tens of millions of fishworkers and nutrition security of hundreds of millions of India’s citizens.

One would have expected the Government to take the greatest pains to protect this incredible asset. But the most it did was to promulgate, in February 1991, the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) Notification. Please note, not an Act, nor even a set of Rules, but only a Notification; something that by its nature is not sufficient for dealing with a multi-disciplinary matter involving multiple existing statutes and something that may be amended without consulting the Legislature. But notwithstanding this and other important limitations, the original CRZ notification, had it been properly implemented, would have been considerably effective in protecting coastal environments and resources from depredations.

But that was not to be. Amendments came in droves, the great bulk of them directed towards diluting the intent and scope of the CRZ. And the tragedy is that the CRZ today, even in its grossly diluted form, remains unimplemented along long stretches of the Indian coastline.

What is the reason for this non-implementation? It is administrative lethargy, myopia and yielding to the pressures of lobbies having an unhealthy appetite for coastal land and resources.

But with astonishing temerity, the same governmental setup that is guilty of not implementing CRZ has proclaimed this non-implementation as the reason for a new and atrociously permissive notification, the CMZ!

And what is this CMZ? Notwithstanding repeated demands from coastal fishworkers, environmental activists and the civil society, the government has not come up with a comprehensive legislation (Act). What it has proposed instead is another Notification to replace the CRZ Notification. This proposed Notification, to put it in brief, regularizes the violations to CRZ and opens the way to further depredations of our coastal ecology and environment. And as it is just another notification, it can easily be made still more permissive through a new set of administrative amendments.

WHY WE REJECT THE CMZ NOTIFICATION

I. Conservation of coastal resources and protection of lives and livelihood options of communities dependent thereon is a multidisciplinary exercise involving multiple existing statutes. Therefore only a comprehensive Act and not a Notification can provide the legal framework for the same.
II. The contents of the draft CMZ notification were decided without consultation with fishworkers’ (the main stakeholders) organisations or with citizens groups directly involved with coastal environmental issues.
III. The publication of this draft, inviting “objections or suggestions”, was confined to the Gazette of India and to a site on the Net, and is in English, so as to keep the bulk of concerned citizens unaware of its contents.
IV. The CMZ condones and regularizes all violations of CRZ Notification 1991.
V. Its implementation has been left on the same CZMAs (Coastal Zone Management Authorities) that have so shamefully failed in implementing CRZ norms.
VI. It replaces clearly delineated restrictions with yet to be prepared ICZMPs (Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plans) having vague and inappropriate guidelines, thus removing the restrictions on damaging activities.
VII. Moreover, the aforesaid guidelines, as opposed to the far clearer CRZ restrictions, are incomprehensible to common coastal and fisher people – largest stakeholders and custodians of our coastal resources – making it more difficult for them to intervene.
VIII. While for CMZ-I areas the main concern appears to be conservation, for areas under other categories (CMZ II to IV) the only concern appears to be vulnerability. Thus the ‘set back line’ has no conservation parameter attached to it. This is dangerous for large tracts of the coast.
IX. The area indicators of CMZ categories are confusing and contradictory; this will make implementation and enforcement impossible.
X. The CMZ Notification fails to indicate basic parameters of integration in the suggested ICZMPs, thus divesting it of any significance and turning it into a misnomer that can be used by powerful interest groups.
XI. It indicates no regulation with regard to fishing and fishery related activities and this is ominous for both coastal ecology and traditional fishers. It welcomes unbridled exploitation of coastal water life through use of aggressive and destructive gears.
XII. The Management Methodology given in the draft CMZ Notification confines itself exclusively to technical criteria of management. There is not even a word regarding the human resources of management. It describes (inadequately) how to manage without indicating who is to manage.
XIII. It has continued with the main negative aspect of CRZ – shutting out the main stakeholders, the traditional fishworkers, from management and monitoring.

OUR DEMANDS

In view of the above we demand the following:

- Scrap the draft CMZ Notification, 2008

- Prepare and enact, through democratic consultation with all stakeholders, especially fishworkers, a Comprehensive Legislation (Act) that will ensure conservation of coastal environment, ecology and natural resources and protect traditional livelihood options dependent on those

- Invoke the Original CRZ Notification 1991 pending the enactment of the Comprehensive Legislation,

- Bring all violators of CRZ norms to book, and immediately


Sincerely,

The Undersigned


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Friday, June 20, 2008

Deals With Iraq Are Set to Bring Oil Giants Back

ANDREW E. KRAMER
NYT, June 19, 2008

BAGHDAD — Four Western oil companies are in the final stages of negotiations this month on contracts that will return them to Iraq, 36 years after losing their oil concession to nationalization as Saddam Hussein rose to power.

Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and BP — the original partners in the Iraq Petroleum Company — along with Chevron and a number of smaller oil companies, are in talks with Iraq’s Oil Ministry for no-bid contracts to service Iraq’s largest fields, according to ministry officials, oil company officials and an American diplomat.

The deals, expected to be announced on June 30, will lay the foundation for the first commercial work for the major companies in Iraq since the American invasion, and open a new and potentially lucrative country for their operations.

The no-bid contracts are unusual for the industry, and the offers prevailed over others by more than 40 companies, including companies in Russia, China and India. The contracts, which would run for one to two years and are relatively small by industry standards, would nonetheless give the companies an advantage in bidding on future contracts in a country that many experts consider to be the best hope for a large-scale increase in oil production.

There was suspicion among many in the Arab world and among parts of the American public that the United States had gone to war in Iraq precisely to secure the oil wealth these contracts seek to extract. The Bush administration has said that the war was necessary to combat terrorism. It is not clear what role the United States played in awarding the contracts; there are still American advisers to Iraq’s Oil Ministry.

Sensitive to the appearance that they were profiting from the war and already under pressure because of record high oil prices, senior officials of two of the companies, speaking only on the condition that they not be identified, said they were helping Iraq rebuild its decrepit oil industry.

For an industry being frozen out of new ventures in the world’s dominant oil-producing countries, from Russia to Venezuela, Iraq offers a rare and prized opportunity.

While enriched by $140 per barrel oil, the oil majors are also struggling to replace their reserves as ever more of the world’s oil patch becomes off limits. Governments in countries like Bolivia and Venezuela are nationalizing their oil industries or seeking a larger share of the record profits for their national budgets. Russia and Kazakhstan have forced the major companies to renegotiate contracts.

The Iraqi government’s stated goal in inviting back the major companies is to increase oil production by half a million barrels per day by attracting modern technology and expertise to oil fields now desperately short of both. The revenue would be used for reconstruction, although the Iraqi government has had trouble spending the oil revenues it now has, in part because of bureaucratic inefficiency.

For the American government, increasing output in Iraq, as elsewhere, serves the foreign policy goal of increasing oil production globally to alleviate the exceptionally tight supply that is a cause of soaring prices.

The Iraqi Oil Ministry, through a spokesman, said the no-bid contracts were a stop-gap measure to bring modern skills into the fields while the oil law was pending in Parliament.

It said the companies had been chosen because they had been advising the ministry without charge for two years before being awarded the contracts, and because these companies had the needed technology.

A Shell spokeswoman hinted at the kind of work the companies might be engaged in. “We can confirm that we have submitted a conceptual proposal to the Iraqi authorities to minimize current and future gas flaring in the south through gas gathering and utilization,” said the spokeswoman, Marnie Funk. “The contents of the proposal are confidential.”

While small, the deals hold great promise for the companies.

“The bigger prize everybody is waiting for is development of the giant new fields,” Leila Benali, an authority on Middle East oil at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said in a telephone interview from the firm’s Paris office. The current contracts, she said, are a “foothold” in Iraq for companies striving for these longer-term deals.

Any Western oil official who comes to Iraq would require heavy security, exposing the companies to all the same logistical nightmares that have hampered previous attempts, often undertaken at huge cost, to rebuild Iraq’s oil infrastructure.

And work in the deserts and swamps that contain much of Iraq’s oil reserves would be virtually impossible unless carried out solely by Iraqi subcontractors, who would likely be threatened by insurgents for cooperating with Western companies.

Yet at today’s oil prices, there is no shortage of companies coveting a contract in Iraq. It is not only one of the few countries where oil reserves are up for grabs, but also one of the few that is viewed within the industry as having considerable potential to rapidly increase production.

David Fyfe, a Middle East analyst at the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based group that monitors oil production for the developed countries, said he believed that Iraq’s output could increase to about 3 million barrels a day from its current 2.5 million, though it would probably take longer than the six months the Oil Ministry estimated.

Mr. Fyfe’s organization estimated that repair work on existing fields could bring Iraq’s output up to roughly four million barrels per day within several years. After new fields are tapped, Iraq is expected to reach a plateau of about six million barrels per day, Mr. Fyfe said, which could suppress current world oil prices.

The contracts, the two oil company officials said, are a continuation of work the companies had been conducting here to assist the Oil Ministry under two-year-old memorandums of understanding. The companies provided free advice and training to the Iraqis. This relationship with the ministry, said company officials and an American diplomat, was a reason the contracts were not opened to competitive bidding.

A total of 46 companies, including the leading oil companies of China, India and Russia, had memorandums of understanding with the Oil Ministry, yet were not awarded contracts.

The no-bid deals are structured as service contracts. The companies will be paid for their work, rather than offered a license to the oil deposits. As such, they do not require the passage of an oil law setting out terms for competitive bidding. The legislation has been stalled by disputes among Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish parties over revenue sharing and other conditions.

The first oil contracts for the majors in Iraq are exceptional for the oil industry.

They include a provision that could allow the companies to reap large profits at today’s prices: the ministry and companies are negotiating payment in oil rather than cash.

“These are not actually service contracts,” Ms. Benali said. “They were designed to circumvent the legislative stalemate” and bring Western companies with experience managing large projects into Iraq before the passage of the oil law.

A clause in the draft contracts would allow the companies to match bids from competing companies to retain the work once it is opened to bidding, according to the Iraq country manager for a major oil company who did not consent to be cited publicly discussing the terms.

Assem Jihad, the Oil Ministry spokesman, said the ministry chose companies it was comfortable working with under the charitable memorandum of understanding agreements, and for their technical prowess. “Because of that, they got the priority,” he said.

In all cases but one, the same company that had provided free advice to the ministry for work on a specific field was offered the technical support contract for that field, one of the companies’ officials said.

The exception is the West Qurna field in southern Iraq, outside Basra. There, the Russian company Lukoil, which claims a Hussein-era contract for the field, had been providing free training to Iraqi engineers, but a consortium of Chevron and Total, a French company, was offered the contract. A spokesman for Lukoil declined to comment.

Charles Ries, the chief economic official in the American Embassy in Baghdad, described the no-bid contracts as a bridging mechanism to bring modern technology into the fields before the oil law was passed, and as an extension of the earlier work without charge.

To be sure, these are not the first foreign oil contracts in Iraq, and all have proved contentious.

The Kurdistan regional government, which in many respects functions as an independent entity in northern Iraq, has concluded a number of deals. Hunt Oil Company of Dallas, for example, signed a production-sharing agreement with the regional government last fall, though its legality is questioned by the central Iraqi government. The technical support agreements, however, are the first commercial work by the major oil companies in Iraq.

The impact, experts say, could be remarkable increases in Iraqi oil output.

While the current contracts are unrelated to the companies’ previous work in Iraq, in a twist of corporate history for some of the world’s largest companies, all four oil majors that had lost their concessions in Iraq are now back.

But a spokesman for Exxon said the company’s approach to Iraq was no different from its work elsewhere.

“Consistent with our longstanding, global business strategy, ExxonMobil would pursue business opportunities as they arise in Iraq, just as we would in other countries in which we are permitted to operate,” the spokesman, Len D’Eramo, said in an e-mailed statement.

But the company is clearly aware of the history. In an interview with Newsweek last fall, the former chief executive of Exxon, Lee Raymond, praised Iraq’s potential as an oil-producing country and added that Exxon was in a position to know. “There is an enormous amount of oil in Iraq,” Mr. Raymond said. “We were part of the consortium, the four companies that were there when Saddam Hussein threw us out, and we basically had the whole country.”

James Glanz and Jad Mouawad contributed reporting from New York.

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Advertisements: a literary estimate

----Gargi

A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,

Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it

Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds. (Palgrave 424)

Yeats seems to have expressed very aptly the condition of the contemporary world in ‘The Second Coming’, with multiple human desires for some unknown bliss, hovering around the Utopian state of existence promised by the bulk of advertisements. As the world has moved on through the labyrinthine route of various ‘ism’s, each generating ‘enlightenment’ for the human species in its own right, this era of advertisements seems to be giving rise to a different sort of ‘enlightenment’ – by creating an unquenchable thirst for a material sense of existence, enriched by the craze to possess and parade.


To say that the advertisements, all under a universal heading, have simply misdirected people would be quite unfair, since some of them like those on epidemics, public health and hygiene and literacy mission, have indeed generated awareness about certain crucial issues related to the masses. As for example, Buladi needs no introduction and along with her the fact that AIDS need not be feared as contagious and can be prevented. Yet, a study of the majority of commercial ads tossed at the people in the third-world countries, more specifically India, would reveal the profitably political use of language, both verbal and non-verbal – mainly utopian and sexist in nature – flourishing parasitically upon the beliefs blindly registered in the name of ‘tradition’ and ‘culture’; those which need to be reviewed and rethought, and indeed are being reanalyzed in the age of intellectual globalization, but at the ground levels, on the contrary, are being reinforced more strongly than ever, for the purpose of bringing in maximum returns.


Let us go then, you and I,

When the evening is spread out against the sky

Like a patient etherized upon a table… (Eliot 13)

Eliot scarcely knew while penning these lines of ‘The Love Song of J.Alfred Prufrock’, that they would form such a perfect invitation sometime down in the twenty first century to make a survey of the advertisements – those that haunt the mind and lure the human beings, the magic of ‘Temptation’ recreated for both the sexes alike, this time. To continue in the words of the poet,

Oh, do not ask, ‘What is it?’

Let us go and make our visit. (13)


The first aspect of the language of contemporary advertisements is the utopian vision they generate in the minds of the consumers. Each ad aims at creating the illusion that just the purchase of that particular commodity would make life complete – in every sense of the term. The problem lies not in blowing one’s own trumpet, since that is the prerequisite for an ad to become so, but rather in the exploitation of human emotions and capabilities, especially the tendency to dream, which is used by the ads today as the principle instrument to achieve their purpose, for Romanticism was not just a literary movement restricted to a particular phase of history, it forms till date the basic pattern of human lives.


The utopian nature of the advertisements today is perhaps best exemplified by the automobile ads. As the Santro or Indica or Chevrolet speeds down the splendid streets, smooth and most importantly, unbroken, surrounded by greenery, under the blue sky, every innocent aspiring heart is filled with the desire to own one someday; the dream-colored impact of the visual recreating the magic of Shelley’s ‘To A Skylark’:

All the earth and air

With thy voice is loud,

As, when the night is bare,

From one lonely cloud

The moon rains out her beams, and heaven is overflowed. (Palgrave 244)



The ‘willing suspension of disbelief’ hardly allows the doubt to creep in that it’s no longer ‘one lonely cloud’ but rather, a smog, and the ‘voice’ is in fact, the noise around, both encapsulated within a term better known as ‘pollution’. Incidentally, the advertisement of the latest little one toddling into the big field, better known as Nano, declares its entry as the one ‘to end all speculation, debate and talk’ – a line, though probably unintentionally, nevertheless quite explicitly, silencing the dialogic tradition and denying heterodoxy. One would, however, be reminded of Amartya Sen as he writes in The Argumentative Indian:

A defeated argument that refuses to be obliterated can remain very alive. (Sen 06)

Amidst the joyous celebration of the birth of the little one, there’s always an apprehension about the future, in this case in the minds of the target audience, who rarely are able to forget, after all’s done and said, the exclusively street-made jams and jellies which earn frowns and dissatisfaction at the work-place, even now, when the roads are free of the millions of new toddlers. But nevertheless, initially, the mesmerizing impact of the rose-colored dream is absolute.


The advertisements of the motorbikes would reveal more clearly the second aspect of the language of contemporary ads, i.e., sexism. As the gallant young man in his macho leather jacket rides the brand, say for instance, Pulsar, the beautiful ladies of the neighborhood lose their hearts and long for a chivalrous lift to come their way. The promised prize is not just a dream-ride, but a dream companion, as well. In fact, the man rides on with his beloved clinging onto him like a nail to a magnet, as if living the lines of Robert Browning’s ‘The Last Ride Together’:

What need to strive with a life awry?

Had I said that, had I done this,

So might I gain, so might I miss.

Might she have loved me? just as well

She might have hated, who can tell!

Where had I been now if the worst befell?

And here we are riding, she and I. (Loucks 152)


It would be worthwhile, indeed, to examine the Indian advertisements through the looking glass of gender, for if the advertisements have revolutionized the global economic scenario, then the women modeling for the various products, ranging from washing powder to shaving cream, diaper to automobile, have served as the perfect depiction of gateways to pleasure, thereby enhancing demand and increasing sale. Though it might be argued that ads opened up new employment opportunities for women, which is very true, nevertheless they also led to the complete commodification of the second sex, to the extent that a hoarding advertising sanitary ware at the bypass, near Salt Lake Stadium, showed a woman with bare shoulders wearing a string around her neck with a basin-shaped locket dangling from it, till a few days back. Horrendous exceptions apart, even the normal traditional representation of women as daughters, mothers and wives in these ads tend to strengthen the stereotypes. Though there is a serious subversion in such ads, in treating the things considered as holy and auspicious essentials defining the woman in the society, such as sindoor, mangalsutra and the like, as sheer make-up ingredients, yet this subversion is detectable only to the people offering a serious afterthought to the interpretation of these mesmerizing moments – a number comprising, perhaps, the smallest minority in the contemporary world.


The ads of cosmetics, soaps and shampoos invariably remind one of Byron’s famous proclamation:

She walks in beauty, like the night

Of cloudless climes and starry skies;

And all that’s best of dark and bright

Meet in her aspect and her eyes. (Palgrave 177)

There can perhaps, be no better example to illustrate this than the famous brand ‘fair and lovely’, which assures a girl success in every field hitherto out of reach, be it marriage, job or recognition in the ‘feminine’ fields of glamour, by virtue of fair skin. The fact that ‘fair’ is a visual quality and ‘lovely’, a natural attribute, is completely obliterated, as if ushering in the colonial idea of ‘memsahib’, implying that fair is lovely. Though half the world turns vegetarian, flesh will continue to make a difference. The devastating dream of Toni Morrison’s ‘The Bluest Eye’ is reinforced with added colors and hues; while Melville’s memorable warning is altogether forgotten:

…there yet lurks an elusive something in the innermost idea of this hue, which

strikes more of panic to the soul than that redness which affrights in blood.

(Melville 160)

and further:

Bethink thee of the albatross: whence come those clouds of spiritual wonderment

and pale dread in which that white phantom sails in all imaginations? Not

Coleridge first threw that spell; but God’s great, unflattering laureate,

Nature. (160)


However, leaving the so-called ‘women’s utilities’ apart, the smoothness of a Gillette shave also requires a most economically dressed woman stroking the cheek of the smart dude, as testimony. Even the deodorants for men, logically offering solution to one of the gravest problems faced by humankind, with a flesh and blood body and sweat glands, require women, fair, slim and beautiful, to sniff. It would be worthwhile in this context to remember the happening brand in today’s market, Set Wet, with its lucrative slogan: ‘very very sexy’. Employing rationale beyond the magic of the audio-visual would, however, puzzle the mind in looking for a relationship between the two, the adjective and the noun, suggesting a severe case of malapropism.


It is indeed remarkable to notice how the ads today re-emphasize the socially constructed ‘masculine’ and ‘feminine’ domains of work, representing them as more natural than biological sex. The baby-products, for instance, Johnson’s baby soap or cream or oil or shampoo, will always show the mother toying with the child, recreating the ever-enchanting myth of motherhood; while fathers only appear when the ad deals with something more serious, say an insurance policy or better still, marriage. A glaring example in his context is provided by the advertisement of Vicks Vaporub, which came on screen sometime back, wherein the terribly befuddled father asks his son, who is suffering from a severe cold, what his mother, who has apparently gone somewhere, would have given him had she been at home. Such ads invariably bring to the sensible mind a feeling of awe and an urgency to re-read the books of science, since asexual reproduction in human beings went completely unrecorded until this ad hinted at it. Moreover, such ads are extremely unfair in their representation of the fathers as such terribly unaware and ignorant creatures, when today a large number of men, as fathers, actually take interest in the well-being of their children, even within the domestic space, and are aware of their regular needs too, apart from education, home and marriage loans. This sort of misrepresentation tends to politicize the domestic space to a larger degree, making the divide between ‘masculine’ and ‘feminine’ sharper and stronger.


Incidentally, the children too are males, unless the advertisement specifically requires a female child to serve its purpose, in say for instance, the advertisement of Mediker, probably trying to suggest that Sons and Lovers never have such ignoble problems as lice. But otherwise, be it chyavanprash or health drink, toothpaste or cough syrup, the child in question, is invariably, a male child. Even when the ads seem to be gender-sensitive in the depiction of young boys and girls, advocating the abilities of girls as in case of TVS Scooty, where the girls are shown are riders, a man is always brought in to show how he’s been outsmarted by the girl riding the Scooty. The attitude adopted, immediately reminds one of Alexander Pope’s age of the ‘battle of sexes’, and the issues tend to lose their seriousness under the impact of mockery.


Interestingly, when much is being spoken on the intellectual front, about the ‘family’ as an important social unit, specially in the context of gender, since it has the most significant contribution in the acculturation of an individual, the depiction of ‘families’ in the contemporary advertisements point out how the conventional ideas related to this unit can be kept intact and reinforced as ideal, even in the twenty first century. Apart from the role-identification of ‘mother’ and ‘father’, as discussed above, the ads also try to recreate the magic of certain ‘comic’ experiences within the domestic space. ‘Comic’ remains within quotes, however, since nothing is quite ‘comic’ until it is politically constructed and recognized to be so, in as far as institutions – social, commercial or political – are concerned, at the expense of certain other things, and therefore, need to be examined for their comicality.



The recent ad of Britannia Mariegold biscuit shows a homemaker blissfully sipping her tea while questions are asked to her about how she manages to run such a heavy routine everyday with such perfection, to which she replies: ‘Why! I’m given this fifteen-minutes holiday, each day’, and just as she completes the statement, her mother-in-law’s voice calls her off-screen, to which she replies promptly, exclaims and rushes leaving her tea behind. This is just one instance; however, there are several such ads which tend to keep intact the hilarious ‘monster-in-law’ image to bring in humor and strengthen hegemony. The codes of patriarchy are kept intact, since the poor mother-in-law, is nonetheless, a powerful patriarchal construct, either to be feared or ridiculed; the success of the formula, is tested and confirmed.


A recent exception, and a happy one at that, has been the ad of Canara Bank, which shows a mother-in-law belonging to a southern state of India, learning Punjabi willingly, in order to make her daughter-in-law belonging to Punjab, feel at home and a part of the family, on her arrival, away from her dear ones. Similarly, the ad of Havell’s cables makes one feel hopeful when the son leaves aside his book to find a bit of cable, which he twists into a holder and brings to his mother ,who’s a daily-wager and was almost burning her hands while making chapattis for him over the naked flame. Such ads, however, transform commercial realities into poetic expression through their profound understanding of human feelings, reminding one of Sidney’s declaration:

Nature never set forth the earth in so rich tapestry as divers poets have done;

neither with pleasant rivers, fruitful trees, sweet-smelling flowers, nor

whatsoever else may make the too-much-loved earth more lovely; her

world is brazen, the poets only deliver a golden.(Enright 08)


But such expressions are rare. Most of the ads retain their characteristic superficiality trying to reap the most out of what the masses of a developing country with massive illiteracy have been used to, thoughtlessly, in the name of legacy. Quite ironically, having attained its climax in Marx, the term ‘revolution’ acquired a dramatic shape and form in the mould of Information Technology – which today by the virtue of ads – has become the largest force which the ‘proletariat’ (in every aspect of the term – class as well as gender) has to combat. But when the exceptions, as cited above, are placed next to the mainstream, one cannot help regretting the gross misuse of such enormous potential, since human beings are driven day in day out in their lives by the impact of these advertisements. On a concluding note, it would be significant to recall Mark Twain, who in puts the blame of the defeat of the Southerners in the American Civil War of 1864 on Sir Walter Scott, saying that:

…for it is not conceivable that this little sham castle would ever have

been built if he had not run the people mad, a couple of generations ago,

with his mediaeval romances. The South has not yet recovered from the

debilitating influence of his books. (Twain 268)

Contemporary advertisements play no less a role in making the global South what it is, giving to the people grossly misdirected dreams and vision, far away from the plane of reality which needs to be acknowledged and introspected, in order to move forward.



If Yeats began the discussion, let Christina Rossetti conclude it with her resonating lines:

Morning and evening

Maids heard the goblins cry:

‘Come buy our orchard fruits,

Come buy, come buy…’ (Ricks 460)

Perhaps, Rossetti would have been astonished to learn that the ‘Goblin Market’ can now seduce both the sexes alike, and probably, this entire phenomenon, i.e. the silver-screen with its portrayal of ‘Lemons and oranges’, ‘Melons and raspberries’ would have found a deserving expression from her pen, for she traced the link between literature and ‘market’ way back in the nineteenth century. Though her motive was largely to examine the condition of the women in nineteenth century England, and to spread the notion of sisterhood, nevertheless, the commercial concepts of ‘value’ and ‘exchange’ attained a literary status in her creation, as she suggested their role and impact on human lives. The turn of the twenty first century with ‘Come buy’ as its all-engulfing slogan, certainly adds a new edge to Rossetti’s reflection, and laments the absence of an updated sequel.








Reference

Palgrave, Francis Turner. Palgrave’s Golden Treasury. Calcutta: Oxford University Press.1992.
Eliot, T.S. Collected Poems 1909-1962. London: Faber and Faber. 1974.
Sen, Amartya. The Argumentative Indian. London: Penguin Books Ltd. 2005.
Loucks, James F. Robert Browning’s Poetry. New York: W.W.Norton & Company. 1979.
Melville, Herman. Moby Dick. New York: W.W.Norton & Company. 2002.
Enright,D.J. English Critical Texts. London: Oxford University Press. 1983.
Twain, Mark. Life on the Mississippi. USA: Penguin Group. 1988.
Ricks, Christopher. The Oxford Book of English Verse. New York: Oxford University Press. 1999.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Tibet: tremor on the roof of the world

Demonstrations unsure of goals or tactics

Mathieu Vernerey
Le Monde Diplomatique, April 2008

China is worried that the recent resentment and resistance among the Tibetans could spread to other major minorities whose traditional territories have been colonised and exploited by the majority Han Chinese. The Tibetans clearly want some form of autonomy, which they will not get.

The repression of the recent demonstrations in Tibet has shocked international public opinion. Thousands of Tibetans took to the streets, first in Lhasa, then in other towns, waving the Tibetan flag and chanting slogans demanding independence. They represent a clear rejection of 60 years of Chinese domination.

However, the presence of monks among the movement’s leaders has prompted questions about the real nature of the uprising, often described as a “Buddhist revolt”. Despite the brutality of police counter-measures, the unusual violence of many demonstrators has also blurred the image of a reputedly non-violent struggle. Rioters have targeted Han Chinese and Hui Muslim (1) civilians, suggesting the revolt may have ethnic or religious motives.

Symbolically the demonstrations started on 10 March, the anniversary of the 1959 uprising in Lhasa against Chinese intervention. The repression of this popular movement precipitated the flight of the Dalai Lama and his government to India. Thousands of refugees followed their example. However, although prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru welcomed the government of Tibet, he did not recognise it. Nor did the United Nations.

Historical questions

The invasion of Tibet in 1950 – or its “peaceful liberation” as the Chinese prefer to put it – raises historical questions that have yet to be resolved. It is emblematic of the recurrent difficulties encountered by the Chinese in their attempts to occupy and settle the region, and of the Tibetans’ failure to convince the modern world that their claims to independence have a historical basis.

China first claimed Tibet in the 13th century under the (Mongol) Yuan dynasty (1279-1368), then again in the 17th century under the (Manchu) Qing dynasty (1644-1911). During these two periods the Chinese empire reached its furthest extent westwards, thanks to successful military campaigns waged by the Yuan, who built on the remains of the Mongol empire that once dominated Asia, China and Tibet.

During the interim period, on the sidelines of China’s Ming dynasty (1368-1644), which was more interested in maritime conquest, Mongol princes left a lasting mark on Tibetan politics. Intervening in a domestic religious conflict in 1578, Altan Khan backed the Gelugpa lineage, bestowing on its head the title of Dalai Lama (ocean of wisdom). In 1642 Gushi Khan confirmed the political authority of the fifth Dalai Lama, strengthening existing links between Tibet and Mongolia, based on the choyon (guide and protector) relationship in which both parties are considered equals. The Mongol prince protected Tibet with his armies and in exchange Tibet’s spiritual leader offered guidance to Mongolia. This type of relationship also worked with Manchu China and, depending on the alliances in force, other neighbouring kingdoms.

Tibet has a long history of foreign interference, more often Mongol than Chinese, which explains its vulnerability. In 1720 it appealed to Manchu China for help driving out the Mongols. It resorted to the same expedient in 1792 to rid itself of the Nepalese. During this period the Chinese strove to reorganise the Tibetan system of government, but without establishing a permanent foothold. After the collapse of the Manchu Qing dynasty, the Chinese political leader Sun Yat-sen established the Nanking republic in 1912. Tibet proclaimed its independence a year later.

In 1914 envoys from the United Kingdom, China and Tibet signed a tripartite agreement at Shimla, in northern India, recognising a form of Chinese sovereignty. But the Chinese refused to treat the Tibetans as equals at the signing ceremony.

De facto independence

Tibet enjoyed de facto independence from then till 1949. China lapsed into internal disorder – conflict between warlords, followed by civil war between nationalists and communists – and foreign invasion by the French, British, Russians and Japanese.

Only a few months after proclaiming the People’s Republic of China Mao Zedong ordered the invasion of Tibet in 1950. At the recently formed United Nations the representatives of Nationalist China (Formosa, now known as Taiwan) convinced the Security Council that this was a domestic Chinese matter (2).

In 1951 Mao used the threat of military action to obtain Tibetan approval of a 17-point plan. It stipulated that “the Tibetan people shall return to the big family of the motherland”. In exchange the plan granted autonomous status providing for the continuation of the “existing political system... and the established status, functions and powers of the Dalai Lama.” But for the Tibetans he remained the country’s spiritual and temporal leader, contradicting the agreement. Moreover the Chinese failed to uphold any of their commitments.

When the Dalai Lama went into exile in 1959 he formally repudiated the agreement. He reinstated a government, set up a parliament and organised the refugee community, which remained determined to continue the struggle for independence. At the same time the Dalai Lama made it clear that he sought “the creation of a favourable climate by the immediate adoption of the essential measures as a condition precedent to negotiations for a peaceful settlement” (3). In 1979 China’s new leader, Deng Xiaoping, made it known that “apart from independence, all issues can be discussed” (4). Between then and 1985 four Tibetan delegations were allowed to visit their home country, which became an autonomous region (5) in 1965, to observe the progress that had been achieved. They returned unconvinced.

In the 1988 Strasbourg Proposal the Dalai Lama officially renounced independence, falling back on self-government and union with China. But in March 1989 the brutal repression of one of the largest demonstrations against the Chinese authorities since 1959 ended all dialogue. In repeated attempts to reopen negotiations the Dalai Lama proposed genuine self-government within the framework of Chinese sovereignty. Between 2002 and 2007 Chinese and Tibetan envoys met on six occasions, but the recent demonstrations and the authorities’ response suggest that history is repeating itself.

Hostility to China

The Buddhist religion is an integral part of Tibet’s identity but hostility to China now dominates nationalist sentiment. Though the majority of the population seems resigned, hatred of China is finding violent outlets. Beijing may accuse the Dalai Lama of being the main troublemaker, but a new generation is emerging over which the nation’s spiritual leader has less influence.

As China has strengthened its hold on the country, with a steadily increasing influx of settlers, Tibetans have been gradually sidelined. Development has not delivered its promised benefits and economic investment, largely colonialist in its aims, has failed to appease discontent exacerbated by persistent nationalism.

The violence that disfigured the Chinese quarter of Lhasa is not typical of the independence movement as a whole. Protests have brought together secular and religious elements, the latter brandishing portraits of the Dalai Lama as well as the Tibetan flag. Seen by his supporters as an exiled head of state, the spiritual guide has lost none of his authority, enjoying widespread recognition in and outside Tibet, even if some militants are advocating more direct action. He is still the cement of national unity. In their way even the Chinese authorities acknowledge his importance. As the Tibet Communist Party leader, Zhang Qingli, put it: “We are in the midst of a life-and-death struggle with the Dalai clique.”

The attitude of Tibetans living abroad to the Dalai Lama and the issue of independence is more complex. Independence has been a taboo ever since their leader officially abandoned the idea and confirmed his policy of openness and dialogue with Beijing. In October 2002 he explicitly appealed to militants to refrain from any form of anti-Chinese demonstration in public all over the world, in order to create a propitious atmosphere for dialogue. The call for restraint left many militants confused and discouraged.

Unsure what to do next

Until the outbreak of the recent unrest, China seemed to have achieved its ends, no longer the target of public criticism and credited with new respectability on account of its “goodwill”. Meanwhile, in the political arena, it arrogantly dismissed demands for self-government. The Tibetan independence movement has played on this behaviour, though it seems in some doubt as to what to do next.

Among those in exile there is no unified movement pulling together the various organisations advocating independence. None of them has managed to set out new proposals, replacing or complementing the line adopted by the government in exile. Most pro-independence campaigning inside Tibet is the work of isolated individuals or spontaneous, unpredictable gatherings without any clearly formulated strategy or goal.

The media build-up to the Olympic Games in Beijing offered a unique opportunity to denounce Chinese hegemony to the world. In India the five main pro-independence organisations joined forces to organise a march back into Tibet, setting out on 10 March. The Indian authorities promptly banned the operation, triggering the departure of another wave of marchers. Demonstrations started in Lhasa at the same time, gathering strength and spreading to other towns in Tibet and other provinces once occupied by Tibetans, which has not happened before. But though the movement has achieved a certain popular and militant synergy, it lacks political direction and visibility, raising the larger question of how Tibetans are represented and what means are available for them to express demands.

Most Tibetans still living in their home country see the government in exile as a legitimate entity, because it is consistent with the principle of the Dalai Lama’s sovereignty and rule. But they are wary of the government, blamed for not finding a solution to their present predicament and giving up the goal of independence. This disaffection spares the Dalai Lama himself.

However a distinction needs to be made between the government’s diplomatic efforts and the work of the Tibetan parliament in exile as a representative body. The parliament is supposed to represent the Tibetan people in its entirety, at home and abroad, if only symbolically due to the impossibility of organising a vote in Tibet.

Its only real electorate is the exiled community in India and Nepal, organised according to the three regions that traditionally formed Tibet. The five Buddhist schools also have their representatives, as do expatriates living in Europe and North America. The complex overlapping of constituencies does not make it any easier to determine quite what the parliament stands for.

Unvoiced split

The root problem is the Tibetans’ inability to institute proper political debate. The parliament operates without parties. The draft constitution does not condemn this. It simply does not refer to it, despite reforms on the separation of executive, legislative and judicial powers, voting rights, and the election of MPs and the prime minister by universal suffrage. But setting up democratic institutions is not enough to achieve democracy, particularly without parties to defend contrasting political ideals or goals. It is immediately obvious that there is no way of voicing the underlying split between advocates of independence, and those in favour of self-government. At the last general election, in exile, in March 2006, some MPs backed independence, but they have made no attempt since to put their commitment into practice. Of course it is difficult to oppose openly the views of the Dalai Lama.

There is little chance of political parties being formed in the near future, even if an increasing number of MPs now support independence, with talk of a pressure group on the sidelines of the parliament. The present situation — the precarious condition of refugees, the limited tolerance India can afford as their host, pressure from foreign governments not to upset the status quo, and Chinese reprisals targeting Tibetans at home — leaves the pro-independence faction very little room for manoeuvre.

The country may be on the brink of an uprising but it lacks the political direction without which the Lhasa spring will never bear fruit. Current events must bring back memories to the Chinese president, Hu Jintao, who was the Chinese Communist party leader in Tibet at the time of the 1989 demonstrations. He ordered out the troops and imposed martial law. He knows that a tremor on the roof of the world may be the precursor of a quake in Tiananmen Square.

The troubles are in danger of spilling over into other regions with separatist inclinations, particularly Xinjiang, with its Uighur population, and Inner Mongolia. Beijing must decide how best to reconcile its international image with measures to quell the domestic unrest that threatens its stability.


Translated by
Harry Forster

Mathieu Vernerey is a journalist


(1) China defines itself as a multi-ethnic country with 56 ethnic groups, Han Chinese making up 92% of the population. The People’s Republic established various autonomous regions for Tibetans, Hui, Uighurs and Mongols: Tibet, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia.
(2) Following the Lhasa uprising the UN passed three resolutions, in 1959, 1961 and 1965. The 1961 resolution called for “the cessation of practices which deprive the Tibetan people of their fundamental human rights and freedoms, including their right to self-determination.”
(3) Statement by the Dalai Lama in India on 20 June 1959.
(4) Message sent by Deng Xiaoping to the Dalai Lama’s elder brother, Gyalo Thondup, in Beijing in March 1979.
(5) The autonomous region covers the central part (U-tsang) of historical Tibet. The other two provinces (Kham and Amdo), traditionally considered part of the country, have become part of the Chinese province of Qinghai or the western extremities of Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan.